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Markets traded with mixed momentum on Wednesday, July 23, 2025, as optimism surrounding renewed US-China trade talks lifted risk sentiment, supporting the Australian Dollar. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen weakened sharply amid political uncertainty at home. WTI crude extended its losses below $65.50 on lingering demand concerns, while the PBOC’s slightly stronger CNY fix signaled a cautious policy stance.
AUD/JPY extended gains on Tuesday, trading near the 96.50 mark as broad-based Yen weakness drove the cross higher. However, the pair struggled to find momentum above mid-96.00s amid cautious risk appetite and lack of fresh bullish triggers.
Geopolitical Risks: Japanese domestic political instability continues to weigh on the Yen, with concerns over leadership approval ratings and policy continuity dampening safe-haven demand.
US Economic Data: Softer US indicators have reduced expectations of immediate Fed tightening, prompting a general risk-on tone that favors yield-sensitive currencies like the Aussie.
FOMC Outcome: Dovish Fed commentary has shifted investor preference toward higher-yielding assets, reducing demand for safe havens such as the Yen.
Trade Policy: Positive developments in US-China negotiations are boosting optimism in the Asia-Pacific region, which indirectly benefits the AUD.
Monetary Policy: Divergence between the RBA’s cautious tone and the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose stance continues to widen, keeping upward pressure on the cross.
Trend: The short-term bias remains bullish but appears to be losing steam as the pair hits strong resistance.
Resistance: Immediate resistance lies at 96.80, followed by 97.20 if momentum resumes.
Support: Key support is seen at 95.90, with a deeper pullback exposing 95.50.
Forecast: AUD/JPY may remain elevated but lacks clear follow-through above 96.50–97.00, suggesting consolidation unless fresh catalysts emerge.
Market Sentiment: Overall sentiment favors risk assets, but hesitation at higher levels reflects underlying caution in the FX space.
Catalysts: A surprise in Japanese macro data or any shift in BOJ rhetoric could trigger renewed Yen strength, while further trade optimism may lift AUD/JPY above recent highs.
AUD/USD climbed to 0.6785 on Tuesday, supported by renewed optimism around US-China trade negotiations. A broadly weaker US Dollar and upbeat regional sentiment helped the Aussie extend its recent rebound, although near-term resistance capped further upside.
Geopolitical Risks: Easing tensions between the US and China have brightened the outlook for Australian exports, given Australia’s trade dependence on China.
US Economic Data: Weaker US PMI and consumer data reduced bets on Fed hawkishness, dragging the greenback lower and providing a tailwind for AUD/USD.
FOMC Outcome: Markets are increasingly pricing in a policy pause or potential rate cuts in late 2025, placing downward pressure on the USD.
Trade Policy: Positive progress in US-China trade dialogue has improved risk appetite across Asia-Pacific markets, boosting AUD as a pro-growth currency.
Monetary Policy: RBA’s reluctance to ease despite global dovish tilt adds resilience to AUD, especially against a softening USD.
Trend: The pair is recovering from last week’s lows, showing early signs of a bullish reversal.
Resistance: Key resistance is located at 0.6800, followed by 0.6845, which coincides with the 100-day MA.
Support: Initial support lies at 0.6740, with further downside limited to 0.6700 unless sentiment turns.
Forecast: AUD/USD may aim for a test of the 0.6800–0.6840 zone if trade optimism holds and the USD stays weak.
Market Sentiment: Risk-on flows are favoring commodity currencies like the AUD, while USD softness continues to amplify the move.
Catalysts: Any further breakthroughs in US-China negotiations or dovish Fed commentary could drive fresh upside in AUD/USD.
USD/JPY rebounded sharply to 157.85, reversing earlier losses after hitting a two-week low near 156.20. The sudden yen sell-off was driven by heightened political uncertainty in Japan and firmer U.S. yields, which halted safe-haven flows.
Geopolitical Risks: Domestic political instability in Japan raised investor caution, undermining demand for the yen despite global risk aversion.
US Economic Data: Resilient U.S. PMI and housing data pushed Treasury yields higher, boosting USD/JPY as interest rate differentials widened.
FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed rhetoric continues to support the USD, especially against currencies like the yen that are tethered to ultra-loose monetary policy.
Trade Policy: Little trade-related news directly impacting JPY, but overall sentiment around global growth continues to affect safe-haven dynamics.
Monetary Policy: BoJ maintains dovish stance, with no indication of rate hikes, further weakening the yen versus USD, which remains yield-attractive.
Trend: USD/JPY remains in a broader uptrend despite recent volatility.
Resistance: Immediate resistance lies at 158.20, followed by 159.00, a level tested earlier this month.
Support: Initial support is seen near 157.00, with stronger demand around the 156.20 recent low.
Forecast: USD/JPY may resume its climb toward 158.50–159.00 if U.S. yields continue to rise and Japanese political concerns persist.
Market Sentiment: Risk appetite is moderately supported by U.S. data, but yen sentiment is fragile amid Japan’s political uncertainty.
Catalysts: Developments in Japanese leadership stability and further moves in U.S. yields will steer near-term direction in USD/JPY.
USD/CNY trades near 7.1490 after the PBoC set the daily reference rate at 7.1414, slightly stronger than the previous fix of 7.1460. The central bank’s action shows continued efforts to manage yuan stability amid ongoing economic and geopolitical headwinds.
Geopolitical Risks: Lingering concerns over U.S.-China trade and tech tensions remain, but no fresh escalation has surfaced.
US Economic Data: Firm U.S. data supports the dollar, keeping USD/CNY elevated despite the PBoC’s attempts to slow depreciation.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s hawkish stance maintains pressure on the yuan as U.S.-China rate differentials stay wide.
Trade Policy: Progress in U.S.-China trade talks has marginally improved sentiment, but structural tensions persist.
Monetary Policy: PBoC remains accommodative with targeted stimulus, while keeping FX interventions subtle to prevent sharp yuan declines.
Trend: Sideways to mildly bullish bias for USD/CNY as the pair holds above 7.1400.
Resistance: Upside barriers appear at 7.1550, then 7.1620.
Support: Immediate support sits at the 7.1400 level, followed by the 7.1300 zone.
Forecast: USD/CNY may remain range-bound between 7.1400–7.1600, as the PBoC manages volatility while the USD remains underpinned.
Market Sentiment: Cautious optimism on China’s recovery and trade progress is tempered by U.S. dollar strength and policy divergence.
Catalysts: Further PBoC moves, incoming Chinese data, and U.S. rate expectations will shape next direction for USD/CNY.
WTI crude oil slid to $65.30, extending its decline amid mounting concerns over global oil demand. Weak industrial data from China and rising U.S. inventories have pressured prices lower, with traders reassessing the outlook for energy consumption in the second half of 2025.
Global Supply Concerns: Middle East tensions remain subdued, offering limited support to prices.
Geopolitical Risks:
Escalating US-China tariff concerns revive demand-side caution.
US Economic Data:
Rising stockpiles and softer gasoline demand from EIA reports suggest weaker short-term consumption.
FOMC Outcome:
Hawkish Fed tone reinforces recession fears, dampening oil demand outlook.
Trade Policy:
Uncertainty over U.S.-China trade dynamics adds to the cautious sentiment in commodity markets.
Trend: Bearish; WTI has broken below key support zones and shows no signs of a reversal yet.
Resistance: First resistance at $66.20, followed by $67.50.
Support: Initial support lies at $65.00, with next levels near $63.40.
Market Sentiment: Risk-averse as demand signals weaken and macroeconomic outlook dims.
Catalysts: Next EIA inventory data, Chinese manufacturing PMIs, and geopolitical surprises will be crucial for price direction.
In summary, risk-on flows dominated the session, helping commodity currencies like the Aussie extend gains, while safe-haven assets such as the Yen came under pressure. Oil’s continued slump reflected persistent demand uncertainty, but overall market sentiment improved slightly as trade optimism resurfaced. Traders now turn their attention to upcoming macro data and central bank cues for further direction.
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Global markets opened Tuesday with a cautious tone as investors weighed U.S.-EU trade tensions, signs of global supply pressures in oil markets, and fresh rate cut speculation from New Zealand. The U.S. Dollar held firm near the 98.00 level on the DXY, while commodity currencies like the NZD and WTI crude faced renewed selling pressure. Euro remained resilient, underpinned by diplomatic unease, while the Chinese yuan reference rate from the PBOC indicated a stable but watchful stance.
The US Dollar Index remains steady around 98.00, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid limited risk appetite and mixed macroeconomic signals. The greenback is holding firm as traders await more clarity on upcoming economic data and central bank cues.
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing tensions in global trade relations, particularly between the US and China, are fostering a defensive market stance. Investors continue to favor the US dollar as a safe-haven in times of geopolitical uncertainty.
US Economic Data: A lack of significant economic releases this week has kept the dollar rangebound. Traders are looking ahead to PMI and GDP figures later in the week for potential directional cues.
FOMC Outcome: The Federal Reserve’s recent cautious commentary has reinforced expectations of a prolonged pause in rate hikes. This has helped anchor the dollar within a tight band despite volatility in other asset classes.
Trade Policy: Concerns about a slowdown in trade activity and looming tariff disputes are maintaining investor wariness. These factors indirectly support the dollar by limiting risk-taking behavior across global markets.
Monetary Policy: With inflation data showing signs of cooling, the Fed is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach. Markets are pricing in fewer chances of another hike in the near term, but sticky inflation remains a wildcard.
Trend: The short-term trend is neutral-to-bullish with price consolidating above key support levels. The dollar index is attempting to base around the 97.75 zone.
Resistance: Immediate resistance lies at 98.30, followed by 98.65 if bullish momentum returns.
Support: Key support levels are identified at 97.75 and 97.50, where recent buyers have emerged.
Forecast: As long as the index holds above 97.75, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic. A daily close above 98.30 could open the door to retest higher resistance zones.
Market Sentiment: raders are maintaining a neutral stance with slight risk aversion, favoring the dollar as a protective play. Sentiment will remain cautious unless a strong economic trigger emerges.
Catalysts: Upcoming US PMI data, comments from Fed officials, and developments in global trade negotiations are the primary short-term catalysts. Any surprises could trigger renewed volatility in the dollar.
NZD/USD trades under pressure, slipping below the 0.5950 mark as cautious risk sentiment dominates market flows. The kiwi dollar faces headwinds from global growth concerns, weak Chinese demand signals, and lackluster domestic momentum.
Geopolitical Risks: Softer economic data from China—New Zealand’s top trading partner—raises fresh concerns about the regional outlook. This continues to dampen investor confidence in the NZD.
US Economic Data: With the US Dollar staying firm on safe-haven demand, riskier currencies like the kiwi are feeling the squeeze, especially with no strong local data to support NZD.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s cautious stance offers the USD continued underlying strength, as rate cut expectations are delayed. This puts downward pressure on the kiwi in relative terms.
Trade Policy: Concerns around global trade slowdown, particularly in Asia-Pacific, weigh heavily on the export-reliant New Zealand economy.
Monetary Policy: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand remains in a wait-and-see mode, with rate cuts unlikely in the short term, yet growth struggles keep outlook mixed.
Trend: Short-term bearish with lower highs forming since late last week.
Resistance: Upside capped near 0.5985, followed by 0.6010.
Support: Key levels to watch include 0.5920 and then 0.5890.
Forecast: A close below 0.5920 could trigger a deeper correction toward 0.5890 or lower. Bulls need to reclaim 0.5980+ to reverse the bias.
Market Sentiment: Risk-averse tone continues to pressure the kiwi as traders avoid high-beta currencies in favor of stability.
Catalysts: Upcoming US PMI numbers, any surprise RBNZ commentary, and developments in China’s economic stimulus measures could be potential movers.
EUR/USD remains firm near the 1.1700 level after earlier gains, as traders weigh growing trade tensions between the US and EU against broad USD caution. Despite geopolitical friction, the euro continues to benefit from relatively stable European data and hawkish ECB signals.
Geopolitical Risks: Escalating trade friction between the US and EU over subsidies and digital tax policy injects uncertainty into market outlooks, though the euro remains resilient.
US Economic Data: Soft US manufacturing and consumer confidence figures this week have limited further upside in the dollar, allowing EUR/USD to consolidate near highs.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s cautious tone reinforces expectations of no immediate policy shift, capping USD upside and favoring euro stability.
Trade Policy: New trade levies being considered by the US against European goods have not yet spooked markets broadly but remain a key risk event in the coming sessions.
Monetary Policy: ECB policymakers have held a firmer line on inflation control, contrasting slightly with the Fed’s dovish tilt, which supports EUR buying near dips.
Trend: Short-term bullish as price holds above the 20-day EMA and reclaims former resistance.
Resistance: Initial cap at 1.1725, with a breakout targeting 1.1760.
Support: Immediate support seen at 1.1675, then 1.1630.
Forecast: If EUR/USD sustains above 1.1700, bulls may target 1.1760. A break below 1.1670 would shift short-term momentum back to neutral.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously optimistic in the eurozone, though trade risks limit aggressive bullish positioning.
Catalysts: Upcoming Eurozone PMI data and any fresh trade rhetoric from Washington could significantly impact price direction.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1460 on Monday, stronger than the prior fix of 7.1522 and also firmer than market expectations. The move signals ongoing official resistance to yuan depreciation, as authorities attempt to stabilize the currency amid capital outflow risks and persistent economic softness.
Geopolitical Risks: US-China diplomatic tensions continue to simmer, but markets remain focused on currency management and domestic Chinese economic performance.
US Economic Data: Muted US data this week reduced upward pressure on the dollar, giving China room to guide the yuan higher without risking disruptive capital shifts.
FOMC Outcome: A dovish Fed outlook caps USD gains, allowing the PBOC to maintain its tightening bias on the yuan fix.
Trade Policy: Beijing’s approach appears to be discouraging aggressive depreciation, possibly to avoid reigniting trade friction with Washington.
Monetary Policy: While the PBOC has maintained an accommodative stance, it continues to manage the yuan fix tightly to project financial stability and confidence.
Trend: Mildly bearish for USD/CNY as fixings suggest downside pressure.
Resistance: Short-term resistance near 7.1550, with a breach likely to invite PBOC intervention.
Support: Initial support seen at 7.1400; stronger support lies at 7.1300.
Forecast: USD/CNY may trade in a narrow 7.1400–7.1550 band unless stronger directional drivers emerge from data or PBOC shifts.
Market Sentiment: Stable-to-cautious, as investors weigh China’s recovery trajectory against central bank support for the yuan.
Catalysts: Upcoming Chinese PMI data, fiscal stimulus signals, and global USD trends will influence next moves.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell toward $65.50 as concerns resurfaced about rising global supply and renewed trade tensions, dampening sentiment across the oil market. A stronger US Dollar and tariff-related fears further weighed on oil prices.
Global Supply Concerns: Rising OPEC+ output and resilient US production raise oversupply risks.
Geopolitical Risks:
Escalating US-China tariff concerns revive demand-side caution.
US Dollar Strength:
A firmer DXY limits upside for USD-denominated commodities like crude.
Demand Outlook:
Slowing global manufacturing activity weakens oil demand expectations.
Inventory Data Ahead: Traders await fresh EIA stockpile figures for directional cues.
Trend: Bearish
Resistance: $66.80 / $68.00
Support: $65.20 / $64.00
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish as traders react to both supply-side pressures and macroeconomic signals.
Catalysts: EIA inventory report, US-China trade rhetoric, global demand forecasts.
Today’s sentiment reflects a delicate balance between geopolitical risks and central bank expectations. With oil pulling back and currency markets reacting to inflation prints and trade headlines, investors remain risk-averse heading into midweek. Continued developments in rate outlooks and diplomatic friction will be key catalysts for the next moves across currencies, commodities, and global equities.
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Gold prices extended their upward momentum on Monday, trading near the $3,350 mark as global trade tensions and cautious risk sentiment spurred demand for safe-haven assets. The US Dollar remained mixed across major pairs, reflecting investor hesitation amid uncertainty over potential tariffs and sluggish economic signals. Meanwhile, other major currencies like the euro and the British pound struggled to gain traction, while the Canadian and New Zealand dollars held firm despite external pressures. As markets digest geopolitical and economic cues, traders await further clarity from upcoming central bank decisions and macro releases.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading with mild gains near $3,350 as investors seek safety amid escalating global trade tensions and soft USD performance. The precious metal continues to benefit from its safe-haven appeal, particularly as markets brace for possible shifts in international tariffs and economic policy.
Geopolitical Risks: Rising concerns about a potential breakdown in global trade negotiations, particularly between the US and EU, have heightened market anxiety, pushing investors toward gold.
US Economic Data: Recent economic indicators in the US have shown mixed results, increasing uncertainty over the Fed’s next move, which in turn supports gold prices.
FOMC Outcome: Market participants remain cautious ahead of upcoming FOMC communications, expecting a more dovish stance that could weaken the dollar further.
Trade Policy: Heightened speculation about the introduction or expansion of trade levies between major economies has underpinned safe-haven demand
Monetary Policy: With inflation appearing sticky and the global economic outlook softening, central banks may opt for prolonged accommodative policies, bolstering gold.
Trend: Bullish momentum persists as gold holds above key moving averages.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is seen at $3,370, with stronger resistance near $3,400.
Support: Key support lies at $3,320, followed by $3,300.
Forecast: A sustained break above $3,370 could signal further upside, especially if global tensions intensify.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment remains risk-off, favoring defensive assets like gold amid market uncertainty.
Catalysts: Developments in trade negotiations, key US economic releases, and central bank rhetoric will be closely watched as primary market movers.
GBP/USD is hovering around the 1.3400 level, consolidating after recent declines that brought it near a two-month low. The pair remains under pressure due to a firm US Dollar and cautious investor sentiment ahead of key economic releases from both the UK and US.
Geopolitical Risks: Minimal, with no new UK-EU tensions affecting trade outlook.
US Economic Data: Mixed US indicators are providing limited direction to the pair.
FOMC Outcome: Dovish Fed tone has capped USD strength but hasn’t reversed GBP losses.
Trade Policy: Ongoing global tariff concerns continue to support safe-haven flows into the USD.
Monetary Policy: Markets expect the Bank of England to maintain a cautious approach amid soft inflation data.
Trend: Bearish bias persists as the pair remains below the 100-day EMA.
Resistance: 1.3440 followed by 1.3485.
Support: 1.3360 and 1.3300 remain key downside levels.
Forecast: GBP/USD may continue rangebound trading with a bearish tilt unless bulls reclaim the 1.3440 resistance area.
Market Sentiment: Bearish to neutral; traders are wary of further GBP weakness if UK economic indicators disappoint.
Catalysts: Focus will be on UK PMI and US jobless claims for directional cues later this week.
NZD/USD is trading subdued near 0.5950 after failing to rebound from overnight losses. The pair remains pressured as investors digest a softer-than-expected CPI print from New Zealand and the PBoC’s cautious policy stance, which reinforced the broader risk-off mood across Asia-Pacific markets.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited geopolitical tension, but sentiment is fragile amid lingering trade worries.
US Economic Data: Steady US data supports the Dollar, adding pressure to the Kiwi.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s dovish stance has had limited impact on NZD amid stronger USD demand.
Trade Policy: PBoC’s conservative yuan fix signals concern over capital outflows and weak domestic demand, adding pressure to risk-sensitive currencies.
Monetary Policy: RBNZ is expected to remain on hold following soft CPI data, reducing rate hike bets further.
Trend: Bearish below the 200-day moving average.
Resistance: 0.5985 and 0.6020.
Support: 0.5920 and 0.5880.
Forecast: The pair could slip further toward the 0.5900 zone if risk sentiment weakens and US Dollar strength persists.
Market Sentiment: Bearish; traders are cautious on the Kiwi after disappointing inflation data and tepid Chinese demand signals.
Catalysts: Upcoming US housing and PMI figures could provide the next directional impulse.
USD/CAD is trading resiliently above the 1.3700 mark as markets remain cautious amid persistent tariff-related uncertainties. The Canadian Dollar is weighed down by weaker crude oil prices and limited domestic data, while the Greenback stays supported by a broadly risk-averse environment.
Geopolitical Risks: Rising global trade tensions, particularly between the US and key partners, continue to inject caution into markets.
US Economic Data: Mixed signals from the US economy support USD’s safe-haven appeal.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s latest signals of a “wait-and-see” approach have limited impact as risk sentiment drives USD strength.
Trade Policy: Ongoing uncertainty around US tariff plans has kept traders wary, indirectly benefiting the USD.
Monetary Policy: The BoC remains sidelined with no immediate signs of policy shifts, while the Fed’s steady tone favors the status quo.
Trend: Bullish while above 1.3680 support zone.
Resistance: 1.3745 and 1.3800.
Support: 1.3680 and 1.3630.
Forecast: USD/CAD could aim for 1.3800 if risk aversion deepens and oil prices remain weak.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bullish on USD/CAD; broader sentiment favors safe havens.
Catalysts: Focus turns to US retail and housing data; energy price movements could also influence CAD performance.
EUR/USD is edging lower toward the 1.1600 mark as traders adopt a cautious stance amid persistent trade uncertainty between the US and the EU. The pair remains under pressure following softer Eurozone economic data, while the US Dollar benefits from a flight to safety.
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing US-EU trade tensions and broader global tariff concerns continue to weigh on sentiment.
US Economic Data: The Dollar finds support from relatively stable macroeconomic readings and risk-off flows.
FOMC Outcome: Fed officials remain data-dependent, but their neutral stance supports USD strength amid trade worries.
Trade Policy: Worries over potential EU-targeted US tariffs are dampening demand for the Euro.
Monetary Policy: The ECB is expected to stay dovish as inflation pressures cool, widening the policy divergence with the Fed.
Trend: Bearish bias below 1.1645 resistance.
Resistance: 1.1645 and 1.1680.
Support: 1.1600 and 1.1550.
Market Sentiment: Bearish on EUR/USD; traders prefer USD as uncertainty clouds the outlook.
Catalysts: Eyes on Eurozone HICP data, upcoming EU trade talks, and US macro releases for direction.
Gold remains supported by persistent global trade uncertainty and a softening USD backdrop, while other major pairs reflect mixed sentiment driven by local economic data and policy speculation. With key inflation figures and central bank rhetoric on the horizon, market direction may hinge on fresh catalysts. Traders are likely to stay cautious, keeping gold and USD-sensitive pairs in tight focus heading into the week.
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The US Dollar lost ground across the board on Thursday after a series of dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials triggered a shift in market sentiment. The EUR/USD pushed above the 1.1600 level, the GBP/USD approached 1.3450, and the AUD extended gains, all reflecting a broad retreat in risk aversion and renewed demand for higher-yielding currencies. Meanwhile, remarks from China’s Commerce Minister hinted at stabilization in US-China trade relations, further boosting confidence in global economic recovery.
EUR/USD surged above the 1.1600 level on Thursday, supported by a broad decline in risk aversion following dovish comments from several Federal Reserve officials. The softer Fed stance reduced expectations for further tightening, leading to a weakening in the US Dollar. In turn, the euro capitalized on the improved sentiment across financial markets. Traders are now watching upcoming Eurozone inflation figures and further Fedspeak.
Geopolitical Risks: Low, with no fresh Eurozone tensions.
US Economic Data: Softer outlook after dovish Fed signals.
FOMC Outcome: Dovish remarks lowered rate hike bets.
Trade Policy: Stable outlook.
Monetary Policy: Market reassessing the Fed’s tightening bias.
Trend: Bullish short-term.
Resistance: 1.1650
Support: 1.1570
Forecast: May test 1.1650 if momentum holds.
Market Sentiment: Improving risk appetite.
Catalysts: Eurozone HICP release and continued Fed remarks.
GBP/USD rallied close to the 1.3450 level on Thursday, buoyed by improving risk sentiment and a softer US Dollar. The pair benefited from dovish Fed commentary which calmed investor nerves and encouraged flows into the pound. While UK macro data remains mixed, the pair was lifted by broader USD weakness. Traders await the US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for short-term direction.
Geopolitical Risks: Low impact.
US Economic Data: Weak tone following dovish Fed statements.
FOMC Outcome: Fed bias shifts to caution.
Trade Policy: No fresh updates.
Monetary Policy: BoE expected to stay cautious amid mixed UK data.
Trend: Uptrend holding.
Resistance: 1.3470
Support: 1.3400
Forecast: Momentum could lift the pair toward 1.3500.
Market Sentiment: Positive on USD weakness.
Catalysts: UoM Consumer Sentiment, Fed commentary.
AUD/USD advanced modestly on Thursday as the US Dollar softened following dovish comments from Fed officials. The pair gained traction above the 0.6800 handle, reflecting improved risk appetite and optimism over global economic stability. Despite lackluster Australian data earlier in the week, the Aussie benefitted from the shifting Fed narrative. Traders now look ahead to China’s economic developments and US sentiment indicators.
Geopolitical Risks: Low, focus on China’s economic signals.
US Economic Data: Fed dovish tone drives USD lower.
FOMC Outcome: Market rethinks Fed rate path.
Trade Policy: Stable with mild optimism on China.
Monetary Policy: RBA remains data dependent.
Trend: Bullish bias returning.
Resistance: 0.6850
Support: 0.6780
Forecast: Consolidation above 0.6800 likely.
Market Sentiment: Risk-on rebound.
Catalysts: US data, Chinese trade headlines.
USD/CNH edged slightly lower on Thursday, reflecting resilience in the Chinese Yuan amid signs of thawing in US-China trade relations. China’s Commerce Minister highlighted that economic and trade ties between the two nations have weathered many storms, injecting a dose of stability into market expectations. The pair remains range-bound as investors weigh US dollar softness against cautious Chinese optimism.
Geopolitical Risks: Muted on improving rhetoric.
US Economic Data: Weaker after dovish Fed tone.
FOMC Outcome: Cautious outlook keeps USD restrained.
Trade Policy: Reassuring China-US tone.
Monetary Policy: PBOC policy expected to remain accommodative.
Trend: Sideways with mild bearish tilt.
Resistance: 7.1600
Support: 7.1300
Forecast: Mild downside pressure likely to persist.
Market Sentiment: Stabilizing on trade clarity.
Catalysts: Trade remarks, USD momentum.
NZD/USD trades steadily above the 0.5950 level as the US Dollar continues to face pressure from dovish Fedspeak. Investors are gradually moving toward risk-sensitive currencies, pushing the Kiwi higher amid improving sentiment. The pair also benefits from relatively resilient New Zealand data and broader greenback softness. Market focus now turns to US consumer sentiment data for fresh directional cues.
Geopolitical Risks: Low, with no fresh Eurozone tensions.
US Economic Data: Softer outlook after dovish Fed signals.
FOMC Outcome: Dovish remarks lowered rate hike bets.
Trade Policy: Stable outlook.
Monetary Policy: Market reassessing the Fed’s tightening bias.
Trend: Bullish short-term momentum above 0.5950.
Resistance: 0.6000
Support: 0.5920
Market Sentiment: Risk-on tone supports upside potential for NZD.
Catalysts: US Michigan Consumer Sentiment report and further Fed commentary.
Major currency pairs found renewed strength as the Fed’s dovish tone reshaped investor expectations, weighing on the Greenback. EUR/USD and GBP/USD extended upward momentum while the Aussie advanced amid improved market appetite. As attention now turns to upcoming sentiment data from the US and evolving trade dynamics with China, markets remain poised for further volatility.
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The Australian Dollar slid sharply on Thursday as dismal labor market data reinforced expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Risk sentiment remained subdued across Asia-Pacific markets, while traders digested cautious commentary from Japan’s top FX officials and a stronger-than-expected PBOC yuan fix. Meanwhile, the euro drifted lower ahead of key inflation data from the Eurozone, and the New Zealand dollar weakened as market tone turned risk-off. Traders are bracing for upcoming catalysts that could dictate FX direction heading into the weekend.
AUD/USD slips to around 0.6620 following weaker-than-expected Australian labor data. The jobless rate ticked up to 4.2% in June while full-time employment fell sharply, reinforcing market expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may shift toward monetary easing in the coming months. This data-led pullback comes amid broad US Dollar strength and cautious market sentiment.
Geopolitical Risks: Minimal direct influence on AUD today; focus remains on macro data.
US Economic Data: USD remains bid on upbeat US retail sales and industrial production data earlier in the week.
FOMC Outcome: Fed policymakers remain cautious; no immediate signs of dovish pivot, supporting the USD.
Trade Policy: Trade tensions remain subdued; no fresh headlines impacting AUD directly.
Monetary Policy: RBA rate cut bets rise sharply after weak employment report. Money markets now price in a 25 bps cut by November, a shift from prior neutral expectations.
Trend: Bearish short-term trend intact; breakdown from 0.6700.
Resistance: 0.6700, then 0.6755 and 0.6800.
Support: 0.6620, then 0.6580 and 0.6550.
Forecast: AUD/USD may drift toward 0.6620, with a downside extension to 0.6580 if RBA rate-cut expectations intensify.
Market Sentiment: Bearish bias dominates after the weak Australian labor market report increased expectations for RBA easing.
Catalysts: Rising market speculation about an RBA rate cut later this year is weighing on the AUD.
Any surprise improvement or deterioration in upcoming US data could amplify AUD/USD volatility.
Commentary from RBA officials or changes in global risk sentiment may also influence the pair’s direction.
USD/JPY trades at 147.88, near one-month highs, as Japanese authorities express concern over currency volatility. However, yield differentials continue to favor the USD.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited safe-haven flows into yen; geopolitical tension has shifted preference to USD.
US Economic Data: Solid recent US macro figures support Treasury yields and the dollar.
FOMC Outcome: Fed remains hawkish; two cuts still expected in 2025, but not imminent.
Trade Policy: No major trade headlines affecting USD/JPY directly, but global supply chain talk continues to favor dollar safety.
Monetary Policy: BoJ’s ultra-loose policy stance remains a drag on JPY, with Aoki’s verbal remarks doing little to shift outlook.
Trend: Bullish continuation after consolidating above 146.50.
Resistance: 148.00, then 148.75 and 149.10.
Support: 147.40, then 146.90 and 146.20.
Forecast: USD/JPY could test 148.75 if BoJ remains passive and US data stay strong.
Market Sentiment: Bullish; X posts emphasize yen weakness despite verbal concerns.
Catalysts: Japanese CPI due later this week, US Jobless Claims, and Fed speeches
EUR/USD is trading near 1.1610, extending its decline as markets brace for the upcoming Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) release. The pair remains under pressure from a resilient USD and cautious euro sentiment amid monetary divergence.
Geopolitical Risks: No immediate geopolitical tension in the Eurozone, but global unease supports USD safe-haven flows.
US Economic Data: Positive US indicators, including solid housing and labor data, underpin dollar strength ahead of Eurozone inflation prints.
FOMC Outcome:
The Fed’s firm stance, with two projected rate cuts later in the year, contrasts the ECB’s pause, creating downside pressure on EUR.
Trade Policy: No fresh headlines, but concerns over transatlantic trade conditions remain in the background.
Trend: Bearish continuation from last week’s breakdown below 1.1700.
Resistance: 1.1660, then 1.1725 and 1.1800.
Support: 1.1600, followed by 1.1575 and 1.1500.
Forecast: EUR/USD could test the psychological 1.1600 support zone. A weak HICP print may trigger a further drop toward 1.1575.
Market Sentiment: Bearish bias continues across major FX desks; social media notes stress around inflation impact on ECB credibility.
Catalysts: Eurozone HICP data, US housing starts, and ECB commentary through the week.
NZD/USD trades at 0.5938, slipping below the 0.5950 threshold as risk sentiment fades and the greenback remains broadly supported. The pair continues to reflect investor caution amid mixed global data and a soft commodity outlook.
Geopolitical Risks: No direct impact on NZD, but risk-off flows due to broader geopolitical unease support USD demand.
US Economic Data: Robust US retail and housing data bolster the dollar, contributing to Kiwi weakness.
FOMC Outcome:
Hawkish Fed guidance, with delayed rate cuts, keeps USD buoyant and pressures NZD.
Trade Policy: China-related trade concerns indirectly impact NZD due to its strong trade ties with Beijing.
Monetary Policy: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintains a neutral stance; markets are pricing in a possible rate cut if economic data weakens further.
Trend: Bearish breakdown below 0.5950 confirms downside pressure.
Resistance: 0.5955, followed by 0.6000 and 0.6040.
Support: 0.5920, then 0.5880 and 0.5850.
Forecast: A sustained drop below 0.5920 could trigger a retest of 0.5880. Upside recovery remains limited unless risk sentiment improves.
Market Sentiment: Bearish tone dominates Kiwi sentiment; social platforms note growing speculation around RBNZ easing.
Catalysts: China economic data, New Zealand services PMI, and upcoming US macro releases.
USD/CNY hovers around 7.1480 in offshore trade after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the daily reference rate at 7.1461 — a stronger-than-expected fix versus the previous 7.1526. The move reflects ongoing official efforts to stabilize the yuan amid capital outflow risks and uneven economic momentum.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited immediate impact; investors are focused on domestic Chinese fundamentals and capital flow controls.
US Economic Data: Strong USD performance continues to influence USD/CNY direction, despite PBOC’s managed fix.
FOMC Outcome:
The Fed’s hawkish outlook underpins USD strength, challenging China’s efforts to cap yuan weakness.
Trade Policy: No new tariff headlines, but US-China trade sentiment remains fragile and sensitive to political developments.
Monetary Policy: PBOC’s steady LPR and tighter fix signal intent to curb depreciation, while US-China policy divergence sustains wide interest rate gaps.
Trend:Rangebound with upside bias, capped by PBOC fix levels.
Resistance: 7.1520, then 7.1600 and 7.1800.
Support: 7.1380, then 7.1285 and 7.1150.
Market Sentiment: Mixed; traders are cautious about betting against PBOC, but offshore markets remain biased toward a weaker yuan.
Catalysts: US data surprises, China’s next LPR announcement, potential policy easing signals from Beijing.
In summary, today’s session was marked by a decisive shift in sentiment against the Aussie as weak employment data heightened RBA rate cut bets. Japanese authorities voiced concerns over speculative FX movements, which added to the cautious tone in yen trading. Meanwhile, the euro and kiwi softened amid broader risk aversion and anticipation of upcoming economic data. The PBOC’s stronger yuan fixing signaled some intent to stabilize the currency, yet markets remained wary. As key data looms, traders remain alert to central bank cues and macroeconomic signals to guide the next move.
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On July 16, 2025, crude oil (WTI) drifts below the $66.00 mark as global supply concerns ease following a tempered stance from the White House regarding its 50-day deadline for Russia. The pullback comes after a period of elevated prices driven by geopolitical risk, but fading urgency is softening the outlook. Meanwhile, silver (XAG/USD) pushes toward $38.00, supported by safe-haven flows. NZD/USD trades higher above 0.5950 as sentiment improves in Asia-Pacific markets, with the PBOC maintaining currency stability at 7.1526. Investors are also focused on the UK’s CPI data and the upcoming US PPI report for further macro direction.
Silver (XAG/USD) is climbing toward $38.00, building on recent gains as global investors seek safe-haven assets amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and cautious sentiment ahead of key inflation data. The metal continues to benefit from macro instability, with the US Dollar showing mixed performance and real yields remaining subdued.
Geopolitical Risks: Global tensions persist despite the easing of some immediate trade concerns. Safe-haven demand remains elevated, fueling silver’s rally.
US Economic Data: Market participants await the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which could influence real yield expectations and impact precious metals.
FOMC Outcome: Recent Fed minutes indicate cautious optimism but no rush to cut rates aggressively. Uncertainty keeps support intact for non-yielding assets like silver.
Trade Policy: Lingering uncertainty surrounding global tariffs and cross-border frictions keeps risk aversion elevated, indirectly boosting silver’s appeal.
Monetary Policy: While expectations for Fed rate cuts have moderated, dovish undertones continue to support metals amid inflation and policy uncertainty.
Trend: Bullish continuation; silver extends rebound from $36.00 breakout zone.
Resistance: $37.60, then $38.00 and $38.35.
Support: $37.00, followed by $36.50 and $36.00.
Forecast: Silver may test $38.00 in the near term if US inflation data comes in softer; downside risk limited above $36.50.
Market Sentiment: Bullish bias remains intact, driven by ongoing macro uncertainty and technical strength.
Catalysts: US PPI release, Fed commentary, global risk tone, and bond market movements.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading below $66.00, retreating from recent highs as geopolitical supply risks begin to subside. Market reaction to Trump’s softened 50-day ultimatum to Russia has eased immediate fears of supply disruption, prompting traders to take profit after last week’s surge.
Geopolitical Risks: The tone around Trump’s Russia deadline has moderated, reducing the likelihood of near-term supply shocks and calming oil markets.
US Economic Data: Attention shifts to US PPI data for signs of inflationary trends, which could influence energy demand expectations and interest rate outlooks.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s cautious stance and delayed rate cuts could weigh on growth outlook, subtly dampening oil demand expectations.
Trade Policy: Uncertainty remains around broader trade tensions, particularly between the US and China, though direct oil trade implications are limited for now.
Monetary Policy: Stable Fed positioning and relatively strong USD have limited the upside for crude, especially as risk appetite fluctuates.
Trend: Short-term bearish; retreat from $67.30 confirms corrective pressure.
Resistance: $66.75, then $67.30 and $68.50.
Support: $65.00, then $64.20 and $63.00.
Forecast: WTI may range between $64.20–$66.75. A dovish inflation surprise or renewed geopolitical flare-up could spark another upside test.
Market Sentiment: Neutral to mildly bearish as supply worries ease and traders await further macro cues.
Catalysts: Trump’s future Russia stance, US inflation data (PPI), OPEC+ commentary, and weekly inventory reports.
NZD/USD is trading above 0.5950, maintaining bullish traction as investors digest positive risk sentiment ahead of the US PPI release. The pair benefits from a softer USD and improved risk appetite, supported in part by China’s stable GDP performance and ongoing expectations for a patient Fed.
Geopolitical Risks: Geopolitical risks remain in the background, but easing trade and supply fears support broader market stability.
US Economic Data: Investors are focused on the upcoming US Producer Price Index report, which could influence Fed rate expectations and USD performance.
FOMC Outcome:
The Fed remains cautious; the absence of hawkish surprises keeps pressure on the dollar and supports risk-linked currencies like the Kiwi.
Trade Policy: Global trade tensions are easing for now, aiding risk sentiment and demand for commodity-linked currencies such as NZD.
Trend: Mild bullish recovery, with higher lows forming since 0.5900.
Resistance: 0.5975, then 0.6000 and 0.6030.
Support: 0.5925, then 0.5900 and 0.5860.
Forecast: NZD/USD could challenge 0.6000 if the US PPI print comes in soft. Downside risks limited above 0.5900.
Market Sentiment: Bullish tilt as risk sentiment improves and USD weakens modestly.
Catalysts: US PPI, Chinese trade balance follow-up, and Fed commentary.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1526 on July 16, 2025, slightly higher than the previous fix of 7.1498. The move signals the central bank’s cautious stance amid global uncertainty and domestic growth challenges, as Beijing maintains tight control over the yuan’s daily midpoint to stabilize trade competitiveness.
Geopolitical Risks: Renewed global uncertainties, including energy supply and trade issues, keep the yuan in focus. However, tensions remain manageable for now.
US Economic Data: A stronger US dollar ahead of the PPI release places mild pressure on the yuan, though the PBOC fix aims to counter excess volatility.
FOMC Outcome:
The Fed’s cautious tone provides room for emerging market currencies to stabilize. China’s central bank remains committed to stability rather than easing aggressively.
Trade Policy: With Trump’s latest tariff headlines on pause, China focuses more on economic data and currency stability.
Monetary Policy: The PBOC’s steady reference rate indicates a neutral monetary stance. No rate cuts signal confidence in current liquidity levels.
Trend: Slight upward bias in USD/CNY due to cautious yuan guidance.
Resistance: 7.1650, then 7.1800 and 7.2000.
Support: 7.1450, then 7.1300 and 7.1200.
Forecast: USD/CNY may hold within a narrow band (7.1450–7.1650) as the PBOC balances economic stability and trade competitiveness.
Market Sentiment: Neutral to cautious; investors interpret the PBOC fix as a steady hand amid inflation and trade questions.
Catalysts: Chinese retail sales and industrial output data, US PPI, Fed commentary, and potential global trade rhetoric.
GBP/USD is holding firm around 1.2950, trading in a tight range as investors await the UK CPI release due mid-week. The British Pound remains supported by cautious optimism that inflation will remain above the BoE’s 2% target, delaying potential rate cuts. Risk appetite and USD softness also help stabilize the pair.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited direct impact on GBP, though global energy prices and trade headlines may indirectly influence inflation expectations.
US Economic Data: Traders await the US PPI print, which may move the dollar and shift GBP/USD dynamics.
FOMC Outcome:
A less aggressive Fed tone supports GBP/USD; no rate hike surprises bolster broader FX stability.
Trade Policy: No major UK-EU or UK-US trade headlines at the moment, allowing GBP to focus on domestic data.
Monetary Policy: Markets are watching if UK CPI supports or undermines the BoE’s cautious rate cut stance. Inflation above 2.0% could strengthen GBP short-term.
Trend:Neutral to mildly bullish consolidation.
Resistance: 1.2975, then 1.3000 and 1.3050.
Support: 1.2910, followed by 1.2860 and 1.2800.
Market Sentiment: Cautious optimism; GBP viewed as data-sensitive with limited downside unless CPI significantly disappoints.
Catalysts: UK CPI (YoY expected at 2.0%), US PPI, Fed commentary, and broader risk appetite.
WTI’s decline signals a shift in energy market sentiment as traders weigh the real impact of political threats versus supply fundamentals. Silver’s rise and stable commodity-linked currencies reflect a cautiously optimistic tone. With inflation data due from both the US and UK, markets are likely to remain sensitive to macro headlines and central bank cues. The path ahead hinges on how policymakers respond to price pressures and geopolitical developments in the coming days.
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On July 15, 2025, China’s economy delivers an upside surprise, growing 5.2% YoY in Q2 — slightly above the 5.1% consensus. The better-than-expected data boosts risk sentiment across Asia-Pacific markets. The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) edge higher, both benefiting from stronger demand outlooks tied to China’s recovery. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen weakens as 10-year government bond yields in Japan surge to their highest since 2008, signaling policy divergence. Although Gold edges up near $3,350 ahead of the U.S. CPI release, today’s spotlight is on China’s ripple effects across global assets.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades near $3,348, gaining traction as investors brace for the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due later today. A softer inflation print could strengthen expectations of Fed rate cuts later in the year, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Broader market sentiment is also supported by upbeat Chinese GDP figures, though the dollar remains stable for now.
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing tariff rhetoric between the U.S. and major trade partners sustains mild safe-haven demand, though immediate geopolitical risks remain muted.
US Economic Data: Today’s U.S. CPI release is a critical risk event. A softer inflation print could reduce Fed tightening pressure and lift gold prices.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed remains in wait-and-see mode, but market bets continue to tilt toward rate cuts in late 2025, which supports non-yielding assets.
Trade Policy: Rising tariff concerns between the U.S., EU, and Canada have renewed safe-haven interest in gold as investors hedge policy uncertainty.
Monetary Policy: Global central banks are diverging in policy paths, but the Fed’s leaning toward easing keeps U.S. real yields suppressed — a bullish factor for gold.
Trend: Mildly bullish, with price consolidating just below resistance.
Resistance: $3,355 (immediate), followed by $3,375 and $3,400.
Support: $3,330, $3,315, and $3,290.
Forecast: Gold may range between $3,330–$3,375 ahead of CPI. A soft inflation print could trigger a breakout above $3,375 toward $3,400.
Market Sentiment: Neutral to bullish. Traders are cautious but optimistic on gold’s upside if inflation data supports a dovish Fed trajectory.
Catalysts: U.S. CPI data, Fed speakers, Treasury yield movement, global trade tensions, and Middle East developments.
China’s economy expanded by 5.2% YoY in the second quarter of 2025, slightly beating expectations of 5.1%. The growth was driven by stronger industrial output and resilient consumer spending, providing a boost to risk sentiment across Asia-Pacific currencies and commodities. This positive surprise helped offset ongoing concerns over global trade tensions, especially ahead of the U.S. CPI release.
Geopolitical Risks: While U.S.-China relations remain cautious, today’s data deflects immediate concerns. Renewed U.S. tariffs on other partners have not directly impacted China’s Q2 growth.
US Economic Data: Traders are watching how U.S. CPI may influence global growth expectations and monetary policy divergence, with potential spillovers to China-sensitive assets.
FOMC Outcome: A dovish Fed outlook supports demand for emerging market assets, including China-linked trades like AUD, NZD, and copper.
Trade Policy: With Trump’s recent tariff threats focused on Canada and the EU, markets have temporarily shifted focus away from U.S.-China tensions, allowing today’s GDP to shine through.
Monetary Policy: The PBoC continues to strike a balance — keeping liquidity steady while avoiding aggressive easing. This stability supports broader investor confidence.
Trend: Positive bias as risk currencies respond to growth signals.
Resistance: AUD/USD – 0.6820, NZD/USD – 0.6025, Copper – $5.60.
Support: AUD/USD – 0.6770, NZD/USD – 0.5950, Copper – $5.42.
Forecast: China’s data may keep AUD, NZD, and industrial metals supported unless U.S. CPI drastically alters risk appetite.
Market Sentiment: Risk-on tilt as China’s data beat forecasts; regional currencies and commodities favored over USD.
Catalysts: U.S. CPI release, Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales (due later this week), updates on U.S.-China trade rhetoric.
The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) inches higher to 0.6800 as investors digest China’s stronger-than-expected GDP data for Q2 2025. The risk-sensitive Aussie benefits from upbeat sentiment tied to China’s economic recovery and a weaker U.S. Dollar ahead of today’s CPI release. Gains remain modest as markets remain cautious over global trade tensions and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) inflation stance.
Geopolitical Risks: Easing immediate trade conflict concerns with China supports AUD, though broader U.S. tariff rhetoric continues to keep risk sentiment fragile.
US Economic Data: Focus is now on the upcoming CPI report. A cooler inflation print could pressure the USD and further lift the AUD.
FOMC Outcome:
Expectations of delayed Fed cuts have limited AUD’s rally. However, dovish signals could renew upside momentum.
Trade Policy: Trump’s fresh tariff actions do not directly impact Australia, but global trade uncertainty keeps investors guarded.
Trend: Mild bullish bias with room for upside on sustained risk-on tone.
Resistance: 0.6820, followed by 0.6855 and 0.6900.
Support: 0.6770, then 0.6725 and 0.6690.
Forecast: AUD/USD may extend toward 0.6850 if U.S. CPI data supports a dovish Fed. A hot CPI could reverse gains toward 0.6750.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously optimistic. Investors see AUD as a proxy for China’s growth outlook and risk sentiment.
Catalysts: U.S. CPI release, Chinese Industrial Production, Fed commentary, RBA rate outlook.
NZD/USD holds positive ground around 0.5960, supported by China’s better-than-expected Q2 GDP report and the associated boost in regional risk appetite. As a commodity-linked currency with strong trade ties to China, the Kiwi dollar benefits from optimism around Asia-Pacific growth. However, caution prevails ahead of the U.S. CPI release and concerns over escalating global trade tensions.
Geopolitical Risks: Global trade friction remains a concern, but the lack of direct NZ-related tensions allows room for Kiwi strength.
US Economic Data: Traders await CPI data for insight into Fed’s next move; a dovish surprise could further lift NZD/USD.
FOMC Outcome:
Fed’s cautious tone and delay in rate cuts have capped Kiwi gains, though dovish hints may provide renewed upside.
Trade Policy: Trump’s focus on Canadian and European tariffs helps insulate the NZD for now, but broader uncertainty keeps traders wary.
Monetary Policy: RBNZ maintains a data-dependent stance; better Chinese data may ease pressure for near-term policy support.
Trend: Modestly bullish with room for continuation if U.S. inflation is soft.
Resistance: 0.5980, followed by 0.6020 and 0.6055.
Support: 0.5920, then 0.5885 and 0.5850.
Forecast: NZD/USD may retest 0.6000+ if risk-on sentiment persists. A strong U.S. CPI print could push back toward 0.5900 support.
Market Sentiment: Neutral to bullish; traders see upside as long as China data stays solid and the Fed remains patient.
Catalysts: U.S. CPI data, China’s industrial data, RBNZ policy signals, global risk tone.
USD/JPY trades near 147.00, holding gains as Japanese 10-year government bond yields climb to their highest level since 2008. The surge in yields reflects investor expectations of eventual policy normalization from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), although rising U.S. yields and safe-haven flows into the dollar continue to keep the yen under pressure. The broader narrative remains one of yield divergence favoring the USD.
Geopolitical Risks: Global tariff tensions and regional uncertainty keep safe-haven demand alive, but USD is currently favored over JPY due to yield dynamics.
US Economic Data: Strong inflation data or hawkish Fed commentary could further strengthen the USD against JPY.
FOMC Outcome:
The Fed’s cautious tone and higher-for-longer rate stance support USD strength, contributing to yen weakness.
Trade Policy: The reemergence of U.S. tariffs on major trading partners elevates USD demand and drives JPY lower despite local bond market dynamics.
Monetary Policy: BoJ’s resistance to aggressive tightening continues to widen the yield spread with the U.S., keeping JPY on the defensive.
Trend:Bullish continuation above 146.50 key support.
Resistance: 147.35, then 148.00 and 148.50.
Support: 146.20, then 145.50 and 144.80.
Market Sentiment: Bullish for USD/JPY, as traders prefer the greenback for carry trades amid diverging central bank outlooks.
Catalysts: U.S. CPI, Fed minutes, Japan bond market commentary, and risk appetite swings.
China’s stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth at 5.2% YoY lifted risk sentiment and commodity-linked currencies on July 15, 2025. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars gained modestly as markets priced in sustained demand from Asia’s largest economy. Japan’s 10-year bond yields surged to their highest levels since 2008, weighing on the Yen amid expectations of BoJ tightening. Meanwhile, Gold approached $3,350 ahead of the highly anticipated U.S. CPI print, which could shape near-term Fed expectations. Investors now turn their attention to U.S. inflation data and upcoming central bank commentary to guide the next wave of market direction.
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On July 14, 2025, global markets pivot back toward risk aversion as U.S. President Donald Trump renews tariff threats, targeting both the European Union and Canada. Gold (XAU/USD) climbs above $3,350, recovering its shine amid rising geopolitical uncertainty. The U.S. Dollar shows mixed reactions — EUR/USD pushes toward 1.1700 while NZD/USD drops near 0.6000 on tariff spillovers and looming Chinese trade data. GBP/USD remains vulnerable around 1.3500 amid Brexit silence and USD strength. USD/CAD extends higher toward 1.3700, pressured by direct trade rhetoric from Washington. Traders now shift focus to U.S. retail sales and China’s external sector updates.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades above $3,350, gaining momentum as renewed trade tensions revive safe-haven flows. Traders rushed to hedge geopolitical risk after U.S. President Trump reignited tariff threats on both Europe and Canada. The yellow metal recovered from recent lows, reflecting market caution despite firm U.S. data.
Geopolitical Risks: Trump’s tariff threats against the EU and Canada trigger global risk aversion, boosting gold’s appeal.
US Economic Data: Mixed signals from jobless claims and inflation data contribute to USD uncertainty, favoring gold.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s cautious stance supports yield-sensitive assets like gold as rate cuts remain on the table.
Trade Policy: Renewed tariff rhetoric shifts capital into safe havens like gold and U.S. Treasuries.
Monetary Policy: Divergent global central bank outlooks continue to support non-yielding gold in risk-off settings.
Trend: Short-term bullish recovery above $3,350.
Resistance: $3,370, followed by $3,400 and $3,434.
Support: $3,332, then $3,300 and $3,275.
Forecast: Gold could extend toward $3,370–$3,400 if geopolitical uncertainty persists; a pullback below $3,332 would signal consolidation.
Market Sentiment: Bullish bias fueled by tariff headlines and demand for hedges.
Catalysts: U.S. retail sales, Fed speakers, and fresh trade headlines involving the EU and Canada.
GBP/USD hovers around 1.3500, struggling to recover as the British Pound remains pressured by a resilient U.S. Dollar and lack of fresh UK drivers. Despite holding ground near recent lows, the pair appears vulnerable to renewed selling, particularly as global risk sentiment remains fragile amid tariff-related concerns.
Geopolitical Risks: Global trade tensions weigh on broader risk appetite, indirectly affecting GBP via USD strength.
US Economic Data: Solid U.S. data, including inflation and labor market resilience, continues to support the greenback.
UK Economic Outlook: With limited domestic catalysts and Brexit-related silence, the Pound lacks the fuel for a breakout.
Trade Policy: U.S. tariff rhetoric boosts USD demand, keeping pressure on GBP/USD despite mild equity stability.
Monetary Policy: Bank of England’s cautious stance offers little support, while Fed’s hawkish tilt keeps GBP on the defensive.
Trend: Bearish to neutral; consolidation after steep drop.
Resistance: 1.3530, then 1.3600 and 1.3665.
Support: 1.3460, followed by 1.3420 and 1.3350.
Forecast: GBP/USD may remain rangebound unless a shift in global sentiment or strong UK data sparks momentum.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish as risk flows favor the USD.
Catalysts: U.K. GDP updates, U.S. retail sales, and tariff-related headlines involving the EU.
NZD/USD softens near the 0.6000 level, under pressure from resurging trade war fears and cautious sentiment ahead of China’s trade balance data. The Kiwi’s earlier gains faded as traders weighed the implications of global tariffs on Asia-Pacific exports, particularly given New Zealand’s strong trade links with China.
Geopolitical Risks: U.S. tariff threats intensify global uncertainty, indirectly impacting export-driven economies like New Zealand.
US Economic Data: Broad USD strength from robust U.S. metrics drags NZD lower, especially as traders brace for inflation data.
China’s Trade Balance: Markets await June’s Chinese trade report, a key gauge for NZD given New Zealand’s deep economic ties with Beijing.
Trade Policy: Worsening trade rhetoric continues to spook markets, reducing risk appetite and hurting high-beta currencies.
Trend: Bearish short-term bias; momentum weakening near key support.
Resistance: 0.6055, then 0.6100 and 0.6160.
Support: 0.5980, then 0.5950 and 0.5900.
Forecast: A daily close below 0.5980 could signal further downside, especially if Chinese trade data disappoints.
Market Sentiment: Bearish; tariff tensions weigh heavily on commodity and trade-linked currencies.
Catalysts: Chinese trade data, U.S. CPI release, and any easing or escalation of Trump’s tariff threats.
EUR/USD trades near 1.1700, recovering modestly as the U.S. Dollar retreats slightly in response to renewed tariff tensions with the European Union. The Euro benefits from short-term USD softness but remains capped by ongoing uncertainty surrounding the impact of proposed trade policies.
Geopolitical Risks: Trump’s fresh tariff threats targeting the EU stoke market volatility, initially pressuring the Euro before USD weakness takes hold.
US Economic Data: Mixed U.S. data keeps the Dollar volatile, offering EUR/USD a short-term lift amid shifting Fed expectations.
Eurozone Outlook: The bloc’s recent stability contrasts with U.S. trade friction, helping the Euro find temporary footing.
Trade Policy: The threat of escalating U.S.-EU tariffs could become a medium-term headwind if negotiations falter.
Monetary Policy: ECB’s cautious stance remains a weight, though less so than the uncertainty surrounding Fed rate path.
Trend: Cautious rebound within short-term range.
Resistance: 1.1730, then 1.1765 and 1.1800.
Support: 1.1670, followed by 1.1625 and 1.1600.
Forecast: EUR/USD may attempt a move toward 1.1730–1.1765 if USD softness persists; failure to hold 1.1670 may invite selling.
Market Sentiment: Mixed; cautious optimism around Eurozone resilience, tempered by tariff concerns.
Catalysts: U.S.-EU trade negotiations, U.S. inflation figures, and Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment.
USD/CAD holds firm near 1.3700, supported by renewed U.S. tariff threats targeting Canada. The pair sustains bullish momentum as risk sentiment falters and oil prices struggle to lift the Loonie. With trade tensions rising and WTI crude under pressure, USD/CAD remains elevated heading into the week’s key data releases.
Geopolitical Risks: Trump’s 35% tariff announcement on Canadian imports adds direct pressure to the Canadian Dollar, widening the trade gap.
US Economic Data: Strong U.S. metrics continue to support the greenback, enhancing USD/CAD upside potential.
Canadian Outlook: Weaker oil and trade pressure from the U.S. increase downside risks for CAD, despite otherwise steady domestic fundamentals.
Trade Policy: Tariff tensions are front and center, driving the pair higher with markets bracing for retaliation or renegotiation.
Monetary Policy: BoC remains cautious, while the Fed holds a hawkish tone—yield spreads continue to favor the USD.
Trend:Bullish continuation, nearing breakout levels.
Resistance: 1.3725, then 1.3750 and 1.3790.
Support: 1.3675, followed by 1.3620 and 1.3580.
Market Sentiment: Bullish for USD/CAD amid heightened trade tensions and softening crude oil.
Catalysts: U.S. Retail Sales, Canada CPI, crude oil trends, and official responses to Trump’s tariff measures.
Markets entered the week on edge, with gold leading the safe-haven charge past $3,350 as global trade tensions intensified. The U.S. Dollar stayed firm overall, with EUR/USD and USD/CAD reflecting tariff-sensitive flows. GBP/USD and NZD/USD remain weighed by domestic and external pressures. Traders now await major data prints — including U.S. retail sales and Chinese trade figures — alongside any escalation or resolution in Trump’s tariff campaign. Volatility remains elevated as policy and politics dominate sentiment.
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On July 11, 2025, global markets reeled after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a steep 35% tariff on Canadian imports, sparking renewed trade tensions and lifting the U.S. Dollar. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) pushed above 97.50 as traders sought safety in the greenback. USD/CAD surged toward 1.3700, reflecting immediate pressure on the Canadian Dollar. Meanwhile, EUR/USD slipped below 1.1700 ahead of a potential U.S.-EU tariff deal, and NZD/USD retreated to the 0.6000 handle amid risk-off sentiment. The tariff shock dampened risk appetite globally and repositioned flows across major FX pairs. Markets now await U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data and European Commission responses to gauge the next direction.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) trades above 97.50, climbing steadily following President Trump’s announcement of a 35% tariff on imports from Canada. The move heightened trade tensions and fueled demand for the greenback as a defensive hedge. With markets pricing in retaliatory risks and broader economic consequences, the DXY is holding firm near multi-week highs.
Geopolitical Risks: Fresh U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports and looming trade discussions with the EU have spurred global risk aversion, enhancing USD appeal.
US Economic Data: Traders await Initial Jobless Claims for signals on labor market resilience. Strong data could reinforce dollar strength.
FOMC Outcome: Fed remains cautious but has not ruled out rate cuts later in the year. Market focus stays on inflation and employment figures.
Trade Policy: Trump’s aggressive stance on tariffs injects policy uncertainty, which typically favors the USD as a reserve currency.
Monetary Policy: Rate differentials continue to support the dollar amid relatively hawkish Fed expectations versus global peers.
Trend: Bullish continuation above 97.50, nearing short-term breakout zone.
Resistance: 97.85, followed by 98.20 and 98.50.
Support: 97.30, then 96.90 and 96.50.
Forecast: If DXY holds above 97.50, a move toward 98.20 is likely. A break below 97.30 may stall momentum and reintroduce rangebound conditions.
Market Sentiment: Bullish. Risk-off flows and trade policy uncertainty have triggered renewed interest in the USD.
Catalysts: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Eurozone industrial production, Canadian response to tariffs, and upcoming Fed commentary.
EUR/USD trades just below 1.1700, facing downside pressure as the U.S. Dollar strengthens on renewed trade tensions. The pair lost momentum amid growing expectations of a potential tariff deal between the U.S. and EU, with investors remaining cautious ahead of upcoming economic releases and official responses from Brussels.
Geopolitical Risks: Tariff uncertainty between the U.S. and EU weighs on the euro, with traders wary of possible retaliatory actions from European leaders.
US Economic Data: Strong U.S. data continues to support the dollar, overshadowing any short-term EUR resilience.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s hawkish tone underpins USD strength, narrowing the room for EUR/USD recovery.
Trade Policy: The euro faces pressure as the U.S. broadens its tariff strategy, now eyeing potential levies on EU goods.
Monetary Policy: Divergence in central bank tone (hawkish Fed vs. dovish ECB) continues to cap euro strength.
Trend: Bearish consolidation below key psychological support.
Resistance: 1.1720, then 1.1755 and 1.1790.
Support: 1.1675, followed by 1.1640 and 1.1600.
Forecast: Continued pressure below 1.1700 could expose 1.1640. A bounce above 1.1720 may spark limited upside toward 1.1755.
Market Sentiment: Bearish. Traders are favoring USD amid trade concerns and expect the euro to remain vulnerable.
Catalysts: U.S. Jobless Claims, ECB commentary, U.S.-EU trade headlines, and inflation data from both regions.
USD/CAD trades just below 1.3700, rallying sharply after President Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports. The move sent shockwaves through the Canadian economy, with investors pricing in negative trade implications. The loonie weakened despite stable oil prices, as tariff-driven uncertainty overshadowed other domestic fundamentals.
Geopolitical Risks: Direct trade friction with the U.S. leaves Canada vulnerable, prompting USD/CAD upside.
US Economic Data: Robust U.S. labor data supports greenback demand, pushing the pair higher.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s policy consistency strengthens USD flows relative to CAD amid risk-off positioning.
Trade Policy: Trump’s 35% tariff announcement marks a severe shift in U.S.-Canada trade relations, fueling CAD sell-off.
Trend: Bullish breakout from previous consolidation.
Resistance: 1.3725, then 1.3750 and 1.3800.
Support: 1.3665, then 1.3620 and 1.3580.
Forecast: A sustained break above 1.3700 may drive further gains toward 1.3750; short-term pullbacks remain supported near 1.3665.
Market Sentiment: Bullish bias persists as traders position for prolonged trade fallout.
Catalysts: Canadian GDP outlook, retaliatory tariff announcements, U.S. economic releases, and oil price volatility.
NZD/USD trades slightly above 0.6000 but shows signs of weakness as rising trade tensions dent risk appetite. The pair has come under pressure amid renewed fears of global tariff wars, with markets reacting to Trump’s latest import levies. Despite a weaker USD environment, the kiwi remains subdued due to its sensitivity to global trade dynamics and soft local data.
Geopolitical Risks: Escalating trade tensions globally impact high-beta currencies like the NZD; safe-haven demand limits kiwi upside.
US Economic Data: Strong U.S. fundamentals keep the USD resilient, challenging kiwi recovery.
FOMC Outcome: No major surprises from the Fed, but rate differentials remain unfavorable for NZD.
Trade Policy: Concerns over a broadening tariff war reduce risk sentiment and cap commodity-linked currency demand.
Monetary Policy: RBNZ remains cautious; traders expect prolonged dovish tone amid external shocks.
Trend: Bearish bias as the pair fails to sustain momentum above 0.6050.
Resistance: 0.6045, then 0.6080 and 0.6120.
Support: 0.5985, followed by 0.5960 and 0.5920.
Forecast: A drop below 0.5985 may open the path toward 0.5960; limited upside expected unless global risk tone improves.
Market Sentiment: Bearish to neutral as markets avoid risk-heavy assets amid trade policy uncertainty.
Catalysts: U.S. data prints, NZ inflation outlook, China’s trade figures, and tariff-related headlines.
USD/JPY trades near 147.00, regaining upward momentum as the U.S. Dollar strengthens broadly amid escalating tariff tensions. The Japanese Yen remains under pressure due to persistent policy divergence and diminished demand for traditional safe havens. Despite a brief intraday recovery, the yen quickly lost ground as USD strength reasserted dominance.
Geopolitical Risks: Trade tensions are boosting USD demand over JPY, reversing typical safe-haven flows amid policy divergence.
US Economic Data: Solid U.S. data, including labor figures and inflation expectations, continue to support the greenback’s resilience.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s cautious stance, while leaving room for rate cuts, remains more hawkish than the BoJ’s inaction — favoring USD/JPY bulls.
Trade Policy: Trump’s new tariffs on Canadian imports and potential EU levies are fueling USD gains and keeping JPY on the defensive.
Monetary Policy: With the BoJ holding rates ultra-low and signaling no urgency to tighten, the widening yield gap supports further yen depreciation.
Trend:Bullish recovery, rebounding from earlier dips.
Resistance: 147.20, then 147.75 and 148.50.
Support: 146.40, followed by 145.90 and 145.20.
Market Sentiment: Bullish bias for USD/JPY as broader dollar strength overshadows yen stability.
Catalysts: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, global risk sentiment, Japanese trade data, and yield spread dynamics.
The U.S. Dollar surged across the board as Trump’s tariff move reignited global trade tensions. USD/CAD jumped near 1.3700, NZD/USD weakened toward 0.6000, and EUR/USD remained under pressure below 1.1700. With trade talks in focus and data releases ahead, traders are bracing for more volatility. As risk sentiment wavers, the greenback may continue to dominate near term flows, while affected currencies like the loonie and kiwi may remain vulnerable.
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On July 10, 2025, Silver (XAG/USD) extends gains near $36.50, as traders seek shelter amid growing macro uncertainty and revived global risk aversion. Safe-haven demand lifted precious metals and the Japanese Yen earlier in the session, though JPY later gave up gains on reduced BoJ rate hike bets. The US Dollar continues to weaken across the board, supporting high-beta currencies like the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar. Meanwhile, EUR/JPY pulls back from yearly highs as broader sentiment softens. All eyes now turn to the upcoming US Initial Jobless Claims report for clues on labor market strength and Fed policy direction.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades near $36.50, extending its safe-haven-driven rally as global uncertainty resurfaces. Renewed trade tensions and weaker US Dollar flows have lifted demand for precious metals, with silver outperforming amid rising geopolitical and economic risks. The metal now eyes the $37.00 psychological barrier, supported by strong inflows and risk-averse positioning.
Geopolitical Risks: Global uncertainty tied to tariff concerns and soft macro data revives interest in safe-haven assets like silver.
US Economic Data: Anticipation of US Initial Jobless Claims adds caution to the market; weaker labor data could further depress the USD, boosting silver.
FOMC Outcome: Traders expect a cautious tone from the Fed amid mixed inflation and labor signals, which may reduce pressure on metals.
Trade Policy: Renewed US tariff threats, particularly targeting major trading partners, have stirred risk-off flows that benefit silver.
Monetary Policy: Slowing global rate hike momentum enhances silver’s appeal as a non-yielding hedge asset.
Trend: Bullish momentum accelerating after breaking above $36.00.
Resistance: $36.70, then $37.00 and $37.30.
Support: $36.10, followed by $35.70 and $35.30.
Forecast: Silver may challenge $37.00 in the short term if risk sentiment deteriorates. A break below $36.10 could signal consolidation before further upside.
Market Sentiment: Bullish. Traders on X point to increased ETF inflows and macro hedge positioning.
Catalysts: US Jobless Claims, Fed speakers, geopolitical updates, and any acceleration in inflation or trade tension headlines.
AUD/USD trades near 0.6865, holding firm as the US Dollar weakens amid persistent trade-related tensions. The Australian Dollar remains supported by improved risk sentiment and lingering inflation concerns. Despite mixed signals from China’s economy, the Aussie benefits from its commodity-linked profile and a softer greenback as traders shift away from the USD ahead of key labor data.
Geopolitical Risks: Renewed tariff concerns and macro uncertainty have lifted risk-sensitive currencies like AUD, especially with safe-haven demand pressuring USD.
US Economic Data: Traders await the US Initial Jobless Claims report, which could sway USD direction and influence AUD’s performance.
FOMC Outcome: A cautious Fed outlook, combined with softening US inflation data, reduces USD appeal and indirectly supports AUD.
Trade Policy: Trump’s aggressive tariff stance and trade war rhetoric inject volatility into global markets, affecting AUD through its exposure to Asia-Pacific trade.
Monetary Policy: The RBA remains on hold, while the Fed’s policy expectations are softening, reducing rate divergence and favoring the Aussie.
Trend: Bullish bias above key support levels.
Resistance: 0.6885, then 0.6920 and 0.6950.
Support: 0.6830, followed by 0.6800 and 0.6770.
Forecast: AUD/USD could test 0.6920 if risk sentiment improves and the USD remains weak. A break below 0.6830 would suggest near-term consolidation.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bullish. Traders favor high-beta currencies while USD stalls on policy and trade uncertainty.
Catalysts: US Jobless Claims, China economic indicators, RBA minutes, and Fed commentary.
USD/JPY trades near 146.30 after paring earlier losses. The Japanese Yen briefly strengthened on safe-haven demand amid renewed trade concerns, but gains were capped as reduced expectations for Bank of Japan rate hikes weighed on the currency. The US Dollar’s overall weakness supports downside pressure on the pair, but diverging monetary policy expectations continue to limit JPY upside.
Geopolitical Risks: Heightened trade tensions initially boosted JPY, but follow-through was limited by dovish BoJ expectations.
US Economic Data: Eyes are on US Initial Jobless Claims. A soft print could weigh on USD and reignite downward pressure on USD/JPY.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s cautious stance continues to offer yield support to USD, capping yen strength despite risk flows.
Trade Policy: Trump’s renewed tariff threats spark risk-off sentiment that supports JPY, although not enough to break resistance without BoJ support.
Trend: Neutral to bearish in the short term.
Resistance: 146.80, then 147.30 and 148.00.
Support: 145.90, followed by 145.30 and 144.75.
Forecast: USD/JPY may remain rangebound between 145.90 and 147.30. A break below 145.90 could open room toward 145.30 if USD weakens further.
Market Sentiment: Mixed. Traders are cautious as JPY reacts to both safe-haven flows and BoJ expectations.
Catalysts: US Jobless Claims, FOMC minutes, BoJ policy outlook, and geopolitical headlines.
EUR/JPY trades around 171.50, pulling back slightly from its yearly highs amid cooling market sentiment. The cross had surged in previous sessions on strong eurozone economic data and persistently dovish BoJ expectations. However, recent safe-haven demand and reduced risk appetite have stalled momentum, prompting mild profit-taking in EUR/JPY as traders reassess yield divergence.
Geopolitical Risks: Renewed global trade concerns and risk aversion have softened EUR/JPY, with some safe-haven flow returning to the yen.
US Economic Data: Indirectly influences euro-yen dynamics. A weaker USD shifts market focus to risk-sensitive pairs like EUR/JPY.
FOMC Outcome: Anticipated Fed caution sets the tone for other central banks. ECB hawkishness supports euro, but sentiment moderates flows.
Trade Policy: Tariff threats from the US raise concerns for global growth. JPY gains defensive traction while euro struggles for risk-on momentum.
Monetary Policy: The ECB remains on a tightening path, while the BoJ is still dovish — but narrowing expectations have led to temporary easing in the pair.
Trend: Bullish overall, but showing signs of exhaustion near multi-year highs.
Resistance: 171.85, then 172.50 and 173.30.
Support: 171.20, followed by 170.60 and 169.90.
Forecast: EUR/JPY may consolidate between 171.20–171.85. A clear break below 171.20 could trigger a corrective move toward 170.60 if sentiment continues to soften.
Market Sentiment: Neutral to slightly bearish in the short term. Traders are locking in profits after strong rallies.
Catalysts: Eurozone industrial data, US Jobless Claims, BoJ commentary, and global equity sentiment.
NZD/USD is trading above 0.6000, gaining modest traction as the US Dollar remains under pressure ahead of the Initial Jobless Claims report. The Kiwi benefits from improved risk sentiment and rising demand for higher-yielding assets amid a subdued greenback. Markets are closely watching US labor data and Fed commentary for further direction, while New Zealand’s economic calendar remains light.
Geopolitical Risks: Tariff-related fears have shifted market flows toward safe-haven and commodity-linked currencies, supporting NZD in a mixed-risk environment.
US Economic Data: US Initial Jobless Claims is the key short-term catalyst. Weak numbers could fuel more downside for USD, aiding NZD upside.
FOMC Outcome: Traders expect the Fed to maintain a cautious tone, reinforcing expectations of future rate cuts — which erodes USD support.
Trade Policy: US tariff threats raise global trade anxiety, but also provide relative support to currencies like NZD, which are less directly impacted.
Monetary Policy: The RBNZ remains on hold. Policy stability, combined with a softening USD, supports the pair above 0.6000.
Trend: Bullish short-term breakout above psychological 0.6000.
Resistance: 0.6035, then 0.6060 and 0.6100.
Support: 0.5980, followed by 0.5955 and 0.5920.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bullish. Traders favor commodity FX in the current macro setup while USD remains under pressure.
Catalysts: US Jobless Claims, Fed speakers, China trade data, and global equities performance.
July 10 saw Silver take center stage, surging on a renewed bid for safety while the US Dollar softened amid trade and inflation concerns. Commodity currencies like AUD and NZD climbed, supported by dollar weakness and risk-sensitive flows. The Japanese Yen’s brief strength faded as markets recalibrated BoJ expectations, while EUR/JPY’s retreat reflected broader cooling in sentiment. With risk flows in motion and jobless claims data ahead, traders remain focused on global uncertainty and shifting central bank expectations.
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