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Financial markets opened cautiously as investors await the latest US ISM Services PMI report, a key gauge of economic health. The US Dollar softened below the 99.00 level, while commodity currencies like the NZD and GBP saw mixed performances. In Europe, the Euro inched lower ahead of HCOB PMI data, and oil prices edged down amid persistent oversupply fears and geopolitical tensions involving Russia.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped below the 99.00 mark in Monday’s early trading, reflecting investor caution ahead of the highly anticipated US ISM Services PMI data. The pullback continues last week’s weakness driven by softer-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls and hints of easing economic momentum in the services sector.
Geopolitical Risks: Calm geopolitical landscape offers limited haven demand for the USD.
US Economic Data: Focus shifts to today’s ISM Services PMI, expected to show moderate expansion.
FOMC Outcome: Market expectations remain tilted toward a dovish Fed if service sector data disappoints.
Trade Policy: No major trade developments currently affecting USD sentiment.
Monetary Policy: Fed officials maintain a wait-and-see approach amid mixed economic signals.
Trend: Bearish short-term bias below 99.00
Resistance: 99.20, 99.50
Support: 98.75, 98.40
Forecast: DXY may stay pressured unless ISM data beats forecasts, which could offer a short-term rebound.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish amid soft labor and services data
Catalysts: US ISM Services PMI data due later today is the key event that could reshape near-term USD direction. A weak reading would reinforce the bearish tone, while an upside surprise may limit losses.
NZD/USD continues to trade weak near the 0.5900 level, shrugging off stronger-than-expected Chinese Services PMI data. The pair remains under pressure as risk appetite stays muted and traders anticipate more direction from upcoming US data.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited global tensions keep NZD gains capped amid cautious trading.
US Economic Data: US ISM Services PMI in focus; a strong print could weigh further on NZD.
FOMC Outcome: Market pricing still favors a dovish Fed path, limiting USD upside.
Trade Policy: New Zealand remains exposed to China’s trade outlook; data helps but doesn’t lift sentiment broadly.
Monetary Policy: RBNZ remains cautious as global demand shows signs of slowing.
Trend: Bearish bias continues below 0.5920.
Forecast: NZD/USD may drift lower if risk sentiment fails to recover and DXY firms post-ISM data.
Market Sentiment: Bearish with weak demand for risk-linked currencies.
Catalysts: Upbeat Chinese PMI offered a brief lift but failed to shift overall sentiment. Traders now await US ISM Services PMI as the next market mover.
GBP/USD remains firm above 1.3250 as traders await the release of the US ISM Services PMI. The pair holds its ground amid a softer US Dollar and cautious sentiment ahead of key macro data from both sides of the Atlantic.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited global disruptions keep risk appetite in check.
US Economic Data: The US dollar remains supported ahead of this week’s NFP release and key ISM surveys.
FOMC Outcome: ISM Services PMI is the key focus; stronger data could boost the Dollar.
Trade Policy: Post-Brexit trade stability supports GBP in the short term.
Monetary Policy: The BoE remains vigilant on inflation, limiting downside for the Pound.
Trend: Sideways to mildly bullish above 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3285, 1.3320
Support: 1.3225, 1.3190
Forecast: GBP/USD could break higher if US data disappoints or BoE turns more hawkish.
Market Sentiment: Neutral to bullish as GBP resists broader risk-off flows.
Catalysts: The upcoming ISM Services PMI is expected to steer near-term direction, with traders positioning cautiously.
EUR/USD edged lower toward 1.1550 on Monday as markets turned cautious ahead of the release of HCOB Services PMI data from Germany and the broader Eurozone. The Euro struggled for traction amid tepid sentiment and mixed growth signals across the bloc.
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing war risk premiums and weak global growth concerns weigh on Euro.
US Economic Data: Investors are awaiting the US ISM Services PMI later today.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s data-driven stance keeps Dollar strength in check.
Trade Policy: No new disruptions, though global slowdown themes are resurfacing.
Monetary Policy: The ECB’s cautious tone limits upside for EUR amid weak regional data.
Trend: Bearish bias below 1.1600
Resistance: 1.1585, 1.1620
Support: 1.1520, 1.1480
Forecast: EUR/USD may slip further toward 1.1500 if Eurozone PMIs disappoint.
Market Sentiment: Mildly bearish as investors reduce Euro exposure.
Catalysts: German and Eurozone Services PMIs will shape the pair’s immediate direction.
WTI crude oil hovered around $65.50 on Monday, posting modest losses as traders weighed renewed oversupply concerns and lingering uncertainty over Russia’s production stance. Demand-side recovery remains fragile, keeping upside potential limited.
Geopolitical Risks: Instability in Russia clouds future output expectations.
US Economic Data: Eyes on ISM Services PMI for clues on demand outlook.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s pause may limit upside for crude despite demand worries.
Trade Policy: No direct disruptions, but global trade softness remains a drag.
Monetary Policy: Tighter policies globally could curb energy demand recovery.
Trend: Bearish under $66.00
Resistance: $66.20, $67.50
Support: $64.80, $63.90
Forecast: WTI likely to stay pressured unless fresh supply-side shocks emerge.
Market Sentiment: Cautious amid bearish oil positioning.
Catalysts: Russia’s output signals and US demand data could spark volatility.
Traders are treading carefully ahead of today’s critical PMI releases, with the US Dollar under pressure and major pairs reacting to broader risk sentiment and regional data. As economic indicators unfold, volatility could pick up across FX and commodity markets. Keep an eye on the ISM Services PMI and Eurozone figures for clearer direction in the sessions ahead.
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Financial markets opened the week cautiously, with silver prices stabilizing near $37.00 as traders seek clarity from upcoming global data and central bank commentary. The US Dollar presented a mixed tone across major pairs, while the Japanese Yen weakened following Friday’s rebound, and the British Pound edged lower amid Bank of England policy anticipation. Broader market sentiment remains watchful, especially with inflation data and China’s trade developments in focus.
Silver is trading sideways near $37.00, lacking strong momentum after last week’s rally. Despite its resilience, technical indicators suggest the metal may be running out of steam, with downside risks emerging as markets await fresh directional cues from macroeconomic data and the US Dollar’s path.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited impact today; market focus remains on macro data and central banks.
US Economic Data: Friday’s softer-than-expected NFP still lingers, but upcoming US inflation and PMI data may spark volatility.
FOMC Outcome: Traders remain cautious after the Fed signaled data-dependence, limiting upside for precious metals.
Trade Policy: China’s looming trade data and potential policy shifts could indirectly impact silver via global demand expectations.
Monetary Policy: The Fed’s wait-and-see stance and mixed US Dollar movement contribute to silver’s indecisiveness.
Trend: Consolidation after a strong July uptrend.
Resistance: $37.35 (July peak), $38.00
Support: $36.60, $36.00
Forecast: Bearish bias remains intact below $37.35. A break under $36.60 could trigger further downside toward $36.00.
Market Sentiment: Cautious and neutral; traders await more concrete drivers
Catalysts: The upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls report and ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to guide the next move in silver prices.
USD/CNY trades around 7.1380, showing modest yuan strength after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the daily midpoint reference rate at 7.1395, stronger than the previous 7.1496. This move signals the central bank’s intent to curb yuan depreciation and stabilize currency expectations as markets digest economic data and upcoming Fed cues.
Geopolitical Risks: No major escalations, but underlying tensions with the West continue to influence investor positioning.
US Economic Data: The market awaits the US NFP report later this week, which could reinforce or dampen dollar strength.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s recent signal of a data-dependent stance adds uncertainty to the dollar outlook.
Trade Policy: Ongoing trade uncertainties between the US and China keep investors cautious.
Monetary Policy: PBOC’s stronger-than-expected fixing suggests a continued preference for a stable yuan amid broad economic policy easing.
Trend: Slight bearish bias on USD/CNY amid recent fixings and intervention signals.
Forecast: USD/CNY may consolidate within the 7.1300–7.1500 range, with downward pressure if the PBOC continues firm guidance.
Market Sentiment: Traders are cautious, interpreting the stronger fix as a signal that the PBOC is uncomfortable with rapid yuan weakening.
Catalysts: Upcoming US jobs data and potential new PBOC policy measures are likely to shape near-term direction for the pair.
NZD/USD trades near 0.5900, weakening modestly as traders grow cautious ahead of China’s upcoming trade data release. The kiwi dollar remains under pressure due to its strong trade and economic ties with China, with risk sentiment weighed by concerns over slowing global demand.
Geopolitical Risks: Heightened uncertainty in the Asia-Pacific region continues to dampen risk appetite.
US Economic Data: The US dollar remains supported ahead of this week’s NFP release and key ISM surveys.
FOMC Outcome: Traders expect the Fed to stay data-dependent, which maintains underlying support for the greenback.
Trade Policy: China’s export and import figures may set the tone for Asia-Pacific currencies, especially the NZD.
Monetary Policy: The RBNZ remains in a prolonged hold cycle, reducing upward pressure on the kiwi.
Trend: Bearish short-term bias as lower highs persist.
Resistance: 0.5950
Support: 0.5880
Forecast: NZD/USD may drift lower toward 0.5880 if China’s trade figures disappoint, though a surprise upside could spark a short-covering bounce.
Market Sentiment: Traders are risk-averse, eyeing China’s economic health for clues on broader demand trends.
Catalysts: China’s trade report is the key near-term driver, with US dollar flows also influencing direction.
GBP/USD dips toward the mid-1.3200s, retreating modestly as traders brace for this week’s Bank of England policy decision. While the pair is under some downside pressure, expectations of a cautious but steady BoE limit further losses for now.
Geopolitical Risks: Global market uncertainty remains elevated, limiting GBP upside despite stable UK data.
US Economic Data: Dollar demand stays firm ahead of key labor market figures due later this week.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s hawkish tilt continues to offer support to the greenback against major peers.
Trade Policy: No major UK trade disruptions, but post-Brexit export sentiment remains weak.
Monetary Policy: The BoE is expected to hold rates but could hint at policy loosening later this year, weighing slightly on sterling.
Trend: Mildly bearish in the short term.
Resistance: 1.3320
Support: 1.3200
Forecast: A break below 1.3200 could open the door to further declines, but near-term price action may stay range-bound ahead of BoE clarity.
Market Sentiment: Traders are cautious, opting to wait for BoE signals before positioning heavily on GBP.
Catalysts: The upcoming BoE rate decision and forward guidance will set the tone for the pair’s next move.
The Japanese Yen continues to drift lower, with USD/JPY rebounding slightly after last Friday’s steep decline triggered by a weaker US Nonfarm Payrolls report. The greenback is regaining traction while the Yen remains soft amid persistent policy divergence.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited safe-haven demand reduces support for the Yen.
US Economic Data: Recent NFP miss triggered a dip in USD, but ongoing resilience in other indicators is restoring sentiment.
FOMC Outcome: Despite the soft jobs data, Fed policymakers remain cautious, maintaining a hawkish tone.
Trade Policy: No new developments, but global trade risks keep market participants vigilant.
Monetary Policy: The BoJ’s ultra-loose stance remains intact, contrasting with the Fed’s tighter approach, adding pressure to the Yen.
Trend: Bullish recovery after pullback.
Resistance: 157.80
Support: 155.50
Forecast: USD/JPY may continue to recover toward the 157.50–158.00 zone if the dollar maintains its current tone.
Market Sentiment: Traders are cautiously reversing bearish dollar bets from last week as the USD regains momentum.
Catalysts: Recovery in US Treasury yields and continued BoJ dovishness are pivotal in supporting further Yen weakness.
As traders await fresh economic catalysts, market direction hinges on upcoming central bank signals, China’s trade response, and key inflation reports. Silver’s steady position at $37 reflects cautious optimism, while currency movements suggest divergent sentiment across regions. Volatility may resurface as more macroeconomic data unfolds in the days ahead.
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Markets are treading cautiously ahead of the key US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, with gold prices holding near one-month lows as investor sentiment remains subdued. The US Dollar continues its upward trajectory, supported by easing tariff concerns and hawkish signals from central banks. Meanwhile, silver follows gold lower, major currency pairs face renewed pressure, and traders weigh inflation data and geopolitical risks in a tense global backdrop.
Gold is trading near $3,335, holding above a one-month low as traders remain cautious ahead of Friday’s pivotal US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. The metal struggles to gain momentum amid a stronger US Dollar and easing trade tensions, reflecting a risk-neutral market stance.
Geopolitical Risks: Muted as trade jitters ease; no fresh escalation in global hotspots.
US Economic Data: Market awaiting the NFP release for cues on labor market health and Fed policy.
FOMC Outcome: Recent Fed tone remains cautious, but data dependency reinforces gold’s sensitivity.
Trade Policy: Optimism over US-China trade de-escalation limits haven demand.
Monetary Policy: Hawkish tilt from central banks caps upside potential for non-yielding assets like gold.
Trend: Consolidation near monthly lows
Resistance: $3,345 / $3,358
Support: $3,322 / $3,310
Forecast: Neutral to bearish while below $3,345, with potential downside if NFP surprises to the upside.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish as gold lacks bullish conviction.
Catalysts: Traders are eyeing Friday’s US NFP report, any surprises in wage growth or unemployment rate, and moves in the US Dollar as potential triggers for renewed volatility in gold.
Silver is trading around $29.08, pulling back after recent gains as improving trade sentiment between the US and China dampens safe-haven demand. The market remains cautious ahead of Friday’s US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, with participants weighing the implications for Fed policy and Dollar movement.
Geopolitical Risks: Reduced tensions following US-China trade negotiations lower haven demand.
US Economic Data: Focus shifts to NFP figures, with strong numbers potentially pressuring silver further.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s cautious tone keeps market sensitive to employment and inflation data.
Trade Policy: Positive trade developments ease market anxiety, capping silver’s upside.
Monetary Policy: Hawkish bias from the Fed and global peers keeps real yields firm.
Trend: Bearish short-term pullback
Forecast: Bearish bias remains while below $29.25; downside risk increases if NFP beats expectations.
Market Sentiment: Neutral to slightly bearish as risk appetite improves.
Catalysts: A stronger-than-expected US NFP report could lift the Dollar and weigh on silver, while signs of labor market weakness may help the metal rebound.
The GBP/USD pair is trading around 1.3392, extending its decline as the US Dollar rally gains momentum. Sterling remains under pressure from persistent rate cut speculation surrounding the Bank of England, while stronger US economic data continues to bolster the Dollar.
Geopolitical Risks: Lower geopolitical tensions have reduced demand for the Pound as a risk hedge.
US Economic Data: Robust data, especially ahead of NFP, supports Dollar strength across the board.
FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed rhetoric is reinforcing Greenback dominance.
Trade Policy: Ongoing trade stability removes urgency for haven flows into Sterling.
Monetary Policy: BoE’s dovish signals contrast with Fed’s firmness, deepening divergence.
Trend: Bearish continuation
Resistance: 1.3435 / 1.3480
Support: 1.3360 / 1.3310
Forecast: More downside likely if 1.3360 breaks; oversold bounce possible near 1.3310.
Market Sentiment: Bearish due to Dollar strength and BoE rate cut bets.
Catalysts: The upcoming US NFP report could intensify GBP downside if job numbers outperform expectations.
The USD/JPY pair is trading around 158.70, pulling back slightly after touching a multi-month high. The Japanese Yen is showing signs of safe-haven appeal as renewed tariff tensions revive market caution, though a resilient US Dollar ahead of NFP continues to cap deeper corrections.
Geopolitical Risks: Tariff jitters between the US and China are boosting demand for the Yen as a haven.
US Economic Data: Anticipation of strong US jobs data keeps the Dollar well supported.
FOMC Outcome: A hawkish Fed outlook contrasts with the BoJ’s ultra-dovish stance.
Trade Policy: Renewed trade friction raises global uncertainty, mildly favoring JPY.
Monetary Policy: Policy divergence remains wide, with the BoJ maintaining ultra-loose measures.
Trend: Bullish overall, short-term pullback
Resistance: 159.20 / 160.00
Support: 158.30 / 157.75
Forecast: Dips likely limited; pair could revisit highs if NFP data exceeds expectations.
Market Sentiment: Cautious optimism for USD/JPY, but safe-haven flows into JPY offer temporary relief.
Catalysts: US Non-Farm Payrolls report will be key to determining if USD/JPY can break higher or face deeper retracement.
EUR/GBP is trading around 0.8645, struggling to sustain recovery momentum as the pair remains capped below the key 0.8665 resistance. Traders are awaiting fresh direction from upcoming Eurozone inflation figures, while the Pound holds firm amid broad Euro weakness.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited direct impact, though global trade tensions may create indirect pressure on Eurozone sentiment.
US Economic Data: Broader Dollar strength has little effect here, but global risk trends spill over into cross-pairs.
FOMC Outcome: Minimal direct influence; focus remains on Eurozone vs UK rate outlooks.
Trade Policy: EU trade balance and inflation data are critical for Euro near-term moves.
Monetary Policy: ECB’s cautious stance keeps the Euro vulnerable; BoE’s hawkish tilt supports the Pound.
Trend: Bearish to sideways
Resistance: 0.8665 / 0.8700
Support: 0.8620 / 0.8585
Forecast: Further consolidation likely unless Eurozone CPI surprises to the upside.
Market Sentiment: Cautious; traders remain sidelined ahead of inflation data.
Catalysts: Eurozone HICP flash data and BoE rate expectations to guide near-term direction.
As markets await the US NFP release, gold remains under pressure and the Dollar maintains its strength across the board. With risk sentiment fragile and inflation figures from Europe and Asia on the radar, the coming sessions may bring sharper moves. Traders will be watching closely for any surprises in employment data that could shift expectations around monetary policy and global growth.
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Currency markets are on edge as central bank signals continue to drive volatility across major FX pairs. The Bank of Japan held rates steady, prompting weakness in the Yen across the board, while the Bank of Canada hinted at potential rate cuts, pressuring the Canadian Dollar. Meanwhile, firmer US Dollar demand lifted USD/CAD modestly, and the People’s Bank of China set a slightly higher Yuan midpoint. In the commodities space, WTI crude extended its rally as US sanctions on Russia stoked supply concerns.
WTI crude oil is trading just below the $70.00 mark after rallying sharply in response to U.S. threats of new sanctions on Russia. The prospect of tightening Russian oil exports has further pinched global supply, supporting bullish sentiment. Despite broadly calmer global risk appetite, traders remain focused on oil fundamentals. The market now watches upcoming supply data and any escalation in U.S.-Russia tensions for further direction.
Geopolitical Risks: Rising U.S. sanctions on Russia tighten supply expectations and boost crude prices.
US Economic Data: Mixed demand indicators suggest fragile global consumption, limiting further upside.
FOMC Outcome: A dovish Fed narrative could strengthen risk appetite, indirectly supporting energy assets.
Trade Policy: Broader risk sentiment recovers slightly amid easing trade concerns, reducing demand for havens like oil.
Monetary Policy: With the Fed likely to hold rates, inflation fear remains moderate but supports commodity interest.
Trend: Strong bullish momentum as prices test near $70.00.
Resistance: $70.00 handle followed by $71.20.
Support: $68.60 and $67.40 key support zones.
Forecast: Oil may continue testing $71–$72 if sanction rhetoric escalates further; downside remains limited near $68 unless fundamentals deteriorate.
Market Sentiment: Bullish sentiment dominates, underpinned by tightening supply outlooks.
Catalysts: Oil price direction will hinge on developments around U.S.-Russia sanctions, OPEC+ supply statements, and global demand data (including the EIA inventory report).
GBP/JPY has slipped to around 197.10 in Thursday’s Asian session after the Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.50%. The dovish stance reinforced by an upgraded inflation outlook is weighing on the Japanese Yen, but also breaching support levels for GBP/JPY. At the same time, soft UK labor market signals are increasing expectations of rate cuts from the Bank of England, adding downward pressure on sterling. Overall, investor attention is now firmly on Governor Ueda’s press conference for cues on future BoJ policy direction.
Geopolitical Risks: Elevated global uncertainty keeps risk appetites cautious, benefiting the Yen over the Pound.
US Economic Data: Mixed data support near-term dollar strength, indirectly pressuring GBP/JPY via yield trends.
FOMC Outcome: A steady Fed narrows opportunities for sterling to rally on potential rate divergence.
Trade Policy: Optimism surrounding the US–Japan trade deal offers limited support to GBP/JPY.
Monetary Policy: Diverging central bank policy expectations—BoJ holds while BoE hints at cuts—favor Yen strength even as inflation rises.
Trend: Short-term bearish correction within a broader sideways-to-bullish channel.
Forecast: GBP/JPY may remain under pressure and test 196.80 if seller momentum continues; significant upside seems unlikely unless BoE or risk sentiment shifts materially.
Market Sentiment: Traders are cautious, with sterling-sensitive pairs facing headwinds amid increasing central bank divergence.
Catalysts: BoJ’s press conference commentary (on inflation, yield control, and rate path) is the main driver. UK labor data and BoE commentary will influence the outlook for GBP/JPY direction.
EUR/JPY has dropped to approximately 170.10, reversing gains after the Bank of Japan signaled continued dovish policy. Meanwhile, investor focus is shifting toward upcoming German HICP inflation data, which could impact ECB monetary outlook and influence EUR/JPY direction. The broader risk-off tone following USD strength also weighs on the pair, as safe-haven flows benefit the yen. As the BoJ and ECB diverge in policy expectations, EUR/JPY remains under pressure near key support levels.
Geopolitical Risks: Global political uncertainties support yen appreciation over euro gains.
US Economic Data: Mixed U.S. prints reinforce dollar strength and suppress euro performance.
FOMC Outcome: A steady or dovish Fed bolsters risk-off dynamics, favoring JPY.
Trade Policy: Limited new developments; overall risk sentiment is the prevailing influence.
Monetary Policy: ECB cautious ahead of inflation data, while BoJ remains firmly dovish, pushing EUR/JPY lower.
Trend: Short-term bearish momentum as the pair breaks below a recent range.
Resistance: 170.60 followed by 171.20 on recovery attempts.
Support: Closely watched floor is 170.00, with stronger support around 169.75.
Forecast: EUR/JPY is likely to remain under downward pressure unless German inflation surprises to the upside.
Market Sentiment: Traders are cautious, with global risk caution overshadowing ECB optimism.
Catalysts: German HICP inflation data and ECB commentary will determine if EUR gains traction or JPY dominance continues.
USD/CAD is trading with modest strength around 1.3830, edging higher as the Bank of Canada left its key rate unchanged at 2.75%. The BoC adopted a cautious tone, warning that future rate cuts may be warranted if inflation softens, which has weighed on the Canadian Dollar. At the same time, stronger-than-expected U.S. GDP figures and a steady Federal Reserve contributed to broader USD strength. With the USD holding firm and BoC signaling flexibility, the pair appears set to test resistance levels while downside is becoming limited.
Geopolitical Risks: Elevated U.S.-Canada trade uncertainty continues to dampen CAD sentiment.
US Economic Data: Robust U.S. GDP growth reinforces dollar strength and supports USD/CAD.
FOMC Outcome: A steady-rate Fed stance adds to USD appeal amid diverging policy tone.
Trade Policy: Lingering uncertainty over final trade deals keeps volatility elevated.
Monetary Policy: BoC’s cautious stance and easing bias create a tailwind for USD/CAD.
Trend: Bullish breakout above 1.3800 reflects growing USD strength.
Resistance: 1.3850 followed by the mid-1.39s zone.
Support: 1.3800 targeted for immediate defense; lower buffer at 1.3750.
Forecast: USD/CAD may continue its ascent toward 1.3900 absent signs of CAD support. Significant pullbacks seem less likely unless trade or BoC tones shift.
Market Sentiment: Slightly bullish on USD as diverging central bank outlooks give the pair direction.
Catalysts:
USD/CAD direction will be shaped by any change in BoC commentary, upcoming U.S. growth data, and updates on U.S.-Canada tariff negotiations.
USD/CNY trades near 7.1490 following the PBoC’s weaker-than-expected reference rate fix of 7.1494, compared with the previous fix at 7.1441. This medium-strength fix diverges from market estimates and signals intent to stabilize the yuan amidst domestic slowdown and a stronger dollar backdrop. The mid-point was 568 pips firmer than Reuters forecast, marking the widest gap since late April and sparking exchange-rate support flows. Market attention is now focused on upcoming Chinese economic releases and how closely the spot yuan tracks the official guidance.
Geopolitical Risks: No fresh drama—market focus remains on macro fundamentals and central bank guidance.
US Economic Data: Strong USD demand continues as U.S. data remains robust despite trade uncertainty.
FOMC Outcome: Potential dovish Fed signals could reinforce dollar softness but not necessarily translate into yuan strength.
Trade Policy: Ongoing trade tension rhetoric persists, though recent dialogue shows moderated escalation risks.
Monetary Policy: PBoC’s cautious midpoint signals and liquidity operations suggest intervention preference to contain volatility.
Trend: Mild upward drift in USD/CNY while PBoC allows limited controlled moves.
Resistance: 7.1550, followed by 7.1620 if intervention eases.
Support: Base support at 7.1440, then 7.1300 if guidance softens.
Forecast: Tight range likely between 7.1440–7.1550; a break outside the band may prompt onshore intervention.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously stable as the market continues tracking PBoC calibrated guidance.
Catalysts: Follow-up Chinese economic data (PMI, industrial production) and further PBoC commentary will determine next directional bias for USD/CNY.
With global central banks reinforcing diverging policy paths, traders are recalibrating positions across currencies and commodities. Attention now turns to upcoming inflation data from the Eurozone and North America, which could further shape monetary policy expectations. As market sentiment shifts, volatility is likely to persist across the majors.
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Markets are treading cautiously midweek as investors brace for pivotal central bank decisions. The Japanese Yen is gaining modest ground against a broadly softer US Dollar, with both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan set to announce key policy outcomes. Meanwhile, gold remains rangebound, the US Dollar Index lingers below the 99.00 handle, and the Kiwi continues to slip amid risk aversion. Softer-than-expected Australian inflation figures have also added to the dovish sentiment across Asia-Pacific markets. Traders are closely watching for any signs of divergence between Fed tightening and potential BoJ policy shifts.
Gold (XAU/USD) remains confined within a narrow range, consolidating between $3,320 and $3,330 as traders await clarity from the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. The metal has lacked a decisive driver in recent sessions, hovering near key resistance while maintaining support from ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and a softer US Dollar.
Geopolitical Risks: Continued tensions in Eastern Europe and the South China Sea keep safe-haven demand intact.
US Economic Data: Recent figures show signs of slowing inflation, but labor market resilience supports the Fed’s cautious stance.
FOMC Outcome: Market focus is on whether the Fed signals an extended pause or hints at another hike later this year.
Trade Policy: No major developments, but global trade friction remains a backdrop.
Monetary Policy: Expectations remain for the Fed to hold rates steady; dovish tones could lift gold higher.
Trend: Sideways, with consolidation just below key resistance.
Resistance: $3,335, followed by $3,350.
Support: $3,318 and $3,300.
Forecast: Likely to stay rangebound ahead of the Fed, but a breakout is possible post-decision. Bullish breakout target at $3,350 if dovish signals emerge.
Market Sentiment: Neutral to cautiously bullish as traders position for Fed outcome.
Catalysts: Gold’s next move will be driven by the upcoming Fed rate decision and press conference. Additional catalysts include US labor and inflation data later in the week, as well as fluctuations in Treasury yields and the US Dollar’s overall strength.
The Japanese Yen is edging higher, with USD/JPY trading near 153.90 as the US Dollar retreats broadly ahead of today’s highly anticipated Federal Reserve policy decision. Simultaneously, investors are eyeing the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy stance scheduled later this week, adding dual central bank risk to the currency pair’s outlook.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited influence, though US-China trade discussions and global sentiment shifts may spill over into yen demand.
US Economic Data: Anticipation surrounds the Fed’s tone on inflation and growth, with mixed US data giving room for policy speculation.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed is widely expected to keep rates steady, but any dovish commentary could pressure the USD further, favoring JPY gains.
Trade Policy: Subdued impact currently, but prolonged trade talks could influence global risk appetite.
Monetary Policy: The divergence between BoJ’s cautious tightening stance and the Fed’s pause could drive short-term volatility.
Trend: Mild bearish bias on USD/JPY short-term as JPY regains footing.
Forecast: USD/JPY could slide further toward 153.00 if the Fed strikes a dovish tone, while a surprise hawkish tilt could lift the pair above 154.50.
Market Sentiment: Investors appear cautiously bullish on the yen as central bank risks take center stage.
Catalysts: The key drivers for USD/JPY today are the Fed’s policy decision and forward guidance. Attention will then shift to the BoJ’s upcoming stance on yield curve control and inflation dynamics, with any surprise adjustment likely to spark strong yen volatility.
NZD/USD remains under pressure, extending its decline toward 0.5950 in early Wednesday trading. The Kiwi dollar continues to lose ground as traders shift focus to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, with risk sentiment remaining fragile and commodity-linked currencies on the back foot.
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing global uncertainties, including trade policy concerns and geopolitical jitters, are reducing investor appetite for risk-sensitive assets like the NZD.
US Economic Data: Mixed economic signals from the US have kept the USD relatively supported, while the New Zealand macro calendar remains light.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady, but any dovish signal could offer relief for NZD; a hawkish stance could deepen the decline.
Trade Policy: No major updates, but general trade friction continues to weigh on high-beta currencies.
Monetary Policy: Diverging policy paths between the Fed and the RBNZ are keeping downward pressure on the Kiwi.
Trend: Bearish momentum persists.
Resistance: 0.5990 followed by 0.6025
Support: 0.5950 and 0.5915
Forecast: A sustained break below 0.5950 opens the door toward 0.5915, while a dovish Fed could trigger a short-term bounce back above 0.6000.
Market Sentiment: Bearish tilt continues as traders avoid riskier currencies ahead of the Fed’s decision.
Catalysts: The Fed’s policy announcement and economic projections will steer NZD/USD direction. Any surprises from the Fed could spark volatility, while markets will also monitor risk sentiment post-decision for directional clues.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains capped below the 99.00 handle as traders await the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement. Market participants are positioning cautiously, with subdued Treasury yields and a dip in risk appetite offering limited support to the greenback.
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions are subtly supporting safe-haven demand, though the dollar’s response has been muted.
US Economic Data: Mixed macro data, including recent consumer confidence and housing figures, provide little clarity ahead of the Fed decision.
FOMC Outcome: Markets are pricing in a rate hold; however, guidance and tone from Chair Powell will be crucial for USD direction.
Trade Policy: No significant developments, though broader uncertainty keeps a lid on dollar gains.
Monetary Policy: Market attention is squarely on the Fed’s forward guidance, with expectations for a neutral to slightly dovish tone.
Trend: Sideways-to-soft bias
Resistance: 99.00 and 99.40
Support: 98.65 and 98.20
Forecast: A sustained break above 99.00 could revive bullish interest, but the index may remain rangebound unless the Fed surprises markets.
Market Sentiment: Cautious tone prevails as traders brace for Fed signals.
Catalysts: Fed’s rate decision and Powell’s press conference will be pivotal. A dovish tilt could push DXY lower, while hawkish messaging may trigger a rebound toward 99.40.
The Australian Dollar came under renewed pressure after Q2 CPI data showed inflation easing to 0.7% QoQ, slightly below the expected 0.8%. This outcome has fueled speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may lean more dovish in upcoming meetings, pushing AUD/USD lower toward the 0.6620 region.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited impact on AUD for now, but global risk sentiment remains a background factor.
US Economic Data: Dollar strength remains subdued ahead of the Fed decision, but softer US data hasn’t benefited AUD.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s stance will indirectly affect AUD/USD through USD direction and overall market tone.
Trade Policy: No major changes, though China’s economic outlook remains a medium-term concern for AUD.
Monetary Policy: The softer CPI print strengthens the case for the RBA to remain on hold or potentially cut rates if disinflation continues.
Trend: Bearish short-term
Resistance: 0.6680 and 0.6725
Support: 0.6620 and 0.6575
Forecast: The AUD could test lower supports if dovish RBA expectations solidify and Fed signals retain a hawkish tone.
Market Sentiment: Bearish bias on weak CPI and rising RBA rate cut bets.
Catalysts: Aussie inflation surprise and global central bank divergence remain key themes pressuring AUD.
As the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan take center stage, markets are poised for potentially sharp moves across currencies, commodities, and indices. The Yen remains in focus as a potential beneficiary of policy recalibration, while the Dollar’s indecision reflects broader uncertainty. Gold’s consolidation and the Kiwi’s weakness underscore the cautious tone ahead of central bank guidance. With inflation data softening and geopolitical risks simmering, all eyes now turn to the Fed’s tone and BoJ’s stance for direction.
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Crude oil prices retreated on Tuesday, with WTI slipping below $66.50 as traders adopted a cautious stance amid lingering uncertainty surrounding US-China trade negotiations. Although talks are set to resume, lack of concrete progress kept risk appetite in check. Meanwhile, global demand concerns and anticipation ahead of the upcoming FOMC policy decision added to the subdued tone across energy markets.
Silver (XAG/USD) is trading just below $38.00, showing limited movement as market participants digest the recent softening of global trade tensions. The pause in aggressive rhetoric between the US and China has lifted some pressure off safe-haven assets, though silver remains supported by broader macroeconomic uncertainty. Despite signs of reduced risk aversion, the precious metal continues to hover near recent highs as traders weigh incoming macro data. Market focus now shifts to the upcoming FOMC decision, which could impact demand for non-yielding assets like silver.
Geopolitical Risks: Cooling US-China trade tensions reduce demand for traditional safe-haven assets like silver.
US Economic Data: Investors await US economic reports this week to assess inflation and growth trends.
FOMC Outcome: Traders remain cautious ahead of the Fed’s rate decision, which could influence silver’s directional bias.
Trade Policy: Positive tone in global trade discussions has removed some upside pressure on precious metals.
Monetary Policy: The possibility of rate stability or cuts by major central banks could continue to support silver prices.
Trend: Silver maintains a moderately bullish tone, holding above key moving averages.
Resistance: Immediate resistance lies at $38.30, followed by a stronger cap at $38.90.
Support: Initial support is seen at $37.50, with a deeper floor near $37.00.
Forecast: XAG/USD may consolidate between $37.50–$38.30 until a catalyst breaks the range.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment remains cautiously optimistic as trade tension relief is met with FOMC uncertainty.
Catalysts: FOMC rate decision, US GDP data, and any sudden shift in trade negotiations could drive silver volatility.
WTI crude oil is trading just below $66.50, extending its mild bearish bias amid softer market sentiment. Prices edged lower during early Tuesday trade as demand concerns resurface following weak global manufacturing data. However, downside pressure appears limited as supply constraints and potential OPEC+ actions remain supportive. Traders are now watching US inventory data and broader risk trends to determine short-term direction.
Geopolitical Risks: Middle East tensions have eased slightly, softening risk premiums on crude.
US Economic Data: Recent PMI figures pointed to slowing US industrial activity, weighing on oil demand outlook.
FOMC Outcome: Expectations of a cautious Fed stance may cap downside in oil by weakening the USD.
Trade Policy: Calmer global trade conditions reduce fears of energy demand shocks.
Monetary Policy: Rate cut hopes persist, which could eventually support oil via improved economic sentiment.
Trend: Short-term trend is mildly bearish with a lower high pattern forming.
Forecast: WTI may range between $65.80 and $66.80 pending fundamental catalysts.
Market Sentiment: Investors remain cautious amid mixed global growth signals and fading geopolitical fear.
Catalysts: API inventory report, FOMC decision, and Chinese demand updates may influence short-term price action.
USD/CAD is trading flat around 1.3750 as investors await clarity on ongoing US-Canada trade negotiations. The pair remains supported by a modestly stronger US Dollar but faces resistance from stable crude oil prices that underpin the Canadian Dollar. The lack of clear direction reflects the market’s wait-and-see stance on whether new tariffs will be imposed or avoided.
Geopolitical Risks: Uncertainty over bilateral trade terms continues to weigh on CAD sentiment.
US Economic Data: Mixed US economic indicators offer modest support for the greenback.
FOMC Outcome: A dovish Fed outlook could limit USD upside against the Loonie.
Trade Policy: No breakthrough yet on the US-Canada tariff discussions, keeping traders cautious.
Monetary Policy: The BoC’s neutral stance keeps USD/CAD responsive to US policy moves.
Trend: Sideways to slightly bullish on higher lows above 1.3700.
Resistance: 1.3775 followed by 1.3800.
Support: Initial support lies at 1.3720, then 1.3685.
Forecast: Consolidation expected within 1.3720–1.3780 unless tariff talks spark a breakout.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously neutral as traders await concrete news on tariffs.
Catalysts: US-Canada trade deal updates, oil price moves, and US data releases will guide near-term flows.
NZD/USD is trading just under the 0.6000 mark after rebounding from a one-week low. Despite the modest recovery, the Kiwi remains under pressure due to cautious sentiment ahead of the upcoming FOMC decision. Traders are hesitant to make aggressive moves as they await guidance on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction and its implications for global risk appetite.
Geopolitical Risks: Market tone is cautious amid global uncertainty and central bank divergence.
US Economic Data: Resilient US figures keep the Dollar supported near-term.
FOMC Outcome: Wednesday’s Fed announcement is the main event risk driving Kiwi’s hesitation.
Trade Policy: No fresh catalysts from China or US-NZ relations impacting flows.
Monetary Policy: Divergence between Fed tightening bias and RBNZ’s neutral stance weighs on NZD.
Trend: Slightly bearish while below the 0.6000 threshold.
Resistance: 0.6000 and 0.6030.
Support: 0.5950 and 0.5915.
Forecast: Consolidation likely with bearish tilt unless Fed surprises with dovish tone.
Market Sentiment: Neutral-to-bearish as traders reduce risk exposure ahead of FOMC.
Catalysts: FOMC statement, US job market data, and risk trends will determine short-term direction.
Markets remained steady after US-China trade negotiations concluded without major breakthroughs, with discussions set to resume on Tuesday. The lack of escalatory rhetoric has provided a stabilizing effect on global risk sentiment. While no concrete deals have emerged, the ongoing dialogue signals a willingness from both sides to continue cooperation, easing immediate market anxiety.
Geopolitical Risks: Reduced tensions between the US and China support risk assets.
US Economic Data: Strong fundamentals continue to back US market resilience.
FOMC Outcome: Looming Fed decision caps major moves until clarity emerges.
Trade Policy: Continuation of dialogue supports global trade outlook.
Monetary Policy: Policy divergence remains in focus pending Fed outcome.
Trend: Neutral across major indices amid wait-and-see mode.
Resistance: S&P 500 faces resistance near 5,625; Nasdaq near 19,900.
Support: S&P 500 at 5,550; Nasdaq at 19,720.
Forecast: Consolidation likely ahead of further trade headlines and Fed commentary.
Market Sentiment: Cautious optimism as tensions ease without resolution.
Catalysts: Next round of US-China talks and FOMC decision midweek.
WTI’s pullback reflects broader market hesitation as investors weigh geopolitical developments and upcoming US economic data. With US-China negotiations ongoing and the Federal Reserve poised to release its rate decision, volatility may increase in the short term. Until a clear direction emerges, crude prices are likely to remain confined within a narrow range.
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Markets advanced on Monday as trade optimism surged following reports that the United States and China are set to extend their mutual tariff pause by another 90 days. This move helped lift overall risk sentiment, pressuring safe-haven assets like gold and the US Dollar. Gold dropped below $3,350 amid diminished geopolitical risk, while major currencies such as the British Pound and Euro capitalized on the weakened USD. The Australian Dollar held steady as traders awaited further clarity from upcoming trade negotiations, and the EUR/USD pair held firm above 1.1750 after a constructive US-EU trade accord.
Gold has slipped toward $3,335–$3,340 as easing trade tensions and a firmer USD suppress safe-haven flows. Technicals confirm a bearish tilt with key support zones near $3,310. Unless risk sentiment reverses or dollar weakness re‑emerges, expect price to remain range‑bound or drift lower heading into the FOMC and US jobs data.
Geopolitical Risks: Trade tensions ease amid progress on US–EU and US–China tariff negotiations, undermining gold’s safe‑haven demand and pressuring prices lower
US Economic Data: Robust US data—especially labour and GDP figures—supports a firmer USD, adding headwinds to bullion
FOMC Outcome: Markets anticipate no immediate Fed rate cuts; the upcoming meeting embeds caution, contributing to sideways or bearish trading sentiment
Trade Policy: The US–EU trade agreement (15% tariff framework) plus expected extension of the US–China tariff pause dampen gold’s appeal further
Monetary Policy: No near‑term Fed easing expected; low yields and improving risk sentiment reduce gold’s attractiveness
Trend: Short‑term bearish; gold has broken the rising trendline support at $3,342 and trades below the 21‑day SMA/50-day SMA
Resistance: $3,346 – $3,360 zone (trendline resistance, moving average cluster) acts as critical ceiling. Beyond that, $3,370 and $3,380 look like next hurdles
Support: Near‑term support sits around $3,325–$3,330; a break below $3,310 would expose the $3,283 July low and possibly the $3,254 zone
Forecast: Expect consolidation in the $3,330–$3,345 range. A drop toward $3,310 looks likely unless the USD weakens sharply or trade conflict re‑escalates. Strong break above $3,360 would be needed to signal recovery
Market Sentiment: Sentiment remains cautious to bearish. Traders have adopted a ‘sell on strength’ bias, with gold reaching near-oversold RSI readings (~30), yet lacking strong bullish conviction
Catalysts: Key drivers include the outcome of the FOMC meeting (Wed), US non-farm payrolls (NFP), and any twists in US–China trade negotiations. Further easing in the tariff horizon or disappointment in US data could prompt renewed support for gold; conversely, stronger USD or hawkish Fed tones would push it lower.
The U.S. and China look set to extend their tariff pause through mid-November, easing immediate trade tension risks and supporting a broader risk-on shift in markets. While major breakthroughs remain unlikely at this stage, the extension appears to serve as a stabilizing placeholder as both sides continue to negotiate longer-term dispute resolution.
Geopolitical Risks: Tensions ease as China and the United States are expected to extend their mutual tariff pause by another 90 days, avoiding the reactivation of punitive measures and preserving the path for ongoing diplomacy.
US Economic Data: Indirectly supports the truce narrative; stable data encourages both parties to avoid disruptions that could destabilize global growth.
FOMC Outcome: While not directly linked, the Fed’s current neutral stance may complement the trade pause by maintaining a stable macro environment.
Trade Policy: The tariff pause, set to expire on August 12, is now poised for a 90-day extension as per reports from SCMP. Talks in Stockholm mark the third round of technical negotiations, underscoring progress despite unresolved issues.
Monetary Policy: No changes in direct response to trade updates, though easing trade tensions reduce the urgency for stimulus from either central bank.
Trend: Risk-on trend favored; equity markets and risk-sensitive currencies react positively to reduced trade uncertainty.
Forecast: The extension is expected to stabilize markets through mid-November, encouraging risk appetite while deferring trade-related volatility.
Market Sentiment: Broadly positive. Markets interpret the extension as a de-escalation step, promoting confidence across global risk assets.
Catalysts: Official confirmation of the 90-day extension, results of the Stockholm negotiations, updates on fentanyl-related tariff issues, and the potential scheduling of a Trump–Xi summit.
The Australian Dollar is finding support amid renewed trade optimism and stabilizing risk sentiment. Trading around 0.6560–0.6570, AUD/USD reflects favorable positioning ahead of Australian CPI data and the US FOMC meeting. Expect sideways-to-positive near-term movement, with key levels at 0.6600 resistance and 0.6520 support.
Geopolitical Risks: Risk sentiment has improved on expectations that the US and China will extend their tariff truce, reinforcing positive momentum for commodity-linked currencies like AUD.
US Economic Data: Resilient US indicators bolster the USD, but clarity around inflation and employment data will influence sentiment ahead of US non-farm payrolls.
FOMC Outcome: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% in the July meeting, delaying cut expectations until September.
Trade Policy: Market participants await outcomes from the Stockholm meeting between U.S. and Chinese officials. Reports suggest a 90-day extension to the tariff pause, benefitting risk assets and commodity currencies.
Monetary Policy: The Reserve Bank of Australia is closely watching Q2 CPI data (due Wednesday); any surprise could delay expected RBA rate cuts.
Trend: Short-term bullish; AUD/USD remains in an ascending channel and is trading above the nine-day EMA, with RSI holding above 50 indicating positive momentum.
Resistance: Near-term resistance zone sits around 0.6570–0.6600, with a potential push toward 0.6624, the recent peak.
Support: Immediate support is at the 9-day EMA (~0.6550), with broader support from the 50-day EMA (~0.6520–0.6530).
Forecast: Unless trade talks stall or US data surprises hawkishly, AUD/USD may consolidate within 0.6520–0.6600, with modest upside bias if risk sentiment remains stable.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously optimistic. Investors are favoring risk assets and commodity-linked currencies, though traders remain wary ahead of key economic releases.
Catalysts: Watch for confirmation of the US–China tariff extension, Sweden (Stockholm) summit outcomes, CPI print from Australia, and US non-farm payrolls and FOMC commentary.
GBP/USD is trading near 1.3440, rebounding toward the mid‑1.3400s amid an improved global trade tone. The recent US‑EU trade deal has heightened risk appetite, weighing on the USD’s safe‑haven demand, while traders await key US macro and Fed developments.
Geopolitical Risks: Improved global trade sentiment—via U.S.–EU and U.S.–China trade developments—undermines safe-haven flows into USD and supports GBP.
US Economic Data: Markets await upcoming reports such as Q2 GDP, PCE, and NFP which will shape USD dynamics and GBP/USD direction.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed decision Wednesday is highly anticipated; no change is expected, but rate-cut signals or dovish rhetoric could diminish the USD further.
Trade Policy: The U.S.–EU tariff deal and pending U.S.–China negotiations reinforce a risk-on backdrop, creating tailwinds for GBP/USD.
Monetary Policy: With the BoE likely to signal a rate cut in August amid persistent inflation and softer UK data, GBP gains may be limited.
Trend: Mildly bullish. GBP/USD is maintaining levels above the daily chart’s 100-day EMA, indicating positive momentum on recent upside moves.
Resistance: Key upside targets include 1.3550, then 1.3588 (July 24 high), and 1.3681–1.3725 zone.
Support: Initial support resides around 1.3365 (July 16 low), with further layers near 1.3330 and 1.3236.
Forecast: In absence of fresh bullish catalysts, GBP/USD is likely to consolidate between 1.3360–1.3550, with upside caps unless broader risk sentiment intensifies.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously optimistic. GBP/USD trades with modest gains and limited conviction, reflecting cautious positioning ahead of major data and central bank events. � stays afloat above the monthly swing low.
Catalysts: Key drivers include the Fed’s decision and communication, U.S. economic releases (GDP, PCE, NFP), updates on U.S.–EU and U.S.–China talks, and incoming UK macro data.
EUR/USD is holding firm above 1.1750, buoyed by renewed optimism following the recently inked US–EU trade agreement. Improved risk sentiment continues to weigh on the US Dollar’s safe‑haven appeal, supporting the euro amid mildly firmer global trade dynamics.
Geopolitical Risks:
Relief over a potential escalation in US–EU trade tensions helps diminish safe-haven flows into USD, especially with the tariff truce signaling broader de‑risking in global markets.
US Economic Data:
Mixed US macro prints bolster the case for sideways USD action; investors are watching upcoming inflation, GDP, and jobs data for signs on Fed policy bias.
FOMC Outcome:
With no change expected at the July meeting, markets are sensitive to tone around rate cuts—any dovish commentary could further pressure USD.
Trade Policy:
The newly announced US–EU trade agreement effectively reduces tariff risks for European exporters, lifting sentiment toward the euro and risk-sensitive assets.
Monetary Policy:
The ECB remains on hold but emphasizes that reduced trade uncertainty may allow future dovish guidance, especially if inflation proves sticky.
Trend: Modestly bullish. EUR/USD is holding above its 50-day EMA, supported by steady momentum and breaking out of a recent consolidation zone.
Resistance: Primary resistance lies near 1.1790–1.1800, followed by the 1.1850 zone.
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.1750, with a secondary layer around 1.1715–1.1700. A break below would invite retests of 1.1670 and the 200-day EMA.
Forecast:Expect a consolidation within 1.1750–1.1800. A sustained break above 1.1800 could open the door toward 1.1850–1.1900. Conversely, failure to hold 1.1750 may trigger a pullback toward 1.1700.
Market Sentiment: Risk sentiment remains constructive, with investors favoring euro and European equities amid fading trade shock risk and a weakening USD.
Catalysts: Key upcoming events include US non-farm payrolls, FOMC commentary, European inflation and PMI data, and any follow-up trade clarification or escalation noise from US–EU and US–China channels.
Trade optimism dominated Monday’s session as the anticipated extension of the US-China tariff pause fueled risk-on sentiment across global markets. This pressured the US Dollar, allowed risk-sensitive currencies to gain traction, and dragged gold prices lower. While the Australian Dollar remained subdued ahead of upcoming negotiations, the Pound and Euro advanced amid broader USD weakness. With key data releases and policy commentary ahead, market participants remain focused on trade diplomacy and its ripple effects across major asset classes.
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The US Dollar extended its rebound on Friday, 2025, buoyed by mixed but generally supportive economic data. This strength pressured gold prices lower and dragged the Australian Dollar further down from recent highs. Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar held firm above 0.6000 as risk appetite lingered. In Japan, the Yen saw mild movement, while the Euro held its ground against the Yen following solid Tokyo CPI figures. Market participants are closely watching upcoming US data releases for clues on Fed policy direction.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading in the $3,360–$3,365 range, drifting lower for a third straight session amid renewed USD strength. Risk-on sentiment from advancing trade deal prospects continues to suppress demand for safe-haven assets, keeping bullion close to its weekly trough. Despite trade optimism, lingering uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s policy path has limited further downside pressure.
Geopolitical Risks: Positive developments in US‑Japan and US‑EU trade discussions have diminished risk-off flows, reducing traction for gold as a safe-haven. Emerging regional risks—such as escalating border tensions in Asia—may provide modest intermittent support
US Economic Data: Mixed US macro readings—particularly in labor and services sectors—have kept the dollar buoyant, further weighing on gold prices. Durable goods orders and jobless claims will be closely watched for possible near-term impact.
FOMC Outcome: Ongoing uncertainty over timing and pace of potential rate cuts has prevented sharp USD gains, thereby capping gold losses. Fed skepticism over rate-decision independence may limit directional extremes in currency and metal flows.
Trade Policy: Progress on major trade agreements has reduced geopolitical risk, shifting capital into equities and growth-sensitive assets versus safe-haven metals like gold.
Monetary Policy: With global central banks maintaining dovish to neutral stances, inflationary pressures remain monitored, but lack of hawkish shifts continues to restrain gold upside.
Trend: The short-term trend is mildly bearish, with gold holding below the $3,400 mark and showing a downward bias.
Resistance: Immediate resistance lies at $3,375, followed by $3,400 if bullish reversals gain traction.
Support: Key support zones include $3,355 and the stronger $3,352–$3,350 area near the 100-hour SMA on intraday charts
Forecast: Further USD resilience and fading risk-off sentiment could push gold toward $3,350. A clear break below this level risks a deeper slide toward $3,330–$3,320.
Market Sentiment: Traders are showing risk-on bias, rotating out of hedges like gold and favoring growth-linked assets instead. Caution remains as the Fed meeting nears.
Catalysts: Watch for upcoming US economic indicators (jobless claims, durable goods), ECB rate guidance, US‑China trade developments, and evolving Fed commentary to shape next moves in gold.
The US Dollar Index trades near 97.55, up for a second straight session as mixed US PMI readings and resilient services data buoy the greenback. The USD is gaining traction amid risk-on flows and trade optimism, keeping equity and currency markets on alert.
Geopolitical Risks: Growing optimism over potential US trade agreements with partners like Japan and the EU is shifting capital into the USD, as investors remain cautious without outright risk aversion.
US Economic Data: US flash manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5, signaling contraction, but services PMI rose to 55.2, offsetting risks and reinforcing demand for USD as a balanced play.
FOMC Outcome: With the Fed likely to leave policy unchanged next week, markets are pricing in a 60% chance of a September rate cut—keeping short-term USD momentum moderately resilient.
Trade Policy: Progress in trade talks is supporting global risk sentiment, but residual threats of tariffs also prompt safe-haven interest in USD.
Monetary Policy: A steady Fed and sticky inflation expectations continue to underpin the dollar, with markets expecting monetary policy divergence sooner rather than later.
Trend: DXY is showing a bullish bias as it consolidates above the recent support zone near 97.50, signaling strong near-term appetite for USD.
Resistance: Immediate resistance lies in the 97.80–98.00 zone—its next significant hurdle given prior technical confluence.
Support: Near-term support is anchored at 97.50, where the 9-day EMA and recent support lines help buffer downside pressure.
Forecast: If US data continues to show strength in services or trade news stays constructive, DXY could test higher near 98.00. A drop beneath 97.50 might expose levels toward 97.00.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment is cautiously optimistic—supportive of USD amid mixed macroeconomic readings and trade optimism, but still bounded due to looming tariff uncertainty.
Catalysts: Key upcoming US economic releases—such as durable goods data, S&P Global PMIs, and labor reports—alongside FOMC minutes and trade developments will be critical to the dollar’s next directional move.
AUD/USD retreated to around 0.6570, pulling back from recent eight-month highs near 0.6625–0.6630. The decline reflects renewed strength in the US Dollar amid trade-related developments and profit-taking following a week of strong Aussie gains.
Geopolitical Risks: Uncertainty around potential new U.S. tariffs and evolving trade negotiations—especially involving China and Japan—has raised investor caution, increasing safe-haven flows into the USD.
US Economic Data: Mixed U.S. PMI figures and resilient services data have reinforced demand for the dollar, limiting AUD/USD’s upside and contributing to downward pressure on the pair.
FOMC Outcome: Markets anticipate a steady Fed policy path into next month, keeping yields elevated and supporting USD strength—thus weighing on derived risk-sensitive currencies like AUD.
Trade Policy: While optimism over trade deals lifted AUD earlier in week, the emergence of U.S. tariff letters and evolving bilateral trade clarity has shifted sentiment. This has created a dual headwind: EUR/JPY and USD/CNY moves also reflect the uncertain trade backdrop.
Monetary Policy: Despite strong domestic PMI data, the Reserve Bank of Australia has signaled caution, delaying any rate cut decision and reinforcing AUD’s sensitivity to external USD-positive pressures.
Trend: The short-term trend has turned bearish as the pair retreats from swing highs around 0.6625–0.6630, now consolidating nearer 0.6570.
Resistance: Resistance is near 0.6600–0.6625, which recently marked the breakout to an eight‑month peak.
Support: Immediate support lies at 0.6550, followed by 0.6520, which aligns with the 9-day EMA and previous higher lows.
Forecast: If the USD remains buoyant and U.S. trade uncertainties persist, AUD/USD could gravitate toward 0.6520–0.6500. Holding above 0.6550 would keep the outlook cautiously neutral, pending fresh trade or RBA cues.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment has flipped from risk-on to neutral-cautious toward AUD, reflecting profit-taking after a strong rally and renewed USD demand.
Catalysts: Key drivers ahead include Australian PMI updates, the next tranche of U.S. tariff letters, RBA commentary, and global risk indicators. Investor focus is also on upcoming U.S. durable goods and PPI releases.
NZD/USD is trading near 0.6035, maintaining gains above the 0.6000 threshold amid broad trade optimism. Improved sentiment related to ongoing US-China and broader global trade talks continues to support the Kiwi, while the US Dollar remains relatively soft at present.
Geopolitical Risks: Easing trade tensions—such as potential tariff extensions between the US and China—are positively impacting risk sentiment, which favors the NZD over USD. Continued progress in bilateral deals, especially involving New Zealand’s major trading partners, provides additional support.
US Economic Data: Mixed readings, including a flash manufacturing PMI at 49.5 but a stronger services PMI of 55.2, have kept the USD rangebound and allowed the Kiwi to outperform.
FOMC Outcome: With markets pricing in around a 60% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, USD demand remains muted, aiding NZD gains.
Trade Policy: Optimism around potential US-Japan and US-EU tariff cap agreements (around 15%) is uplifting sentiment and bolstering export-linked currencies like the NZD.
Monetary Policy: Though domestic CPI has cooled, keeping the RBNZ dovish, NZD is benefiting from external trade dynamics rather than firm local policy shifts.
Trend: The short-term trend is positive, marked by a solid break and hold above the 0.6000 psychological level.
Resistance: Near-term resistance resides at 0.6055, with the next zone around 0.6070–0.6100 if trade-positive catalysts persist.
Support: Key support lies at 0.6000, followed by a lower zone around 0.5975–0.5950, where previous consolidation occurred.
Forecast: Sustained risk-on conditions and positive trade developments may push NZD/USD toward 0.6100. A drop below 0.6000 would risk reversing momentum and inviting deeper pullbacks.
Market Sentiment: Risk sentiment remains upbeat, with traders favoring pro-growth and trade-exposed currencies like the Kiwi, especially in the absence of renewed USD strength.
Catalysts: Key upcoming events include US durable goods data, PMI indices, further trade negotiation developments—especially involving China—and RBNZ commentary that may influence Kiwi performance.
EUR/JPY remains anchored near 173.10, extending gains for a seventh consecutive session as softer Tokyo inflation tempers expectations for immediate BoJ tightening. Broad USD weakness, amid upbeat trade sentiment and optimistic equity flows, has lifted the cross, while the euro benefits from firm-side European data.
Geopolitical Risks:
Softer inflation data in Japan, coupled with domestic political uncertainty, has dimmed appetite for the yen in safe-haven flows. Meanwhile, trade optimism is tilting sentiment toward growth assets.
US Economic Data:
Mixed U.S. figures continue to weigh on the dollar, enabling EUR/JPY to maintain elevated levels while providing a favorable backdrop for euro-zone exposure.
FOMC Outcome:
Moderate U.S. rate views and reduced upside for the dollar are contributing to EUR strength against the yen and USD alike.
Trade Policy:
Progress in bilateral trade negotiations, particularly U.S.–Japan developments, is enhancing risk appetite and boosting EUR/JPY momentum.
Monetary Policy:
The BoJ remains cautious despite persistent inflation above the 2% target, implying delayed rate action—supporting EUR/JPY upside via yield differential.
Trend: EUR/JPY retains a bullish structure, trading above the 100-day EMA with confirmed higher highs and lows.
Resistance: Resistance comes into play at 173.50, with the next potential target around 174.50–175.00 if momentum persists.
Support: Support lies near 172.80, followed by more substantial support at 172.00–171.00, where buyers have historically emerged.
Forecast:Unless fresh yen-strengthening catalysts emerge, EUR/JPY may attempt a run toward 174.00–174.50. However, overbought conditions suggest potential consolidation near current levels.
Market Sentiment: Risk-on sentiment remains intact, favoring cross-currencies like EUR/JPY amid broader USD softness and reduced yen demand.
Catalysts: Upcoming Japanese national CPI data, further Tokyo regional inflation updates, U.S. macro releases, and trade headlines—especially U.S.–Japan dialogues—will influence the next directional leg.
Overall, the Dollar’s renewed momentum dominated Friday’s session, sending gold prices lower and weighing on key commodity-linked currencies like the AUD. NZD managed to stay resilient, while EUR/JPY remained supported post-CPI. With market focus turning toward upcoming inflation figures and central bank commentary, volatility is likely to persist into the weekend.
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Markets edged higher on Thursday as renewed optimism around global trade negotiations fueled risk-on sentiment. The US Dollar broadly weakened, allowing the British Pound and New Zealand Dollar to gain ground. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen held firm near two-week highs, and Silver prices dropped toward $39.00 amid fading safe-haven demand. The PBOC’s stronger Yuan fix further signaled cautious confidence from Chinese policymakers.
Silver has dropped toward $39.00, sliding from recent highs as investor optimism around global trade deals reduces safe-haven demand. Despite underlying industrial usage, lack of risk-off momentum and a weaker USD are exerting downward pressure on the metal’s price.
Geopolitical Risks: Heightened optimism surrounding trade negotiations, particularly between the US and its key partners, is sapping demand for safe-haven assets like silver. With fewer geopolitical scares on the horizon, riskier assets are winning trader preference, pushing metals lower.
US Economic Data: Recent US data has been mixed, leaving the dollar somewhat subdued, which typically supports silver. However, the improved trade outlook has had a more dominant effect, overrunning short-term dollar weakness.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s steady tone and lack of hawkish surprises this week are keeping silver near range lows as traders refocus on growth and trade, rather than policy shifts.
Trade Policy: Renewed positivity around trade deals has curbed the recent rally in precious metals, as the perceived need for hedging resides in better economic conditions—not uncertainty.
Monetary Policy: With global central banks maintaining dovish or neutral stances and inflation ticking lower, silver’s appeal is dampened without strong catalysts to drive a move higher.
Trend: Silver is currently in a short-term downtrend, supported only by higher-timeframe moving averages near $38.50, signaling cautious tone among traders.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is at $39.40, with a more significant barrier at $39.80, where bulls would need to break through to regain upward momentum.
Support: Immediate support lies at $38.70, followed by $38.20—a break below this levels increases the chance of a drop toward $38.00.
Forecast: Silver is likely to continue drifting lower if global trade optimism holds firm. A sustained push below $38.50 could confirm a short-term bearish path toward $38.00.
Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment has swung from cautious to more optimistic on trade news, diminishing appetite for protection via precious metals. Silver is trading lower as capital rotates toward equities and cyclical assets.
Catalysts: Watch for fresh trade agreement headlines, US economic releases like PMI or CPI data, and any unexpected central bank commentary that could shift risk sentiment and influence silver pricing.
GBP/USD extended its gains to around 1.3850, surging on the back of renewed optimism over global trade agreements. The British Pound was heavily supported by a weaker US Dollar, as investors increasingly position for improved market sentiment and risk appetite.
Geopolitical Risks: Diminishing concerns over imminent trade disputes have reduced safe-haven demand for the USD, favoring pro-risk currencies like GBP. The upbeat global trade narrative is reinforcing investor confidence in growth-sensitive assets.
US Economic Data: Recent data has shown signs of cooling, dulling the USD’s rally and giving the Pound room to rally. Weakness in US inflation and retail figures this week has supported the move.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s neutral tone and lack of hawkish commentary have further undermined the greenback, tilting currency flows toward higher-yielding and risk-exposed assets.
Trade Policy: Positive signals around US-UK and broader global trade coordination are acting as a tailwind for GBP. Market sentiment reflects growing confidence in smoother trade flows ahead.
Monetary Policy: The BoE’s cautious approach, combined with a delayed Fed, enhances GBP attractiveness—especially in a market leaning toward growth and trade.
Trend: GBP/USD is in a strong uptrend, having broken through multiple resistance levels in the past week, making a bullish structure intact.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is at 1.3880, with a key psychological target at 1.3900.
Support: Support lies at 1.3800, followed by 1.3750, providing a buffer for any pullbacks.
Forecast: As long as the pair maintains above 1.3800, the upside momentum is likely to persist. Sustained trade optimism could push it toward 1.3900+.
Market Sentiment: Risk-on sentiment is supporting GBP flows as traders rotate out of the USD into growth-centric currencies. The Pound benefits significantly from the broader risk-friendly mood.
Catalysts: Key drivers for near-term moves include trade headlines, UK economic releases, and any Fed commentary that may alter USD strength dynamics.
NZD/USD surged past the 0.6050 level as renewed optimism around global trade negotiations powered risk sentiment. The New Zealand Dollar gained traction on the back of strong demand for higher-yielding currencies and a broad-based pullback in the USD.
Geopolitical Risks: Better-than-expected progress in global trade talks, especially involving China and the US, has lifted regional currencies like the NZD amid risk-on sentiment. With uncertainties receding, safe-haven flows are diminishing, further supporting the kiwi.
US Economic Data: Moderate US macro readings this week have eased inflationary concerns, weakening the dollar and providing a constructive backdrop for NZD gains.
FOMC Outcome: Fed officials’ cautious tone continues to temper the greenback’s momentum, helping the NZD/USD cross hold firm above key levels.
Trade Policy: Strengthened trade sentiment is particularly favorable for the export-heavy New Zealand economy, enhancing NZD appeal relative to other currencies.
Monetary Policy: With the RBNZ maintaining its current stance, the NZD’s appeal remains strongly tied to external factors like trade optimism, which currently paints a favorable picture.
Trend: NZD/USD is forming a bullish channel, marked by successive higher highs and lows in recent sessions.
Resistance: The pair faces resistance around 0.6070, with potential upside extending toward 0.6100 if momentum continues.
Support: Key support levels lie at 0.6020, followed by 0.5990, which could serve as entry zones for buyers during pullbacks.
Forecast: A continued positive trade agenda could propel NZD/USD toward 0.6100, but a rejection at 0.6070 may trigger a temporary pullback toward 0.6020–0.6000.
Market Sentiment: Market mood remains strongly risk-on, with investors favoring currencies tied to growth and trade flows, including the kiwi.
Catalysts: Watch for developments in US-China trade dialogues, Australian/NZD inflation releases, and any major shifts in global risk sentiment—all of which could drive further movement in NZD/USD.
USD/CNY is trading near 7.1400 after the PBOC set the reference rate at 7.1385, a modestly stronger level compared to 7.1414 yesterday. The slight adjustment underscores the central bank’s intention to stabilize the yuan as global trade optimism and USD softness continue to influence markets.
Geopolitical Risks: While US‑China trade optimism remains in play, broader geopolitical tensions still loom, prompting cautious currency guidance from Beijing to temper volatility.
US Economic Data: Mixed US macro signals have softened demand for the dollar, but the PBoC’s intervention limits yuan appreciation even during risk-on moves.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s neutral-to-dovish messaging continues to depress the USD, but China’s central bank is tactfully preventing yuan overstrength.
Trade Policy: Ongoing progress in trade discussions adds risk-positive vibes to China’s currency, but Beijing is actively intervening to maintain controlled appreciation.
Monetary Policy: The PBoC remains in a cautionary mode, combining liquidity support domestically with FX stabilization to ensure orderly yuan trading.
Trend: USD/CNY is in a neutral band between 7.1360–7.1460, reflecting PBoC’s tight references and sticky USD dynamics.
Resistance: Resistance lies at 7.1460, the previous fix, with major upside capped around 7.1500.
Support: Key support is near 7.1360, followed by a deeper floor around 7.1300.
Forecast: The yuan is set to trade within the current range unless fresh trade developments or PBoC guidance shift sentiment—being managed to avoid extremes.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment is cautiously optimistic; traders welcome trade progress but are wary of policy intervention limiting yuan moves.
Catalysts: Watch for PBoC statements, Chinese economic releases, and US trade headlines for cues on whether the band will expand or remain constrained.
USD/JPY hit a two‑week low around 156.20, reflecting renewed Japanese Yen strength amid broad USD weakness driven by positive trade sentiment. The domestic currency continues to attract demand as investors rotate out of safe-haven USD into regional currency beneficiaries of risk-on momentum.
Geopolitical Risks:
With no significant global risk events currently unfolding, traders are more focused on carry-driven flows and regional optimism, with limited safe‑haven demand for USD.
US Economic Data:
Mixed US releases this week have softened expectations for further Fed tightening, weakening the USD and indirectly supporting Yen appreciation.
FOMC Outcome:
The Fed’s recently cautious tone reinforces the pattern of USD sluggishness, allowing other currencies like the JPY to benefit.
Trade Policy:
Progress in US-China trade talks is lifting risk-on sentiment globally, which typically leads to USD selling and supports JPY strength in certain carry trade unwinds.
Monetary Policy:
The Bank of Japan’s ongoing ultra‑dovish stance contrasts with slightly softer USD, making yield differentials less relevant in today’s environment—yen appreciation reflects broader FX sentiment instead.
Trend: The short-term trend is bullish for JPY (bearish for USD/JPY) as the pair has broken below recent consolidation around 157.00.
Resistance: Resistance for USD/JPY now sits at 157.00, then 157.50, where old support levels may act as barriers.
Support: Initial support is at 156.00, with the next level seen near 155.50 should momentum continue.
Forecast: If risk appetite remains elevated and USD weakness persists, USD/JPY could test further downside toward the 155.50–156.00 zone before stabilizing.
Market Sentiment: Market sentiment remains risk-on, favoring cyclical and regional currencies over USD as carry trade flows adjust.
Catalysts: Upcoming US labor market data and any renewed global trade headlines will be key in determining if USD/JPY maintains its current downward move.
Risk appetite returned to markets as trade optimism pushed the US Dollar lower and lifted key currencies like the Yen, Kiwi, and Sterling. Commodity moves mirrored this shift, with Silver pulling back as investors rotated away from safety. All eyes now turn to upcoming trade developments and key US economic data that may set the tone for the week ahead.
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Markets traded with mixed momentum on Wednesday, July 23, 2025, as optimism surrounding renewed US-China trade talks lifted risk sentiment, supporting the Australian Dollar. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen weakened sharply amid political uncertainty at home. WTI crude extended its losses below $65.50 on lingering demand concerns, while the PBOC’s slightly stronger CNY fix signaled a cautious policy stance.
AUD/JPY extended gains on Tuesday, trading near the 96.50 mark as broad-based Yen weakness drove the cross higher. However, the pair struggled to find momentum above mid-96.00s amid cautious risk appetite and lack of fresh bullish triggers.
Geopolitical Risks: Japanese domestic political instability continues to weigh on the Yen, with concerns over leadership approval ratings and policy continuity dampening safe-haven demand.
US Economic Data: Softer US indicators have reduced expectations of immediate Fed tightening, prompting a general risk-on tone that favors yield-sensitive currencies like the Aussie.
FOMC Outcome: Dovish Fed commentary has shifted investor preference toward higher-yielding assets, reducing demand for safe havens such as the Yen.
Trade Policy: Positive developments in US-China negotiations are boosting optimism in the Asia-Pacific region, which indirectly benefits the AUD.
Monetary Policy: Divergence between the RBA’s cautious tone and the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose stance continues to widen, keeping upward pressure on the cross.
Trend: The short-term bias remains bullish but appears to be losing steam as the pair hits strong resistance.
Resistance: Immediate resistance lies at 96.80, followed by 97.20 if momentum resumes.
Support: Key support is seen at 95.90, with a deeper pullback exposing 95.50.
Forecast: AUD/JPY may remain elevated but lacks clear follow-through above 96.50–97.00, suggesting consolidation unless fresh catalysts emerge.
Market Sentiment: Overall sentiment favors risk assets, but hesitation at higher levels reflects underlying caution in the FX space.
Catalysts: A surprise in Japanese macro data or any shift in BOJ rhetoric could trigger renewed Yen strength, while further trade optimism may lift AUD/JPY above recent highs.
AUD/USD climbed to 0.6785 on Tuesday, supported by renewed optimism around US-China trade negotiations. A broadly weaker US Dollar and upbeat regional sentiment helped the Aussie extend its recent rebound, although near-term resistance capped further upside.
Geopolitical Risks: Easing tensions between the US and China have brightened the outlook for Australian exports, given Australia’s trade dependence on China.
US Economic Data: Weaker US PMI and consumer data reduced bets on Fed hawkishness, dragging the greenback lower and providing a tailwind for AUD/USD.
FOMC Outcome: Markets are increasingly pricing in a policy pause or potential rate cuts in late 2025, placing downward pressure on the USD.
Trade Policy: Positive progress in US-China trade dialogue has improved risk appetite across Asia-Pacific markets, boosting AUD as a pro-growth currency.
Monetary Policy: RBA’s reluctance to ease despite global dovish tilt adds resilience to AUD, especially against a softening USD.
Trend: The pair is recovering from last week’s lows, showing early signs of a bullish reversal.
Resistance: Key resistance is located at 0.6800, followed by 0.6845, which coincides with the 100-day MA.
Support: Initial support lies at 0.6740, with further downside limited to 0.6700 unless sentiment turns.
Forecast: AUD/USD may aim for a test of the 0.6800–0.6840 zone if trade optimism holds and the USD stays weak.
Market Sentiment: Risk-on flows are favoring commodity currencies like the AUD, while USD softness continues to amplify the move.
Catalysts: Any further breakthroughs in US-China negotiations or dovish Fed commentary could drive fresh upside in AUD/USD.
USD/JPY rebounded sharply to 157.85, reversing earlier losses after hitting a two-week low near 156.20. The sudden yen sell-off was driven by heightened political uncertainty in Japan and firmer U.S. yields, which halted safe-haven flows.
Geopolitical Risks: Domestic political instability in Japan raised investor caution, undermining demand for the yen despite global risk aversion.
US Economic Data: Resilient U.S. PMI and housing data pushed Treasury yields higher, boosting USD/JPY as interest rate differentials widened.
FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed rhetoric continues to support the USD, especially against currencies like the yen that are tethered to ultra-loose monetary policy.
Trade Policy: Little trade-related news directly impacting JPY, but overall sentiment around global growth continues to affect safe-haven dynamics.
Monetary Policy: BoJ maintains dovish stance, with no indication of rate hikes, further weakening the yen versus USD, which remains yield-attractive.
Trend: USD/JPY remains in a broader uptrend despite recent volatility.
Resistance: Immediate resistance lies at 158.20, followed by 159.00, a level tested earlier this month.
Support: Initial support is seen near 157.00, with stronger demand around the 156.20 recent low.
Forecast: USD/JPY may resume its climb toward 158.50–159.00 if U.S. yields continue to rise and Japanese political concerns persist.
Market Sentiment: Risk appetite is moderately supported by U.S. data, but yen sentiment is fragile amid Japan’s political uncertainty.
Catalysts: Developments in Japanese leadership stability and further moves in U.S. yields will steer near-term direction in USD/JPY.
USD/CNY trades near 7.1490 after the PBoC set the daily reference rate at 7.1414, slightly stronger than the previous fix of 7.1460. The central bank’s action shows continued efforts to manage yuan stability amid ongoing economic and geopolitical headwinds.
Geopolitical Risks: Lingering concerns over U.S.-China trade and tech tensions remain, but no fresh escalation has surfaced.
US Economic Data: Firm U.S. data supports the dollar, keeping USD/CNY elevated despite the PBoC’s attempts to slow depreciation.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s hawkish stance maintains pressure on the yuan as U.S.-China rate differentials stay wide.
Trade Policy: Progress in U.S.-China trade talks has marginally improved sentiment, but structural tensions persist.
Monetary Policy: PBoC remains accommodative with targeted stimulus, while keeping FX interventions subtle to prevent sharp yuan declines.
Trend: Sideways to mildly bullish bias for USD/CNY as the pair holds above 7.1400.
Resistance: Upside barriers appear at 7.1550, then 7.1620.
Support: Immediate support sits at the 7.1400 level, followed by the 7.1300 zone.
Forecast: USD/CNY may remain range-bound between 7.1400–7.1600, as the PBoC manages volatility while the USD remains underpinned.
Market Sentiment: Cautious optimism on China’s recovery and trade progress is tempered by U.S. dollar strength and policy divergence.
Catalysts: Further PBoC moves, incoming Chinese data, and U.S. rate expectations will shape next direction for USD/CNY.
WTI crude oil slid to $65.30, extending its decline amid mounting concerns over global oil demand. Weak industrial data from China and rising U.S. inventories have pressured prices lower, with traders reassessing the outlook for energy consumption in the second half of 2025.
Global Supply Concerns: Middle East tensions remain subdued, offering limited support to prices.
Geopolitical Risks:
Escalating US-China tariff concerns revive demand-side caution.
US Economic Data:
Rising stockpiles and softer gasoline demand from EIA reports suggest weaker short-term consumption.
FOMC Outcome:
Hawkish Fed tone reinforces recession fears, dampening oil demand outlook.
Trade Policy:
Uncertainty over U.S.-China trade dynamics adds to the cautious sentiment in commodity markets.
Trend: Bearish; WTI has broken below key support zones and shows no signs of a reversal yet.
Resistance: First resistance at $66.20, followed by $67.50.
Support: Initial support lies at $65.00, with next levels near $63.40.
Market Sentiment: Risk-averse as demand signals weaken and macroeconomic outlook dims.
Catalysts: Next EIA inventory data, Chinese manufacturing PMIs, and geopolitical surprises will be crucial for price direction.
In summary, risk-on flows dominated the session, helping commodity currencies like the Aussie extend gains, while safe-haven assets such as the Yen came under pressure. Oil’s continued slump reflected persistent demand uncertainty, but overall market sentiment improved slightly as trade optimism resurfaced. Traders now turn their attention to upcoming macro data and central bank cues for further direction.
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