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Asian markets opened Thursday with a broadly constructive tone as fresh signals from China helped stabilize risk sentiment across currencies. The PBoC’s slightly stronger-than-expected yuan fixing, along with mixed but steady Chinese data, provided enough support to lift high-beta currencies such as the AUD and NZD. Meanwhile, the USD eased modestly, allowing major pairs to find short-term footing ahead of a light US data session. With Asian FX responding directly to shifts in China’s policy stance, today’s market narrative leans firmly toward improving risk appetite across the region.
USD/CNY trades slightly lower after the PBoC set the daily reference rate at 7.0825, stronger than the previous 7.0865. The firmer fixing reflects the central bank’s continued effort to stabilize the yuan amid uneven recovery momentum.
Geopolitical Risks: China’s trade tensions remain contained, allowing markets to focus on domestic stabilization.
US Economic Data: Softer USD ahead of upcoming US releases offers short-term relief for the yuan.
FOMC Outcome: Fed easing expectations limit USD upside against Asia FX.
Trade Policy: Beijing’s targeted measures aim to attract capital inflows and support export competitiveness.
Monetary Policy: PBoC’s managed approach maintains yuan stability without aggressive intervention.
Trend: Slight downward bias as yuan strengthens modestly.
Resistance: 7.0900
Support: 7.0700
Forecast: Further downside is possible if PBoC continues with firmer fixings.
Market Sentiment: Stability-focused, mildly bearish USD/CNY.
Catalysts: Future PBoC fixings, China economic data, USD momentum.
NZD/USD holds above 0.5650 as mixed but steady Chinese data supports risk appetite. Improved sentiment around China’s growth outlook is lifting antipodean currencies.
Geopolitical Risks: Stabilizing China–US relations reduce risk aversion for exporters like New Zealand.
US Economic Data: A softer USD restricts downside, allowing the pair to stay bid.
Trade Policy: China’s policy signals help revive demand expectations, benefiting NZ trade flows.
Trend: Mild bullish momentum above 0.5650.
Forecast: Upside continuation favored if risk sentiment holds.
Market Sentiment: Risk-on, supportive for NZD.
Catalysts: China data, US Dollar direction, broader commodity sentiment.
AUD/USD remains firm after China’s latest economic indicators showed steady performance, boosting regional confidence. The Aussie benefits directly from improved expectations for Chinese demand.
Geopolitical Risks: Easing trade tensions continue to help AUD stabilize.
US Economic Data: DXY softness keeps AUD elevated.
FOMC Outcome: Dovish Fed outlook enhances AUD’s appeal.
Trend: Gradual upside bias.
Resistance: 0.6620
Support: 0.6530
Market Sentiment: Constructive for AUD.
Catalysts: China economic releases, commodity flows, US data.
USD/JPY remains near multi-month highs as weak yen dynamics persist. Comments from Japan’s Kiuchi highlighted concerns that a soft yen could lift CPI via import costs, signaling limited policy tightening ahead.
Geopolitical Risks: Stable risk backdrop keeps safe-haven demand muted.
US Economic Data: USD strength capped but still supportive relative to JPY.
FOMC Outcome: Fed easing limits aggressive USD/JPY upside, but yield differentials remain wide.
Trend: Strong bullish continuation.
Resistance: 154.80
Support: 153.50
Forecast: Pair may retest highs if BoJ remains passive.
Market Sentiment: Bearish JPY.
Catalysts: BoJ statements, inflation indicators, US yields.
EUR/USD trades just below the mid-1.1600s as the pair struggles to break above its 50-day SMA. A weaker USD underpins the euro, but momentum remains limited.
Geopolitical Risks: Stable European landscape keeps EUR steady.
US Economic Data: A softer USD favors the euro’s consolidation.
FOMC Outcome: Fed dovishness supports moderate EUR upside.
Trade Policy: No major EU–US developments, keeping price action technical.
Trend: Neutral-to-bullish consolidation.
Resistance:1.1650
Support: 1.1580
Forecast: Break above the 50-day SMA may trigger fresh bullish momentum.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously positive for EUR.
Catalysts: ECB commentary, US inflation, technical breakout levels.
Markets remain cautiously optimistic as China’s policy signals continue to shape early-session flows, lending support to risk currencies while keeping the USD on the defensive. If Chinese data stabilizes further, the AUD and NZD could extend their upward bias, while the EUR and JPY will stay sensitive to broader shifts in sentiment and yield expectations. For now, traders are positioning around a more supportive Asian backdrop, awaiting fresh catalysts that could confirm whether today’s risk-friendly tone carries into the global session.
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Global markets opened Wednesday with a renewed appetite for metals, as expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut continued to drive investor sentiment. Gold extended its rally toward the $4,200 mark, while Silver hovered near a four-week high, both supported by easing U.S. yields and a softer dollar. The prospect of lower borrowing costs boosted the appeal of non-yielding assets, even as risk sentiment stayed cautiously positive across equity markets.
Elsewhere, Australia’s labor market data showed a slight decline in unemployment, reinforcing the RBA’s balanced stance, while China’s PBOC maintained a steady yuan fixing, signaling stability amid broader market optimism. In the UK, upcoming GDP figures are expected to show modest growth, keeping BoE policy bets tilted toward a dovish bias.
Gold traded near $4,180, extending its climb to a three-week high as markets priced in stronger odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in coming months. Softer U.S. Treasury yields and a subdued Dollar Index provided the perfect setup for bulls to sustain momentum, though profit-taking looms at higher levels.
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing tensions in the Middle East continue to underpin bullion’s safe-demand appeal.
US Economic Data: Weaker labor data and moderating inflation have reinforced dovish Fed expectations.
FOMC Outcome: Markets increasingly anticipate a rate cut by early 2026, which supports non-yielding metals.
Trade Policy: Steady China-U.S. relations and solid physical demand from Asia have lent support.
Monetary Policy: Global central banks’ dovish pivot keeps real yields under pressure, aiding gold’s bid.
Trend: Strong bullish momentum above key moving averages.
Resistance: $4,200 and $4,230.
Support: $4,130 and $4,080.
Forecast: Gold may consolidate above $4,150, with potential to retest $4,200 if yields stay soft.
Market Sentiment: Strongly bullish but cautious ahead of upcoming U.S. inflation data.
Catalysts: Fed commentary, U.S. CPI revisions, and central bank gold purchases.
Silver consolidated near $52.80, hovering close to a four-week peak. The metal benefited from a broad rise in industrial and precious metal demand as investors balanced risk exposure with rate-cut optimism.
Geopolitical Risks: Calm in major industrial regions has shifted focus back to demand fundamentals.
US Economic Data: A softer U.S. Dollar and cooling labor momentum support the rebound in metals.
Trade Policy: China’s resilient manufacturing data hints at improved industrial consumption.
Trend: Uptrend remains intact above short-term moving averages.
Forecast: Silver may stay supported above $52.00, with potential to retest the $53.50 region.
Market Sentiment: Bullish, driven by dovish Fed tone and steady physical demand.
Catalysts: Industrial production figures and Fed meeting minutes.
The Aussie traded near $0.6570, slightly weaker after mixed domestic employment data. While the RBA held rates steady, investors remain cautious amid China’s slowing trade performance and fluctuating risk appetite.
Geopolitical Risks: Regional growth uncertainty limits strong Aussie upside.
US Economic Data: A softer U.S. labor market offsets some of the greenback’s strength.
FOMC Outcome: Rate cut expectations have narrowed yield differentials, mildly supporting the Aussie.
Trend: Neutral to slightly bearish.
Resistance: 0.6610 and 0.6650.
Support: 0.6520 and 0.6480.
Market Sentiment: Neutral, awaiting fresh direction from Chinese trade figures.
Catalysts: Australian jobs report and U.S. inflation outlook.
The PBOC set the yuan midpoint at 7.0865, signaling a measured approach to currency management. The fixing was slightly weaker, reflecting modest capital outflow pressures amid a stronger U.S. Dollar.
Geopolitical Risks: Global trade stability supports China’s cautious FX policy.
US Economic Data: Resilient U.S. numbers limit CNY strength.
FOMC Outcome: Anticipated Fed rate cuts narrow yield spreads, providing slight relief for the yuan.
Trend: Mildly bearish for CNY (USD/CNY steady).
Resistance: 7.0950 and 7.1000.
Support: 7.0800 and 7.0650.
Forecast: The pair may trade range-bound near 7.08–7.10 as China prioritizes stability.
Market Sentiment: Neutral with a slight bullish bias for USD.
Catalysts: PBOC liquidity moves and U.S. Treasury yields.
The Pound held near 1.2760, showing limited volatility ahead of the UK’s Q3 GDP report. Investors expect a modest recovery, though slowing consumer demand and BoE dovish expectations cap major gains.
Geopolitical Risks: Political uncertainty and trade tensions within Europe dampen sentiment.
US Economic Data: Softer dollar provides temporary support for the pair.
FOMC Outcome: A dovish Fed may lend near-term relief to GBP/USD.
Trade Policy: Brexit-related trade normalization continues but growth momentum lags.
Trend: Sideways with mild bullish bias.
Resistance:1.2820 and 1.2870.
Support: 1.2700 and 1.2650.
Forecast: GBP/USD may test 1.2800 if GDP data meets expectations.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bullish ahead of UK GDP data.
Catalysts: UK growth figures, BoE commentary, and U.S. inflation updates.
Precious metals outperformed as Fed rate cut expectations deepened, while the U.S. Dollar softened against major counterparts. Commodity-linked currencies like the Aussie and Kiwi traded mixed amid diverging local data, while oil steadied on stable demand signals. With U.S. inflation trends and Fed commentary still steering sentiment, traders will watch closely whether momentum in gold and silver can extend further into week’s end.
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Global markets opened cautiously higher on Wednesday as optimism surrounding the potential end of the prolonged U.S. government shutdown lifted risk appetite. Oil prices steadied above $60 per barrel, supported by improving demand sentiment and relief that political gridlock in Washington may soon ease. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar edged up slightly, while safe-haven assets like Gold and the Yen softened amid renewed hopes of government reopening.
Asian currencies traded mixed, with the Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen under mild pressure, while the U.S. Dollar Index stabilized near 99.50. Market participants now turn their focus to upcoming U.S. inflation data and comments from Federal Reserve officials for fresh policy direction.
Gold trades near $4,010, easing from a three-week high as risk appetite improves following signs that the U.S. government shutdown could soon end. However, underlying concerns about slowing global growth and dovish Fed expectations continue to offer a floor for the yellow metal.
Geopolitical Risks: Political relief from the U.S. shutdown reduces safe-haven flows.
US Economic Data: Traders await CPI data for clues on inflation trajectory.
FOMC Outcome: Fed expected to maintain a cautious stance as growth moderates.
Trade Policy: Easing political uncertainty may support modest risk recovery.
Monetary Policy: Market still prices in potential Fed rate cuts for early 2026.
Trend: Consolidation above $4,000 with mild downside bias.
Resistance: $4,045
Support: $3,985
Forecast: Gold may stay range-bound as improving sentiment tempers safe-haven demand.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously neutral as risk mood improves.
Catalysts: Upcoming U.S. CPI and Fed commentary to dictate next move.
WTI holds modest gains above $60.50, buoyed by optimism over the potential resolution of the U.S. shutdown and improved global risk sentiment. However, higher U.S. inventories continue to limit further upside momentum.
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing Middle East tensions still support risk premium.
US Economic Data: Reopening hopes may lift fuel demand outlook.
Trade Policy: China’s steady demand outlook underpins price stability.
Trend: Mild bullish bias above $60.00.
Forecast: Oil may extend gains if shutdown officially ends this week.
Market Sentiment: Improving amid risk-on tone.
Catalysts: U.S. inventory data and shutdown resolution headlines.
The U.S. Dollar Index trades near 99.50, posting mild gains as investors price in a smoother economic path if the government reopens soon. However, dovish Fed expectations and subdued Treasury yields cap upside potential.
Geopolitical Risks: Relief over political gridlock offers mild support.
US Economic Data: CPI and retail sales data will guide short-term direction.
FOMC Outcome: Market expects steady policy with bias toward easing in 2026.
Trend: Neutral to mildly bullish above 99.30.
Resistance: 99.80
Support: 99.10
Market Sentiment: Balanced risk tone supports mild USD demand.
Catalysts: U.S. CPI release and shutdown resolution timeline.
AUD/USD extends losses near 0.6530, pressured by a firmer U.S. Dollar and cautious tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia. A recovery in global sentiment has failed to lift the Aussie meaningfully amid lower Chinese demand expectations.
Geopolitical Risks: Reopening of the U.S. government boosts global confidence but not enough to support AUD.
US Economic Data: Positive U.S. data favors USD strength.
FOMC Outcome: Fed caution limits AUD/USD rebound potential.
Trend: Bearish below 0.6550.
Resistance: 0.6570
Support: 0.6500
Forecast: AUD/USD likely to remain under pressure until China data improves.
Market Sentiment: Mildly bearish.
Catalysts: Chinese economic indicators and RBA commentary.
USD/JPY trades near 153.90, as the Yen remains soft amid risk-on market tone and lingering doubts about the Bank of Japan’s tightening timeline. Investors continue to favor the dollar as yields stabilize.
Geopolitical Risks: Easing U.S. tensions reduce safe-haven yen demand.
US Economic Data: Focus on CPI and consumer sentiment readings.
FOMC Outcome: Dovish bias keeps USD/JPY supported above 153.50.
Trade Policy: Stable trade outlook limits volatility.
Trend: Uptrend intact above 153.50.
Resistance:154.20
Support: 153.40
Forecast: USD/JPY may retest highs if risk appetite persists.
Market Sentiment: Risk-on, favoring USD strength.
Catalysts: BoJ policy tone and U.S. data prints.
Oil markets found some stability as expectations of a U.S. government reopening helped calm investor nerves and bolstered energy sentiment. The U.S. Dollar regained modest strength, while risk assets showed a more balanced tone ahead of key U.S. data releases. Overall, the easing political tension may provide short-term relief for markets, but traders remain cautious as the Fed’s next policy signals and inflation figures come into sharper focus.
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Disney is poised to report its Q3 2025 results, with investor focus on how its theme‑parks and experiences segments are powering growth even as its streaming business shifts into profitability and matures. While total revenue is growing modestly, the underlying strength in parks and the margin turn in direct‑to‑consumer remain key themes.
• Revenues rose ~2% year‑on‑year to US$23.7 billion.
• Adjusted EPS increased ~16% to US$1.61.
• Streaming (Disney+ & Hulu) subscribers reached ~183 million, up ~2.6 million vs prior quarter.
Disney’s shares are trading around US$110‑US$120, reflecting the market’s recognition of its diversified business model — especially the strength of its Experiences segment (theme parks, resorts, cruise lines). With modest top‑line growth but improving margins and a clearer path for its streaming platform, the key question is whether the company can sustain the momentum into FY2026 while managing cost pressures and competitive risks.
1. Experiences & Parks Momentum – The Parks & Experiences business saw double‑digit growth in operating income, reflecting strong consumer spending and global expansion.
2. Streaming Profitability Transition – With the direct‑to‑consumer segment now posting operating income, observers will watch metrics like ARPU, churn, and the integration of Hulu and Disney+.
3. Content & Sports Rights Costs – As Disney invests in live sports (ESPN), major content releases, and international expansion, margin pressure remains a risk.
4. Guidance & Subscriber Growth – Forward guidance on Disney+ and Hulu subscriber growth, and the company’s plan for streaming, cruise expansion, and global theme‑parks will be important catalysts.
5. Global Macros & Consumer Health – The business remains exposed to discretionary consumer spending (parks, resorts, vacation travel) and global economic conditions.
Trend: Moderately bullish — supported by the turnaround in streaming and park strength
Resistance: ~$135
Support: ~$100
Forecast: If Disney delivers strong Experiences income, streaming metrics improvement and reaffirmed guidance, shares could move toward ~$135. A weaker outlook or cost surprises could see retest of the ~$100 level.
Sentiment toward Disney is constructively positive. Analysts are optimistic about its diversified model and margin improvement in streaming, but caution that competition and cost escalation in sports and content rights could weigh.
Disney’s Q3 results will reflect not just another earnings quarter, but whether the company is successfully balancing its iconic businesses (parks, resorts, media) with its growth engines (streaming, global expansion). For investors the key takeaway will be: Is Disney’s turnaround turning into durable strength — and is the valuation justified?
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Cisco Systems is approaching its Q3 2025 earnings release, riding a wave of strong demand for its networking and AI‑infrastructure solutions. With product orders up and major web‑scale customers signing on, the company enters the quarter with positive momentum — yet cost pressures and macro risks (like tariffs) remain in the background.
• Q3 revenue of US$14.1 billion, up ~11% year‑on‑year.
• GAAP EPS: ~US$0.62 per share; Non‑GAAP EPS: ~US$0.96 per share.
• Product orders grew ~20% YoY (9% growth excluding the Splunk Inc. acquisition).
Cisco shares are currently trading in the US$60–65 range, reflecting moderate upside potential given their solid beat history. The market expects ~10–11% revenue growth and EPS near US$0.92 before results. The key will be whether Cisco can leverage its AI‑infrastructure momentum into sustained higher margins, while navigating tariff and supply‑chain headwinds.
1.AI & Infrastructure Demand — Cisco’s AI‑infrastructure orders have already exceeded US$600 million for the year, signaling strong enterprise interest.
2. Security & Software Growth — The company’s acquisition of Splunk boosts its security and observability segment, which is becoming a greater driver of growth.
3. Margin Pressure and Tariffs — While revenue is growing, margins face pressure from tariffs and global supply‑chain factors; investors will watch guidance closely.
4. Recurring Revenue Strength — With software and subscription revenue gaining share, the shift toward recurring business models is critical for long‑term valuation.
5. Capital Returns & Guidance — Cisco’s return of capital via dividends and buybacks remains strong, but forward guidance will influence investor sentiment amid broader tech pressure.
Trend: Cautiously positive with strong structural tailwinds in AI/infra
Resistance: ~US$70
Support: ~US$55–57
Forecast: A confirmed beat plus upgraded guidance could push the stock toward ~$70+, whereas weak guidance or margin concerns may test support nearer ~$55.
Sentiment is moderately bullish. Analysts highlight Cisco’s leadership in networking for the AI era, but some caution that competitive risks and macro headwinds (tariffs, supply) may temper upside.
Cisco’s Q3 earnings will be more than just another quarter — they’ll test whether the company is successfully capitalising on the AI infrastructure boom and shifting from traditional networking into faster‑growing segments. For investors, the focus isn’t just on growth, but on sustainable margin expansion and credible guidance into FY2026.
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Global markets opened the week on a steadier note as optimism grew around a potential resolution to the prolonged U.S. government shutdown. Investors welcomed signs of bipartisan progress, helping risk sentiment recover after days of political gridlock and uncertainty. The U.S. Dollar firmed modestly, while precious metals like Gold and Silver extended gains as traders continued to price in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations amid lingering economic headwinds.
Energy markets also stabilized, with oil prices holding near recent highs as demand forecasts improved. Commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand Dollars saw mild pressure, while USD/CAD rebounded on renewed greenback strength. Overall, the improving outlook for U.S. fiscal negotiations injected a cautiously positive tone across global markets.
Gold climbed to a two-week high, trading just above $4,000, as softer U.S. data and easing Treasury yields boosted expectations for a Fed rate cut early next year. The metal’s gains were tempered slightly by optimism over a potential U.S. government shutdown deal, which limited demand for defensive assets.
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing geopolitical frictions continue to provide mild underlying support for gold.
US Economic Data: Weak factory and services figures reinforced expectations for slower growth, aiding gold prices.
FOMC Outcome: Markets remain confident the Fed will pivot toward easing in the coming months.
Trade Policy: Optimism over U.S. fiscal resolution has reduced safe-asset demand temporarily.
Monetary Policy: Dovish Fed expectations keep gold’s longer-term bias upward.
Trend: Bullish momentum persists above the $4,000 mark.
Resistance: $4,050 and $4,080 are key upside barriers.
Support: Initial support lies at $3,970, followed by $3,940.
Forecast: Gold may consolidate above $4,000, targeting a break toward $4,060 if dovish sentiment deepens.
Market Sentiment: Traders remain cautiously optimistic, favoring gold as a medium-term hedge.
Catalysts: Progress in U.S. fiscal talks and upcoming inflation data will dictate the next move.
Silver extended its climb, trading near $51.00, benefiting from continued demand for alternative assets and easing bond yields. The rally remains underpinned by Fed cut expectations, though optimism over the U.S. shutdown resolution has slightly capped upside momentum.
Geopolitical Risks: Broader global uncertainty supports silver’s industrial-hedge appeal.
US Economic Data: Softer U.S. economic figures reinforced silver’s upward bias.
Trade Policy: Improved fiscal outlook tempers defensive buying.
Trend: Gradually bullish above the $49.50 zone.
Forecast: Silver may test $51.50 as long as the Fed maintains a dovish tone.
Market Sentiment: Positive, with moderate profit-taking expected near current highs.
Catalysts: Fed commentary and U.S. CPI data later this week may drive renewed volatility.
The Australian Dollar remains subdued near 0.6550, pressured by a stronger greenback as optimism over the end of the U.S. shutdown lifted sentiment toward the USD. Weaker Chinese trade data further dampened AUD’s performance amid ongoing concerns over regional demand.
Geopolitical Risks: Stabilizing U.S.-China relations offer limited tailwinds.
US Economic Data: Stronger U.S. labor and sentiment data favor the dollar.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s cautious stance limits AUD upside.
Trend: Slightly bearish below 0.6600.
Resistance: 0.6580 and 0.6620.
Support: 0.6520 and 0.6480.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish amid soft regional fundamentals.
Catalysts: China’s upcoming CPI and U.S. macro indicators could trigger volatility.
NZD/USD softened below 0.5650, extending mild losses as optimism over a U.S. government deal lifted the greenback. Weak domestic demand and subdued Chinese data added to the Kiwi’s underperformance.
Geopolitical Risks: Reduced global risk aversion dampens NZD appeal.
US Economic Data: Stronger U.S. indicators boost USD buying interest.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s caution keeps USD supported against high-beta currencies.
Trend: Downward bias below 0.5700.
Resistance: 0.5680 and 0.5720.
Support: 0.5620 and 0.5580.
Forecast: NZD/USD likely to consolidate lower, with risks skewed to further downside.
Market Sentiment: Bearish as traders favor USD strength over commodity FX.
Catalysts: U.S. CPI data and New Zealand’s upcoming retail figures.
USD/CAD rebounded toward 1.4050, driven by renewed U.S. Dollar demand as shutdown optimism lifted yields. Oil prices steadied near $60.00, limiting CAD’s downside but keeping the pair biased upward overall.
Geopolitical Risks: Global fiscal optimism supports risk appetite but strengthens USD.
US Economic Data: Solid U.S. payroll and services readings bolster the greenback.
FOMC Outcome: Markets discount further near-term cuts, supporting USD strength.
Trade Policy: Energy trade sentiment remains mixed after OPEC’s recent announcements.
Trend: Bullish bias above 1.4000.
Resistance: 1.4080 and 1.4120.
Support: 1.4000 and 1.3950.
Forecast: USD/CAD may retest 1.4100 if U.S. yields continue to edge higher.
Market Sentiment: Neutral-to-bullish, with the USD in control short-term.
Catalysts: U.S. U.S. shutdown progress and Canada’s employment data later in the week.
Market participants will continue to monitor progress in U.S. shutdown talks, with attention also shifting to upcoming U.S. inflation and employment data for further policy cues. A formal resolution could lift overall risk sentiment and pressure safe-haven assets, while any renewed delay might reignite volatility. For now, traders appear content to stay balanced—positioning ahead of key U.S. data releases that could define the Fed’s rate outlook into year-end.
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The U.S. Dollar regained footing on Friday after a volatile week, buoyed by firm U.S. yields and renewed caution following weak Chinese trade data. Market participants digested a narrowing in China’s October trade surplus — a sign of slowing global demand — which pressured risk-linked currencies like the AUD and NZD. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen retreated after a brief rally, and USD/CAD hovered near six-month highs despite persistent speculation about eventual Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Investors now await the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for further direction, as traders assess the balance between resilient U.S. fundamentals and fading global growth momentum.
USD/CAD remains firm above 1.4100, hovering near a six-month high as traders balance soft crude oil prices against moderating expectations of imminent Fed rate cuts. The pair’s resilience reflects underlying USD strength amid subdued risk appetite and weak Canadian data momentum.
Geopolitical Risks: Stable energy supply and limited geopolitical escalation have capped CAD’s upside.
US Economic Data: Solid U.S. job figures continue to support the greenback, reinforcing rate cut hesitation.
FOMC Outcome: Markets have dialed back aggressive Fed easing bets, keeping USD demand intact.
Trade Policy: No major trade disruptions, but slowing global trade indirectly pressures CAD via oil.
Monetary Policy: The Bank of Canada’s cautious tone contrasts with the Fed’s “higher-for-longer” stance.
Trend: Uptrend momentum remains firm above 1.4100.
Resistance: 1.4165 and 1.4230.
Support: 1.4050 and 1.3980.
Forecast: USD/CAD may test 1.4200 if oil prices weaken further and U.S. yields stay elevated.
Market Sentiment: Mildly bullish toward USD amid risk aversion.
Catalysts: Canada’s jobs report and U.S. sentiment data may drive near-term volatility.
NZD/USD trades below 0.5650 as China’s October trade surplus narrowed, raising concerns about New Zealand’s export outlook. The Kiwi weakened alongside other risk-sensitive currencies as demand for U.S. Dollars returned.
Geopolitical Risks: Global uncertainty keeps safe-haven flows tilted toward the USD.
US Economic Data: Robust U.S. payroll growth amplifies policy divergence.
Trade Policy: China’s weaker trade figures highlight fragility in NZ’s key export market.
Trend: Bearish bias below 0.5650.
Forecast: NZD/USD likely to remain pressured unless Chinese trade sentiment stabilizes.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish on the Kiwi.
Catalysts: Chinese inflation and trade data revisions may influence near-term moves.
AUD/USD slipped as China’s trade surplus narrowed in October, signaling weaker demand for Australian commodities. The pair traded near 0.6400, with investors staying cautious amid declining risk appetite.
Geopolitical Risks: Global growth slowdown dampens commodity-linked sentiment.
US Economic Data: Solid U.S. employment data reinforces USD strength.
FOMC Outcome: A patient Fed stance sustains USD resilience.
Trend: Sideways-to-bearish near 0.6400.
Resistance: 0.6450 and 0.6510.
Support: 0.6360 and 0.6310.
Market Sentiment: Bearish-to-neutral, pressured by China data.
Catalysts: Chinese industrial output and U.S. CPI next week could trigger fresh direction.
USD/JPY eased slightly after touching a one-week high, trading near 151.50 as Japan’s weak domestic data limited Yen strength. Traders continue to weigh Bank of Japan’s policy hesitation against resilient U.S. Treasury yields.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited safe-haven demand despite global slowdown fears.
US Economic Data: Solid U.S. data sustains Treasury yield support.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s steady approach underpins USD demand.
Trend: Bullish bias above 151.00.
Resistance: 151.85 and 152.30.
Support: 150.90 and 150.30.
Forecast: USD/JPY may retest 152.00 if BoJ maintains dovish tone.
Market Sentiment: Bullish on USD as yield spread favors Dollar.
Catalysts: Next BoJ policy guidance and U.S. sentiment data.
The U.S. Dollar Index rebounded near the 100 level after Thursday’s sharp drop, supported by resilient data and cautious global sentiment. The recovery signals that markets are rebalancing after overextended short-dollar positioning.
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing global growth concerns bolster the USD’s safe-haven role.
US Economic Data: Strong labor data underpins economic resilience.
FOMC Outcome: Steady Fed stance sustains dollar demand.
Trade Policy: Global trade slowdown indirectly supports USD via risk aversion.
Trend: Rebound from oversold territory.
Resistance: 100.45 and 100.90.
Support: 99.80 and 99.40.
Forecast: DXY likely to consolidate near 100.50 before next week’s U.S. CPI release.
Market Sentiment: Slightly bullish as risk sentiment remains fragile.
Catalysts: U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment and next week’s CPI figures.
Currency markets ended the week on a cautious note, with the U.S. Dollar Index stabilizing near the 100 mark after recent losses. Weaker Chinese trade figures weighed on commodity-linked currencies, while safe-haven demand softened amid calmer risk sentiment. Looking ahead, next week’s U.S. CPI print and key central bank commentary will be crucial in shaping expectations for December policy decisions, potentially setting the tone for FX performance into mid-November.
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Global markets traded cautiously on Thursday as investors weighed the economic implications of the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now the longest in history. The U.S. Dollar Index struggled to maintain support near the 100.00 mark, while gold and silver prices eased amid a modest rebound in U.S. private payrolls. Meanwhile, traders continued to monitor developments in Asia, with China’s latest yuan fixing and speculation surrounding a possible Bank of Japan policy shift adding to cross-asset volatility.
Gold edged lower below $4,000 after a modest rebound in U.S. private payrolls trimmed some of the immediate safe-haven demand. The metal remains supported by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and persistent inflation uncertainty, but upside is capped while the Dollar finds intermittent bids.
Geopolitical Risks: The prolonged U.S. shutdown keeps headline risk elevated, sustaining occasional defensive buying in gold.
US Economic Data: A rebound in private payrolls reduced some near-term safe-haven flows, weighing on bullion.
FOMC Outcome: Any Fed comments that push back on rate cuts would raise real yields and pressure gold.
Trade Policy: Easing US–China trade tensions lower extreme hedging flows, limiting gold’s outsized rallies.
Monetary Policy: A still-accommodative global central-bank backdrop supports medium-term demand for precious metals.
Trend: Neutral-to-slightly bullish on the medium term while above $3,950.
Resistance: $4,030 then $4,080.
Support: $3,960 then $3,920.
Forecast: Expect consolidation in the $3,950–$4,030 range; a decisive break above $4,030 would reopen upside toward $4,080.
Market Sentiment: Cautious — traders are hedging with small positions, buying dips into headline risk.
Catalysts: Any US shutdown developments, US CPI/PCE prints, and Fed speakers.
Silver is trading near $49.00 but shows vulnerability below the pivotal $49.35–$49.40 zone as profit-taking follows the recent run. The metal remains sensitive to both defensive flows and industrial demand cues, so its next directional move will depend on risk sentiment and US data.
Geopolitical Risks: Elevated headline risk from the US shutdown provides intermittent support to silver.
US Economic Data: Strong payrolls weaken the safe-haven bid and can pressure silver; weak data would do the opposite.
Trade Policy: Improved US-China trade tone helps industrial demand, a positive for silver’s fundamentals.
Trend: Short-term corrective while below the $49.35–$49.40 resistance band.
Forecast: Expect rangebound action between $47.80–$49.40; a breach above $49.40 would target $50+.
Market Sentiment: Mixed — traders trim positions ahead of major US prints.
Catalysts: US CPI/PPI, US–China headlines, and Treasury yield moves.
The US Dollar Index is holding losses near 100.00 as the U.S. government shutdown becomes the longest on record, producing intermittent dollar weakness amid fiscal uncertainty. While headline risk often supports safe-haven FX flows, the shutdown’s growth implications are creating two-way pressure on the Dollar.
Geopolitical Risks: The ongoing U.S. shutdown elevates fiscal uncertainty and periodically boosts safe-haven demand for USD.
US Economic Data: Mixed domestic data (payrolls rebound vs other soft prints) is causing rangebound Dollar dynamics.
FOMC Outcome: Any pushback from the Fed on rate-cut timing would support the Dollar; dovish tilt would weigh.
Trend: Neutral-to-rangebound around the 99.50–100.50 area.
Resistance: 100.40 then 101.00.
Support: 99.30 then 98.80.
Market Sentiment: Cautious and data-dependent as markets price fiscal and policy uncertainty.
Catalysts: US shutdown headlines, upcoming CPI/PCE releases, and Fed commentary.
USD/CNY is trading around 7.0865–7.09 after the PBOC set a slightly firmer reference (7.0865 vs prior 7.0901), signaling intent to steady the yuan amid global uncertainty. Markets view the PBoC fix and China’s policy signals as efforts to maintain FX stability while growth/ trade measures are adjusted.
Geopolitical Risks: Reduced US-China tensions from tariff easing help ease depreciation pressure on the yuan.
US Economic Data: A firmer US Dollar on stronger data would push USDCNY higher.
FOMC Outcome: A hawkish Fed raises USD funding demand and may pressure onshore rates.
Trend: Sideways with a mild firmer-yuan bias driven by policy guidance.
Resistance: 7.1000 then 7.1150.
Support: 7.0700 then 7.0500.
Forecast: Expect a managed range near current levels; stronger risk appetite and tariff easing could nudge USDCNY lower.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously constructive toward the yuan as policy aims for stability.
Catalysts: PBoC fixes, Nov. 10 tariff changes implementation, and US macro surprises.
USD/JPY is trading with modest upside pressure as the Japanese Yen posts small gains but remains vulnerable amid ongoing BoJ uncertainty; the pair sits near multi-month peaks for USD/JPY. Investors are balancing the prospect of BoJ policy shifts against a resilient Dollar and risk dynamics tied to the US shutdown.
Geopolitical Risks: Regional stability and global risk moves intermittently support the Yen as a defensive asset.
US Economic Data: Strong US prints lift the Dollar and can push USD/JPY higher.
FOMC Outcome: A hawkish Fed would tend to keep USD/JPY elevated via higher US yields.
Trade Policy: Strategic supply deals and trade developments influence JPY flows indirectly through risk channels.
Trend: Rangebound with a mild USD bias while BoJ outcomes remain unclear.
Resistance:154.50 then 155.20.
Support: 153.20 then 152.50.
Forecast: Expect consolidation with occasional spikes; a clear BoJ tightening signal would likely push USD/JPY lower (yen stronger), while continued USD strength keeps upside risk intact.
Market Sentiment: Mixed — traders are hedging around potential BoJ commentary and US data.
Catalysts: BoJ minutes/speeches, Tokyo CPI updates, and US Treasury yield moves.
Markets remain on edge as political gridlock in Washington casts uncertainty over near-term U.S. fiscal stability. Traders will now turn their attention to upcoming U.S. inflation data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials for fresh clues on rate trajectory and market sentiment. With risk appetite fragile and safe-store demand fluctuating, volatility may persist across major currency and commodity pairs heading into the weekend.
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Global markets traded mixed on Tuesday as investors assessed the implications of a potential U.S. government shutdown and fresh signs of easing trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. The U.S. Dollar firmed modestly amid safe-haven demand, while the British Pound and New Zealand Dollar fell sharply on weak domestic fundamentals. Meanwhile, China’s pledge to lift tariffs on certain U.S. agricultural imports added a dose of optimism to trade-sensitive currencies and commodities.
Gold extended its gains above $4,000 as investors sought safety amid concerns that the ongoing U.S. government shutdown could become the longest in history. The yellow metal benefited from a weaker U.S. Dollar and renewed safe-haven demand as fiscal uncertainty weighed on risk sentiment.
Geopolitical Risks: Fears of prolonged U.S. political gridlock have revived risk aversion, boosting gold’s defensive appeal.
US Economic Data: Recent mixed labor data underscores fragile growth momentum, favoring gold as a hedge.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s cautious stance and rate cut expectations lend additional support to non-yielding assets.
Trade Policy: Market optimism over easing U.S.-China trade tensions has been overshadowed by domestic political risk.
Monetary Policy: A potential dovish policy turn from the Fed continues to underpin the metal’s outlook.
Trend: Bullish momentum persists after reclaiming the $4,000 handle.
Resistance: $4,030 and $4,065.
Support: $3,980 and $3,950.
Forecast: A sustained break above $4,030 could open the path toward $4,080 in the near term.
Market Sentiment: Traders are leaning bullish on safe-haven assets amid heightened political and fiscal uncertainty.
Catalysts: Any resolution—or escalation—of the U.S. shutdown saga will be key to near-term gold direction.
WTI crude fell further to hover near $60.00, pressured by a sharp rise in U.S. crude inventories and fading demand optimism. The recent OPEC+ pause in output hikes failed to offset the drag from weaker global consumption signals.
Geopolitical Risks: Middle East tensions remain contained, offering limited risk premium for oil.
US Economic Data: Rising stockpiles and slower industrial demand signal cooling energy consumption.
Trade Policy: Improved U.S.-China trade tone could bolster longer-term oil demand.
Trend: Bearish momentum persists after multiple failed recoveries above $62.00.
Forecast: If prices close below $59.70, a slide toward $58.00 could follow.
Market Sentiment: Bearish, as traders respond to mounting supply signals.
Catalysts: Upcoming EIA data and any fresh OPEC+ commentary will steer price action.
China’s Finance Ministry announced plans to lift some tariffs on U.S. agricultural imports from November 10, a move seen as a step toward stabilizing trade relations. The decision offers relief to global commodity markets and may boost confidence in future U.S.-China cooperation.
Geopolitical Risks: The easing of tariffs signals improving diplomatic ties between Washington and Beijing.
US Economic Data: Potential agricultural export boosts could support U.S. trade balance data in coming months.
FOMC Outcome: A more dovish Fed may complement China’s pro-growth policies in supporting global demand.
Trend: Positive sentiment for risk assets and commodities tied to U.S.-China trade.
Resistance: Key sentiment resistance at renewed risk appetite around equity markets.
Support: Support levels seen in commodities benefiting from agricultural rebound.
Market Sentiment: Optimistic, as investors welcome policy gestures from Beijing.
Catalysts: The official tariff adjustment on Nov. 10 and any reciprocal U.S. trade measures.
The British Pound plunged to fresh multi-week lows, trading near 1.3040, as selling pressure intensified amid renewed U.S. Dollar strength. The move reflects worsening U.K. growth sentiment and persistent market doubts over BoE’s rate outlook.
Geopolitical Risks: Political uncertainty around post-Brexit trade negotiations continues to cloud outlook.
US Economic Data: Stronger U.S. manufacturing and job data bolster the greenback’s dominance.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s cautious rhetoric supports the Dollar over risk currencies.
Trend: Strongly bearish below 1.3100.
Resistance: 1.3100 and 1.3170.
Support: 1.3000 and 1.2950.
Forecast: Continued pressure toward 1.2950 appears likely unless the U.S. Dollar weakens.
Market Sentiment: Bearish, with traders favoring the Dollar as a safe bet amid global uncertainty.
Catalysts: U.K. GDP updates and BoE statements later this week could shift direction.
The New Zealand Dollar slumped below 0.5650 after data showed unemployment rising to a nine-year high, signaling deepening labor market weakness. The release sparked fresh selling as traders anticipate a dovish RBNZ tone in upcoming meetings.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited, but regional slowdown concerns weigh on sentiment.
US Economic Data: Robust U.S. figures continue to favor the greenback over weaker peers.
FOMC Outcome: A steady Fed stance reinforces Dollar demand.
Trade Policy: Ongoing trade recovery in China offers little relief to domestic weakness.
Trend: Bearish after breaking key psychological support.
Resistance: 0.5700 and 0.5740.
Support: 0.5620 and 0.5580.
Forecast: A deeper pullback toward 0.5580 appears likely amid continued selling pressure.
Market Sentiment: Bearish, reflecting renewed fears of economic slowdown.
Catalysts: Upcoming RBNZ commentary and additional employment data will be closely watched.
Overall, traders remained cautious ahead of upcoming U.S. data and ongoing political wrangling in Washington. With fiscal uncertainty mounting and China’s policy signals turning more constructive, currency markets may continue to see heightened volatility as the week unfolds.
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AMD is set to report its Q3 2025 results on November 4, with investor attention locked on whether its booming AI-chip business, bolstered by new deals and data-centre momentum, can deliver strong numbers — and whether margins and valuation can keep pace. The coming quarter may show whether AMD is simply riding the AI wave or truly executing a longer-term transformation.
• Estimated Revenue: ~US$8.7 billion (+~28% YoY)
• Estimated Adjusted EPS: ~US$1.17 per share (+~27% YoY)
• Guidance & Margin: AMD expects ~54% non-GAAP gross margin for Q3.
AMD shares are trading near record highs (recent highs above ~$260) as the market rallies around its AI-chip momentum. Analysts continue to highlight that much of the upside is already priced in, making execution and margin progression key.
With revenue forecast at ~$8.7 billion and earnings per share at ~$1.17, the market will scrutinise whether AMD can deliver above these benchmarks and provide credible guidance for its next-stage growth, especially in the AI/data-centre segment.
1.Data-Centre & AI Chip Momentum – AMD’s ramp of its Instinct MI350 series accelerators and broad adoption across major customers (including cloud and enterprise) are central to this quarter’s narrative.
2.Client & Gaming Segment Rebound – Beyond AI, growth in client CPUs and gaming remains important for diversification and stabilising overall revenue expansion.
3.Margins & Capital Discipline – After recent heavy investment and export-control impacts, margin improvement will be closely watched. Management’s ability to convert scale into profitability will matter.
4.Valuation & Execution Risk – With share-price gains already strong, the stock’s valuation reflects high expectations — any misstep may trigger downside.
5. Long-Term AI Contract Wins – Large-scale partnerships (e.g., with AI platform firms) and future pipeline wins could validate AMD’s positioning and expand its AI addressable market.
Trend: Strong bullish sentiment, though with elevated risk given recent run-up
Resistance: ~$280-$300 region (near recent record highs)
Support: ~$230-$240 zone
Forecast: A solid beat and bullish forward guidance could propel shares toward $300+. Conversely, any margin or guidance disappointment could see a pull-back to ~$230-$240.
Sentiment toward AMD is constructively positive, driven by its exposure to AI infrastructure and server-chip tailwinds. However, analysts caution that much of the growth story is already priced in and emphasise the importance of execution.
AMD’s Q3 earnings release will serve as a critical checkpoint in its transition from chipmaker to AI-infrastructure powerhouse. While revenue growth appears poised for double digits, the market will reward clarity on margins, guidance, and pipeline strength. For investors, the question isn’t just how fast AMD is growing, but how well it can scale profitably and sustainably in the AI era.
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