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Markets Stabilize as Ceasefire Optimism Softens Safe-Haven Demand Despite Fed Hawkish Bets | 29th May, 2026

Markets Regain Stability

Global financial markets are showing signs of stabilization as optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran ceasefire continues easing safe-haven demand across currency and commodity markets. While geopolitical fears have softened compared to earlier sessions, investors remain cautious as firm US inflation data reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain a hawkish policy stance for longer. Precious metals are struggling to regain momentum, while currencies such as the British Pound and Canadian Dollar remain relatively stable amid improving market sentiment.

Gold Forecast

Current Price and Context

Gold prices are pausing their recent recovery as stronger US inflation data revives expectations for prolonged Federal Reserve tightening despite easing geopolitical fears.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Ceasefire optimism reduces safe-haven metal demand

• US Economic Data: Firm inflation strengthens higher-for-longer Fed expectations

• FOMC Outcome: Hawkish policy outlook pressures non-yielding assets

• Trade Policy: Improved market sentiment limits defensive flows into Gold

• Monetary Policy: Elevated US yields remain bearish for precious metals

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Neutral to bearish

• Resistance: $4,700

• Support: $4,620

• Forecast: Gold may remain range-bound while Fed expectations dominate sentiment

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish Gold

• Catalysts: US inflation data and Fed commentary

Silver Forecast

Current Price and Context

Silver prices are hovering near the $76.00 region as easing interest rate concerns provide some stabilization after recent volatility.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Reduced market panic supports stabilization in metals

• US Economic Data: Inflation concerns continue limiting stronger upside momentum

• FOMC Outcome: Fed tightening expectations remain a headwind

• Trade Policy: Improving global sentiment supports industrial demand outlook

• Monetary Policy: Stable rate expectations help reduce volatility

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Neutral

• Resistance: $77.20

• Support: $75.40

• Forecast: Silver may consolidate while markets reassess Fed expectations

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Neutral Silver

• Catalysts: US yields and Dollar movement

GBP/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

The British Pound remains relatively firm as easing safe-haven demand weakens broad US Dollar momentum across FX markets.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Reduced Iran-related fears support risk-sensitive currencies

• US Economic Data: Stable Dollar sentiment limits stronger GBP upside

• FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed expectations continue capping gains

• Trade Policy: Improving market confidence supports Sterling demand

• Monetary Policy: BoE policy outlook remains relatively balanced

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Neutral to bullish

• Resistance: 1.3480

• Support: 1.3380

• Forecast: GBP/USD may continue stabilizing if risk sentiment improves further

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Mildly bullish GBP

• Catalysts: Geopolitical headlines and Fed outlook

USD/CAD Forecast

Current Price and Context

The Canadian Dollar is holding steady as investors monitor US-Iran ceasefire developments alongside upcoming Canadian GDP data.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Reduced tensions stabilize commodity-linked currencies

• US Economic Data: Hawkish Fed expectations continue supporting USD strength

• FOMC Outcome: Markets remain cautious ahead of further inflation signals

• Trade Policy: Oil price stability supports CAD resilience

• Monetary Policy: BoC outlook remains data dependent

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Neutral

• Resistance: 1.3860

• Support: 1.3760

• Forecast: Sideways trading likely ahead of key Canadian data releases

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Neutral CAD

• Catalysts: Canada GDP data and oil price movement

USD/JPY Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/JPY continues pushing higher toward the 160.70 region as persistent Fed-BoJ policy divergence supports broad Dollar strength against the Yen.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Reduced safe-haven demand weakens JPY support

• US Economic Data: Higher US yields continue supporting USD/JPY upside

• FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed expectations reinforce policy divergence

• Trade Policy: Improving market sentiment reduces defensive Yen demand

• Monetary Policy: BoJ remains accommodative relative to the Fed

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bullish USD/JPY

• Resistance: 160.70

• Support: 159.20

• Forecast: Pair may continue climbing while yield differentials remain elevated

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bullish USD/JPY

• Catalysts: US yields and BoJ rhetoric

Wrap-Up

Global financial markets are gradually stabilizing as improving US-Iran ceasefire optimism softens defensive positioning and reduces safe-haven demand, although persistent Federal Reserve hawkishness and elevated US inflation continue limiting broader recovery momentum across precious metals and FX markets, leaving investors closely focused on upcoming economic data and geopolitical developments for clearer directional signals moving forward.

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Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets (Pty) Ltd, an authorised Financial Service Provider (“FSP”) registered and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (“FSCA”) of South Africa under license number 47490 and located at 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa. Company Registration Number: 2016 / 063801 / 07. Contact Phone Number: +27 (10) 1429139. Operational Office: 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa.

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Moneta Markets Trading Limited is regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of Mauritius, with Company No. 211285 GBC and License No. GB24203391. Its registered office is located at Suite 201, 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, Mauritius.

Mmonexia Ltd registered in the Republic of Cyprus with registration number HE436544 and registered address at Archbishop Makarios III, 160, Floor 1, 3026, Limassol, Cyprus.
Legal Information:
Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets (Pty) Ltd, an authorised Financial Service Provider (“FSP”) registered and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (“FSCA”) of South Africa under license number 47490 and located at 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa. Company Registration Number: 2016 / 063801 / 07. Contact Phone Number: +27 (10) 1429139. Operational Office: 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa.

Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets Ltd, registered under Saint Lucia Registry of International Business Companies with registration number 2023-00068.

Moneta Markets Trading Limited is regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of Mauritius, with Company No. 211285 GBC and License No. GB24203391. Its registered office is located at Suite 201, 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, Mauritius.

Mmonexia Ltd registered in the Republic of Cyprus with registration number HE436544 and registered address at Archbishop Makarios III, 160, Floor 1, 3026, Limassol, Cyprus.