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On June 25, 2025, financial markets continue to digest the Israel-Iran ceasefire, driving a broader pullback in safe-haven and energy assets. Crude oil (WTI) dips below $65.00 as geopolitical tensions ease, reducing supply risk premiums. Gold (XAU/USD) drifts below $3,350 despite stable inflation expectations, while Silver (XAG/USD) posts modest gains near $36.00 amid ongoing dollar weakness. The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) climbs to 0.6850, supported by upbeat sentiment even after soft CPI data. Meanwhile, GBP/USD holds above 1.3600 as risk appetite lifts high-beta currencies. Attention now turns to US GDP revisions, crude oil inventory data, and further developments in Middle East diplomacy.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades below $3,350, slipping for a second straight session as the de-escalation in the Middle East reduces safe-haven demand. The metal’s pullback is further supported by firm risk sentiment and a modest recovery in Treasury yields. Despite this, gold remains underpinned by expectations of eventual Fed easing and ongoing uncertainty in global markets.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran ceasefire lowers urgency for hedging via safe-haven assets, weighing on gold’s upside potential.
US Economic Data: Markets await US GDP and jobless claims for updated growth and inflation signals; strong numbers may pressure gold further.
FOMC Outcome: Fed maintains a cautious tone, pushing potential rate cuts into late 2025. Higher-for-longer rates limit gold’s near-term appeal.
Trade Policy: Calmer global trade rhetoric reduces flight-to-safety flows, limiting short-term demand for bullion.
Monetary Policy: Elevated yields and sticky inflation expectations continue to challenge gold bulls, even as long-term Fed pivot hopes persist.
Trend: Bearish near-term with fading momentum after rejecting $3,375.
Resistance: $3,355, followed by $3,375 and $3,400.
Support: $3,335, then $3,300 and $3,280.
Forecast: Gold may range between $3,300–$3,355. A break below $3,335 could trigger further losses, while any geopolitical flare-up may offer support.
Market Sentiment: Cautious to bearish as gold fails to attract flows in the absence of conflict or dovish Fed signals.
Catalysts: US GDP, Fed commentary, bond market volatility, and Middle East updates.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades near $36.00, posting modest gains as the US Dollar weakens and risk appetite improves following the Israel-Iran ceasefire. Unlike gold, silver finds some support from both safe-haven relief and its industrial demand outlook, which is bolstered by broader optimism in the global economy. Despite the upward bias, momentum remains limited as markets await key US economic updates.
Geopolitical Risks: De-escalation in the Middle East reduces safe-haven urgency, but silver holds up due to its industrial use case and dual-role nature.
US Economic Data: Softer USD after recent data supports silver; attention now shifts to GDP revisions and PCE inflation for further cues.
FOMC Outcome: Hawkish hold by the Fed keeps real yields elevated, capping aggressive silver upside despite medium-term dovish expectations.
Trade Policy: Less friction in global trade promotes industrial metal demand, indirectly supporting silver.
Monetary Policy: Rising US yields present a headwind, but any signal of a Fed pivot later in 2025 could favor silver bulls.
Trend: Neutral to slightly bullish after holding key support levels.
Resistance: $36.20, then $36.55 and $37.00.
Support: $35.70, followed by $35.30 and $34.90.
Forecast: Silver may consolidate between $35.70–$36.55. A breakout above $36.55 could open a path to $37.00+, while renewed USD strength may push it back toward $35.30.
Market Sentiment: Slightly bullish as weaker USD supports buying interest. X posts suggest traders are watching $36.20 for a potential breakout.
Catalysts: US PCE inflation, GDP data, Eurozone PMI, and shifts in risk sentiment across global equities.
AUD/USD trades near 0.6850, extending its gains as risk appetite improves in global markets following the Israel-Iran ceasefire. Despite Australia’s softer-than-expected monthly CPI reading, the Australian Dollar continues to benefit from investor preference for high-beta currencies. A weaker US Dollar and rising commodity optimism further support the pair.
Geopolitical Risks: De-escalation in the Middle East reduces global uncertainty, fueling demand for risk-sensitive currencies like the Aussie.
US Economic Data: Upcoming US GDP and PCE inflation figures could influence USD direction; weak results may extend AUD gains.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s delay in rate cuts limits broad USD weakness but supports risk currencies like AUD as rate differentials narrow.
Trade Policy: Steady China-Australia trade relations and stable global trade dynamics benefit AUD as a commodity-linked currency.
Trend: Bullish short-term bias following a breakout above 0.6800.
Resistance: 0.6865, then 0.6900 and 0.6950.
Support: 0.6815, followed by 0.6780 and 0.6750.
Forecast: AUD/USD may push toward 0.6900 if USD weakness persists. Downside risks include a stronger-than-expected US GDP or hawkish Fed signals.
Market Sentiment: Bullish, supported by risk-on flows and commodity strength. Social media posts highlight the pair’s resilience despite soft CPI.
Catalysts: US GDP and PCE data, China’s PMI updates, and any unexpected comments from RBA or Fed officials.
GBP/USD trades above 1.3600, maintaining bullish momentum as improved risk sentiment lifts high-beta currencies. The pair benefits from a weaker US Dollar and stable UK fundamentals, with investors showing renewed appetite for sterling amid easing geopolitical tensions. Risk-on flows support the pound, even in the absence of fresh UK economic drivers.
Geopolitical Risks: The Israel-Iran ceasefire reduces global volatility, allowing GBP to climb as part of the broader shift away from safe-haven demand.
US Economic Data: Traders await Q1 GDP revisions and PCE data to gauge the USD’s next move. Soft results could lift GBP/USD further.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s wait-and-see approach caps USD strength, aiding GBP/USD’s rise in the absence of strong US data.
Trade Policy: With limited new trade tensions and improved global relations, GBP enjoys favorable positioning among risk-aligned currencies.
Monetary Policy: The Bank of England remains cautious but steady, keeping rates at 4.25%. Policy divergence with the Fed may narrow later in the year.
Trend: Bullish continuation; supported by higher lows and stronger closes above 1.3550.
Resistance: 1.3645, then 1.3730 and 1.3860.
Support: 1.3570, followed by 1.3520 and 1.3450.
Forecast: GBP/USD may climb toward 1.3645–1.3730 as long as risk sentiment remains favorable and USD weakness continues.
Market Sentiment: Bullish; X sentiment highlights GBP’s strength as a relative outperformer in the current risk-on environment.
Catalysts: US GDP and inflation data, global equity trends, BoE policy commentary, and risk tone shifts.
WTI crude oil trades just below $65.00, extending its decline as markets respond to the Israel-Iran ceasefire. The de-escalation in the Middle East has significantly reduced the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices, prompting traders to unwind bullish positions. The broader risk-on mood further pressures crude, despite ongoing concerns about demand stability and US inventory trends.
Geopolitical Risks: The Israel-Iran ceasefire alleviates fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East, removing a key support for oil prices.
US Economic Data: Upcoming Q1 GDP revisions and crude inventory data may influence near-term demand expectations. Weak data could increase downside pressure.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed remains cautious, but a delayed easing cycle still weighs on growth-sensitive commodities like oil.
Trade Policy: Reduced tensions globally and within trade corridors limit tail-risk hedging, trimming speculative flows into energy markets.
Monetary Policy: With rate cuts still projected later in 2025, slower global growth could cap oil demand expectations.
Trend: Bearish continuation after breaking below $66.20 support.
Resistance: $65.60, followed by $66.90 and $68.50.
Support: $64.20, then $63.50 and $62.00.
Forecast: WTI may test $64.00 if downside momentum continues. A rebound to $66.00 is possible only if inventories show tighter supply or geopolitical risks resurface.
Market Sentiment: Bearish bias as traders reassess crude fundamentals without the war premium. X posts highlight oil’s vulnerability to sentiment shifts.
Catalysts: US EIA crude oil stock data, GDP updates, and any surprises from OPEC+ commentary or Middle East developments.
On June 25, 2025, the ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to reshape market dynamics. Crude oil leads the downturn, slipping below $65.00 as geopolitical supply risks recede. Gold and silver offer mixed responses — with gold pressured lower and silver firming on USD weakness. Risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian Dollar and British Pound benefit from improving sentiment. As traders reassess positions, upcoming US economic data and central bank commentary will likely steer short-term market direction.
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On June 24, 2025, the surprise ceasefire between Israel and Iran reshapes global market sentiment, triggering a broad risk rally. Silver (XAG/USD) stabilizes around $36.00 after rebounding from recent pullbacks, supported by reduced safe-haven flows and a softer US dollar. The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) extends gains to 0.6825, benefiting from improved risk appetite and firmer commodity demand. The Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) strengthens sharply, driving the pair below 145.60 as dollar weakness accelerates. The US Dollar Index (DXY) slips under 98.50 amid lower demand for defensive assets. Meanwhile, crude oil (WTI) tumbles to $65.00 as geopolitical risk premiums unwind. Market attention now turns to upcoming US Consumer Confidence data, Chinese economic signals, and Fed policy commentary.
Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $36.00, showing resilience after rebounding from recent lows around $35.20. The metal stabilizes as market risk sentiment improves, underpinned by a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East and modest USD weakness.
Geopolitical Risks: The announcement of an Israel-Iran ceasefire has eased tensions, reducing safe-haven demand but supporting broader market sentiment.
US Economic Data: Recent softer US data has weighed on the dollar, offering indirect support to silver prices through improved relative value.
FOMC Outcome: Despite the Fed’s cautious tone and reluctance to rush into further cuts, expectations for policy easing in H2 2025 continue to support precious metals.
Trade Policy: With geopolitical trade risks subsiding, focus shifts back to industrial recovery which is moderately supportive of silver’s dual role.
Monetary Policy: Expectations of lower US rates amid easing inflation support non-yielding assets like silver.
Trend: Neutral to bullish as silver consolidates above key moving averages.
Resistance: $36.40, then $36.75 and $37.30.
Support: $35.50, followed by $35.00 and $34.50.
Forecast: Silver may continue to consolidate between $35.50 and $36.75, with a break above $36.75 potentially targeting the $37.30 high.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment is cautiously optimistic, as silver benefits from a weakening USD and the temporary resolution of geopolitical tensions.
Catalysts: US CB US Consumer Confidence, Middle East developments, industrial metal demand data, and Fed commentary.
AUD/USD trades near 0.6825, extending its recent rebound as the market embraces risk assets following news of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. The Australian Dollar finds support in higher commodity prices and a broadly weaker USD.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: The Middle East ceasefire reduces global tensions, fueling demand for higher-yielding currencies like the Aussie.
US Economic Data: Weaker-than-expected U.S. data has dampened USD strength, giving a relative boost to the AUD.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed remains cautious but acknowledges softening inflation—this opens the door for easing, reducing USD pressure.
Trade Policy: With geopolitical risks stabilizing, attention turns to China’s stimulus efforts which may support Australian exports.
Monetary Policy: RBA is seen holding rates steady but maintaining a watchful stance; the narrowing policy divergence with the Fed supports AUD.
Trend: Bullish recovery; momentum favors upside continuation.
Resistance: 0.6845, then 0.6880 and 0.6920.
Support: 0.6790, then 0.6750 and 0.6700.
Forecast: A confirmed break above 0.6845 could push AUD/USD toward the 0.6880 zone. A risk-off shift may cap gains near 0.6750.
Market Sentiment: Positive, with risk assets recovering globally. AUD benefits from easing geopolitical fears and commodity resilience.
Catalysts: China PMI data, Fed speakers, Australian CPI later this week, and any shifts in global risk sentiment.
USD/JPY trades near 145.60, its lowest level in over a month, as the Japanese Yen strengthens sharply amid broad USD weakness and safe-haven repositioning following a Middle East ceasefire.
Geopolitical Risks: The Israel-Iran ceasefire boosted risk appetite, but some investors rotated back into the yen as a traditional safe-haven in light of potential residual risks.
US Economic Data: Recent weak US indicators prompted a fresh wave of dollar selling, helping JPY recover lost ground.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s data-dependent tone and signs of moderating inflation have limited the appeal of the USD, aiding yen strength.
Trade Policy: Ceasefire announcements eased tariff fears, pushing traders into lower-yielding currencies such as JPY amid cautious optimism.
Trend: Bearish short-term reversal; steep decline from 147.40.
Resistance: 146.30, then 147.00 and 147.40.
Support: 145.20, then 144.75 and 144.00.
Forecast: A break below 145.20 may open the door toward 144.00; recovery above 146.30 needed to stabilize the pair.
Market Sentiment: Bearish for USD/JPY as traders unwind long USD positions and reassess carry trade risks.
Catalysts: Japanese CPI data, Fed commentary, and further geopolitical updates.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) dips below 98.50, retreating from recent highs as risk sentiment improves across global markets. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran triggered a shift from safe-haven USD to higher-yielding and risk-sensitive assets.
Geopolitical Risks: The Israel-Iran ceasefire reduced geopolitical tensions, prompting traders to rotate out of the USD and into equities and risk currencies.
US Economic Data: Recent soft figures, including weaker retail sales and slowing inflation, have undermined USD strength.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed maintained a cautious outlook but gave no strong signal for additional tightening, softening the dollar’s rate advantage.
Trade Policy: Reduced fears of trade escalation due to geopolitical de-escalation ease demand for USD as a hedge.
Monetary Policy: With rate cuts still projected in late 2025, markets anticipate less upside for the dollar from policy differentials.
Trend: Bearish as DXY breaks below 99.00 and heads toward multi-month lows.
Resistance: 98.75, then 99.00 and 99.35.
Support: 98.30, then 98.00 and 97.50.
Forecast: The index may continue sliding toward 98.00 unless data surprises support a rebound. Sustained risk-on flows could keep DXY pressured.
Market Sentiment: Bearish; improved global risk sentiment drives flows away from USD into risk and commodity-linked currencies.
Catalysts: US Consumer Confidence, Fed remarks, equity trends, and global geopolitical news
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil trades near $65.00, sharply lower from recent highs above $68.50. The decline follows the surprise announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which reduced geopolitical risk premiums built into oil prices.
Geopolitical Risks: De-escalation in the Middle East slashes the geopolitical premium in crude oil, pressuring WTI lower as supply disruption fears ease.
US Economic Data: Sluggish demand indicators from the U.S., including weak industrial activity, reinforce downside pressure on oil prices.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s steady policy stance and cooling inflation outlook temper energy demand expectations.
Trade Policy: With geopolitical tensions easing, markets shift attention to potential U.S.-China trade moves impacting global growth and energy demand.
Monetary Policy: A less aggressive Fed could support demand in the long term, but near-term crude is weighed down by a supply/demand imbalance and risk repricing.
Trend: Bearish short-term breakdown after failing to hold above $67.50.
Resistance: 1$66.20, then $67.50 and $68.90.
Support: $65.00, then $64.20 and $62.80.
Forecast: WTI may test deeper lows if $65.00 fails to hold. A bounce back to $67.50 is possible if market sentiment stabilizes or if new supply risks emerge.
Market Sentiment: Bearish as oil traders unwind war-risk hedges. Posts show a sharp shift toward caution as physical market tightness is reassessed.
Catalysts: US Crude Oil Inventory data, global demand trends, OPEC+ statements, and Middle East developments.
As June 24 unfolds, global markets pivot away from safety trades amid the Israel-Iran ceasefire. Commodities like silver remain supported, while WTI crude drops sharply on reduced war-risk premiums. The US Dollar weakens across the board, allowing risk-linked currencies like the AUD to rally. The Japanese Yen regains strength as traders reassess carry trades. With major central banks maintaining cautious tones, upcoming economic data and geopolitical developments will be critical in shaping short-term market direction.
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On June 23, 2025, the markets reflect cautious sentiment as geopolitical risks linger. Gold (XAU/USD) slips to $3,355.60, hovering near daily lows amid firmer USD. Silver (XAG/USD) holds near $36.00, showing signs of hesitation after last week’s gains. GBP/USD rebounds to 1.3450 despite a sour market mood, while GBP/JPY pushes to 198.10 amid risk appetite. USD/JPY climbs to 147.40 as the Japanese Yen weakens across the board. Crude oil (WTI) stabilizes at $76.50, with ongoing US-Iran tensions keeping traders alert. Key events ahead include US CB Consumer Confidence, Canada Retail Sales, and Trump’s July 19 tariff deadline. Posts on X highlight gold’s sluggish recovery, USD’s resilience, and the yen’s weakness.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,355.60, slipping after earlier gains, as Middle East concerns are balanced by modest USD strength.
Geopolitical Risks: Rising Israel-Iran tensions continue to support safe-haven appeal, but lack of immediate escalation limits sharp upside.
US Economic Data: Strong US data, including recent employment and housing figures, support the greenback and weigh on bullion.
FOMC Outcome: Fed maintains a hawkish stance with two projected rate cuts in 2025, lifting yields and capping gold upside.
Trade Policy: Uncertainty around Trump’s upcoming July 19 tariff decisions may enhance gold’s role as a geopolitical hedge.
Monetary Policy: Hawkish Fed tone and stronger USD reduce short-term appeal of non-yielding gold assets.
Trend: Bearish short-term bias with limited downside.
Resistance: $3,375, followed by $3,400 and $3,434.
Support: $3,345, then $3,322 and $3,300.
Forecast: Gold may range between $3,345–$3,375, with any fresh geopolitical flare-up triggering a rebound toward $3,400.
Market Sentiment: Bearish to neutral as gold struggles to extend gains amid a firm dollar; traders remain cautious ahead of key data.
Catalysts: US CB Consumer Confidence, Middle East headlines, Fed commentary, and global bond yields.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $36.00, facing strong resistance and consolidation amid easing risk aversion. After recent gains, the metal now struggles for direction as the market adopts a wait-and-see stance.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Reduced intensity in Middle East headlines is curbing safe-haven flows into silver.
US Economic Data: Supportive US data boosts the USD, putting pressure on commodity-linked assets like silver.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s Hawkish Fed tone limits upside; rate cut expectations for 2025 are unchanged but less urgent.
Trade Policy: Tariff threats and trade uncertainty offer minimal support as markets focus on industrial outlook.
Monetary Policy: Rising US yields erode demand for non-yielding metals; silver’s industrial component adds mixed pressure.
Trend: Neutral to bearish post-pullback from $37.30 highs.
Resistance: $36.55, then $37.00 and $37.30.
Support: $35.50, then $35.00 and $34.50.
Forecast: Silver may drift toward $35.50 if sentiment weakens, but upside break above $36.55 can target $37.00+.
Market Sentiment: Cautious sentiment; market awaits clearer geopolitical signals and economic direction.
Catalysts: US and China data, Eurozone confidence surveys, industrial demand outlook, and Trump trade developments.
GBP/USD is trading near 1.3450, staging a mild recovery despite broader risk-off sentiment and US-Iran geopolitical concerns. Sterling remains supported by stable UK data and positive risk sentiment in equities.
Geopolitical Risks: US-Iran tensions create volatility but fail to significantly dent GBP as the UK remains geographically removed.
US Economic Data: Strong US figures support the dollar, tempering the extent of GBP gains.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s steady rate view sustains the dollar, but no aggressive shift has reduced headwinds for GBP.
Trade Policy: Limited impact from trade tensions; market focus remains on US macro and UK growth outlook.
Trend: Bullish continuation, testing three-year highs.
Resistance: 1.3460, then 1.3730 and 1.3860.
Support: 1.3400, then 1.3350 and 1.3300.
Forecast: GBP/USD could break 1.3460 if UK data remain steady and geopolitical risk subsides; otherwise, rangebound action may continue.
Market Sentiment: X Neutral to bullish; GBP seen as resilient amid external shocks.
Catalysts: UK GDP, US CB Consumer Confidence, global equity market tone.
GBP/JPY trades around 198.00, holding firm within a bullish channel as strong UK fundamentals and weak JPY flows continue to support the cross-pair.
Geopolitical Risks: Risk sentiment recovery supports GBP/JPY, particularly as Asia sees fewer direct tensions.
US Economic Data: Indirect effect as USD/JPY drives broader yen weakness, benefiting cross-pairs.
FOMC Outcome: Supports USD and indirectly weighs on JPY due to rate differential narrative.
Trade Policy: Limited impact; JPY remains a funding currency in risk trades.
Monetary Policy: BoE’s steady hold versus BoJ’s dovish inaction drives divergence and supports GBP/JPY.
Trend: Bullish continuation; near multi-decade highs.
Resistance: 198.40, then 199.00 and 200.25.
Support: 197.50, then 196.80 and 195.90.
Forecast: Momentum remains with bulls; clean break above 198.40 may trigger extension toward 199.00+.
Market Sentiment: X Strong bullish bias amid widening yield spread.
Catalysts: BoE tone, BoJ inaction, global equities and yen risk appetite.
USD/JPY is climbing toward mid-147.00s, reaching its highest level in over a month, as the US dollar remains firm and Japanese yields stay suppressed.
Geopolitical Risks: Safe-haven flows bypass the yen in favor of USD amid shifting risk sentiment.
US Economic Data: Strong US data and elevated Treasury yields reinforce USD strength.
FOMC Outcome: Confirms hawkish Fed stance with limited rate cut flexibility; supports yield-driven JPY weakness.
Trade Policy: Trade tensions amplify safe-haven demand for USD, not JPY, reversing traditional dynamics.
Monetary Policy: BoJ remains dovish, with no clear tightening signals, intensifying yield divergence with the US.
Trend: Bullish breakout from prior consolidation
Resistance: 147.60, then 148.00 and 148.75
Support: 146.90, followed by 146.20 and 145.50
Forecast: A close above 147.60 could confirm trend continuation toward 148.75; downside capped near 146.20.
Market Sentiment: Bullish for USD/JPY as traders favor carry trades amid Fed-BoJ divergence.
Catalysts: Fed speakers, Japanese inflation data, US yield moves, and global risk tone.
On June 23, 2025, markets digest mixed geopolitical signals and central bank rhetoric. Gold ($3,355.60) and silver ($36.00) show hesitancy amid firm USD. GBP/USD (1.3450) and GBP/JPY (198.10) advance on BoE stability and yen softness. USD/JPY surges to 147.40 on divergent Fed-BoJ policies. Traders brace for US Consumer Confidence, Canada Retail Sales, and geopolitical headlines.
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On June 20, 2025, markets reflect cautious optimism as US President Trump’s two-week delay on Iran strike decisions eases immediate war fears, boosting risk appetite. Gold (XAU/USD) slips to $3,360.10, on track for weekly losses, pressured by a hawkish Fed (two rate cuts projected for 2025) and USD strength (DXY at 98.60). Silver (XAG/USD) falls to $35.80 amid profit-taking and reduced safe-haven demand. EUR/USD rises to 1.1520, supported by fading USD safe-haven flows, while GBP/USD holds at 1.3410 post-BoE’s 4.25% rate hold. AUD/USD steadies at 0.6470, NZD/USD at 0.6000, USD/JPY at 145.00, and USD/CHF consolidates at 0.8150 after SNB’s hawkish pause. WTI crude remains at $76.40, supported by Middle East tensions despite de-escalation signals. Canada’s Retail Sales and Eurozone Consumer Confidence data are eyed, alongside Trump’s pharma tariff threats and July 9 tariff deadline. Posts on X highlight USD’s retreat and gold’s dip below $3,377.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,360.10, down from $3,387, pressured by Fed’s hawkish stance and USD strength, despite Middle East tensions.
Geopolitical Risks: Trump’s delay on Iran strikes for two weeks eases immediate war fears, reducing safe-haven demand, but ongoing Israel-Iran conflict supports gold.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM vs. -0.7% expected) and Industrial Production (-0.2% vs. 0.1% expected) signal slowdown, but Fed’s hawkish outlook overshadows dovish bets.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s steady 4.25%-4.50% rates, two cuts projected for 2025, and Powell’s inflation concerns (3% year-end forecast) boost DXY to 108.60, capping gold.
Trade Policy: Trump’s pharma tariffs and July 19 deadline add uncertainty, supporting gold as a hedge.
Monetary Policy: Hawkish Fed reduces appeal of non-yielding gold, but dip-buying persists near $3,345.
Trend: Bearish short-term, testing ascending channel support at $3,345-$3,340. Negative oscillators (RSI at 48 on daily) suggest further downside.
Resistance: $3,374-$3,375, then $3,400 and $3,434-$3,435.
Support: $3,345-$3,340 (trend-channel lower boundary), then $3,323-$3,322 and $3,300.
Forecast: Gold may test $3,323 if USD strength persists. Easing Middle East tensions could push to $3,300; renewed escalation may lift to $3,400.
Market Sentiment: X posts show gold at $3,360.10, with bearish bias below $3,377. J.P. Morgan sees $3,675 by Q4 2025.
Catalysts: Canada Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, Middle East developments, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
Current Price and Context
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,360.10, down from $3,387, pressured by Fed’s hawkish stance and USD strength, despite Middle East tensions.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Trump’s delay on Iran strikes for two weeks eases immediate war fears, reducing safe-haven demand, but ongoing Israel-Iran conflict supports gold.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM vs. -0.7% expected) and Industrial Production (-0.2% vs. 0.1% expected) signal slowdown, but Fed’s hawkish outlook overshadows dovish bets.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s steady 4.25%-4.50% rates, two cuts projected for 2025, and Powell’s inflation concerns (3% year-end forecast) boost DXY to 108.60, capping gold.
Trade Policy: Trump’s pharma tariffs and July 19 deadline add uncertainty, supporting gold as a hedge.
Monetary Policy: Hawkish Fed reduces appeal of non-yielding gold, but dip-buying persists near $3,345.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bearish short-term, testing ascending channel support at $3,345-$3,340. Negative oscillators (RSI at 48 on daily) suggest further downside.
Resistance: $3,374-$3,375, then $3,400 and $3,434-$3,435.
Support: $3,345-$3,340 (trend-channel lower boundary), then $3,323-$3,322 and $3,300.
Forecast: Gold may test $3,323 if USD strength persists. Easing Middle East tensions could push to $3,300; renewed escalation may lift to $3,400.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show gold at $3,360.10, with bearish bias below $3,377. J.P. Morgan sees $3,675 by Q4 2025.
Catalysts: Canada Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, Middle East developments, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
Silver Price Forecast (XAG/USD)
Current Price and Context
Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $35.80, down from $36.75, driven by profit-taking and reduced safe-haven demand.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Trump’s delay on Iran strikes and lack of new Israel-Iran conflict developments reduce safe-haven flows, pressuring silver.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) supports Fed rate-cut bets, but hawkish Fed stance limits silver’s upside.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariff threats sustain uncertainty, aiding silver as a hedge.
China’s Economy: PBoC’s unchanged LPRs (3.00% one-year, 3.50% five-year) signal steady borrowing costs, capping industrial silver demand.
Technical Factors: Bearish momentum grows as RSI drops below 50 on 4H charts.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bearish short-term, post-pullback from $37.30. Negative oscillators signal further downside.
Resistance: $36.55 (50-period SMA, 4H chart), then $37.00 and $37.30-$37.35 (multi-year high).
Support: $35.50, then $35.00 and $34.50 (50-day SMA).
Forecast: Silver may test $35.00 if risk appetite rises. Renewed Middle East tensions could lift to $36.55; USD strength may push to $34.50.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show silver at $35.80, with bearish sentiment. CoinCodex sees $37.79 in 2025.
Catalysts: Canada Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, Middle East developments.
EUR/USD trades at 1.1520, up from 1.1465, supported by easing USD safe-haven demand and risk-on sentiment.
Geopolitical Risks: Trump’s delay on Iran strikes boosts risk appetite, supporting EUR.
ECB Policy: Hawkish ECB stance, with Lagarde signaling no further cuts, bolsters EUR.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) softens USD, but Fed’s hawkish pause (DXY at 108.60) limits EUR/USD upside.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s two-cut projection for 2025 and Powell’s inflation concerns support USD.
Trade Policy: Stalled US-EU trade talks and July 19 tariff deadline pressure EUR.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. Positive oscillators (RSI at 55) favor upside.
Resistance: 1.1570, then 1.1600 and 1.1630 (June high).
Support: 1.1500, then 1.1450-1.1445 and 1.1435-1.1430.
Forecast: EUR/USD may test 1.1570 if risk-on persists. Hawkish Fed rhetoric could push to 1.1435; dovish Eurozone data may drive to 1.1400.
Market Sentiment: X posts show EUR/USD at 1.1520, with bullish bias. J.P. Morgan sees 1.08 by December 2025.
Catalysts: Eurozone Consumer Confidence, Canada Retail Sales, Middle East developments.
GBP/USD trades at 1.3410, steady post-BoE’s 4.25% rate hold, with focus on UK data and geopolitics.
BoE Policy: BoE’s rate hold and dovish outlook (48 bps cuts by year-end) cap GBP. UK CPI at 3.4% YoY supports caution.
Geopolitical Risks: Easing US-Iran tensions boost risk appetite, limiting USD safe-haven flows.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) softens USD, but Fed’s hawkish stance supports DXY at 108.60.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariffs and July 19 deadline weigh on GBP sentiment.
UK Economy: Weak growth outlook pressures GBP, with focus on upcoming data.
Trend: Bullish, near three-year highs. Positive oscillators (RSI at 60) suggest consolidation.
Resistance: 1.3460, then 1.3730 (August 2025 forecast high) and 1.3860.
Support: 1.3400, then 1.3350 and 1.3300.
Forecast: GBP/USD may test 1.3460 if risk-on persists. Soft UK data could push to 1.3350; hawkish BoE signals may lift to 1.3730.
Market Sentiment: X posts show GBP/USD at 1.3410, with neutral bias. LongForecast sees 1.3650 by June’s end.
Catalysts: Canada Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, Middle East developments.
AUD/USD trades at 0.6470, steady amid improved risk sentiment and USD retreat.
Geopolitical Risks: Trump’s delay on Iran strikes boosts risk appetite, supporting AUD.
Australian Data: Upcoming Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data shape RBA outlook. Weak trade balance (5,413M vs. 6,100M) caps AUD.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) softens USD, aiding AUD/USD. Fed’s hawkish pause limits gains.
Trade Policy: Canada-US trade deal optimism and China’s Retail Sales (6.4% YoY) support AUD, but Trump’s tariffs add uncertainty.
PBoC Policy: Unchanged LPRs (3.00% one-year, 3.50% five-year) signal steady Chinese demand, neutral for AUD.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. RSI at 50 suggests neutral momentum.
Resistance: 0.6495 (9-day EMA), then 0.6552 (seven-month high) and 0.6687.
Support: 0.6450 (channel lower boundary), then 0.6431 (50-day EMA).
Forecast: AUD/USD may test 0.6495 if risk-on persists. USD strength could push to 0.6431; strong Australian data may lift to 0.6552.
Market Sentiment: X posts note AUD/USD at 0.6470, with bullish potential. CoinCodex sees 0.67 by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: Canada Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, Middle East developments.
Current Price and Context
NZD/USD trades at 0.6000, consolidating near 20-day EMA, supported by risk-on sentiment.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: White House’s no-strike signal on Iran boosts risk appetite, supporting NZD.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) softens USD, aiding NZD/USD, but Fed’s hawkish pause caps gains.
PBoC Policy: Unchanged LPRs (3.00% one-year, 3.50% five-year) signal stable Chinese demand, neutral for NZD, given NZ’s export reliance on China.
NZ Economy: Weak growth outlook and dovish RBNZ (2.75% cash rate) limit NZD upside.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariff threats add uncertainty, pressuring NZD.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Neutral, oscillating near 20-day EMA at 0.6003. RSI at 50 indicates indecision.
Resistance: 0.6040 (June 19 high), then 0.6100 and 0.6145.
Support: 0.5950, then 0.5846 (May 12 low) and 0.5800.
Forecast: NZD/USD may test 0.6040 if risk-on persists. USD strength could push to 0.5846; strong NZ data may lift to 0.6100.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show NZD/USD at 0.6000, with neutral bias. LongForecast sees 0.62 by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: Canada Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, Middle East developments.
On June 20, 2025, markets embrace risk-on sentiment as Trump’s Iran strike delay eases tensions, pressuring gold ($3,360.10) and silver ($35.80) while lifting EUR/USD (1.1520), AUD/USD (0.6470), and NZD/USD (0.6000). USD/JPY (145.00), USD/CHF (0.8150), and USD/CAD (1.3640) soften, with WTI ($76.40) steady. Fed’s hawkish pause, Canada Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, and Middle East developments drive volatility, with Trump’s tariffs looming.
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On June 19, 2025, markets remain cautious following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pause, maintaining rates at 4.25%-4.50% and signaling only two rate cuts by year-end 2025. Escalating Israel-Iran tensions, now in their seventh day with Trump approving potential US strikes, drive safe-haven flows. Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher to $3,370.20, but USD strength (DXY at 98.90) caps gains below $3,400. Silver (XAG/USD) holds steady at $36.75, supported by bullish technicals. EUR/USD softens to 1.1465, awaiting ECB speeches, while GBP/USD hovers at 1.3410 ahead of the BoE’s expected 4.25% rate hold. AUD/USD dips to 0.6470, USD/JPY steadies at 145.10, and USD/CHF climbs to 0.8210 ahead of the SNB’s anticipated 25 bps cut to zero. Weak US data (Retail Sales -0.9% MoM, Industrial Production -0.2%) reinforces economic slowdown concerns, while Trump’s pharma tariff threats and Middle East risks fuel volatility. Posts on X highlight gold’s resilience and USD strength post-FOMC.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,370.20, up slightly from the weekly low of $3,362, but struggles below $3,400 amid USD strength post-Fed’s hawkish pause.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran conflict escalates with IDF strikes near Arak and Khondab, and Trump’s approval of potential US attacks raises war risks, supporting safe-haven gold.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM vs. -0.7% expected) and Industrial Production (-0.2% vs. 0.1% expected) signal economic slowdown, but Fed’s hawkish stance (two cuts by 2025) limits gold’s upside.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s steady rates and Powell’s comments on tariff-driven inflation (3% year-end forecast) boost DXY to 98.90, capping gold.
Trade Policy: Trump’s looming pharma tariffs and July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs add uncertainty, supporting gold as a hedge.
Monetary Policy: Hawkish Fed outlook overshadows dovish expectations (50 bps cuts in 2025), pressuring non-yielding gold.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. Positive oscillators favor dip-buying near $3,345.
Resistance: $3,400, then $3,434-$3,435 and $3,451-$3,452 (multi-week high).
Support: $3,345 (trend-channel lower boundary), then $3,308 (50-day SMA).
Forecast: Gold may test $3,345 if USD strength persists. Dovish ECB or BoE could lift to $3,434; Middle East escalation may drive $3,500.
Market Sentiment: X posts show gold at $3,370.20, with cautious bullishness targeting $3,400. J.P. Morgan sees $3,675 by Q4 2025.
Catalysts: ECB speeches, BoE decision, SNB rate decision, Middle East developments.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $36.75, consolidating after a pullback from a multi-year high of $37.30-$37.35.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran tensions, with potential US involvement, bolster safe-haven demand.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) support Fed rate-cut bets, aiding silver.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariff threats sustain uncertainty, supporting silver as a hedge.
China’s Economy: Retail Sales (6.4% YoY) support industrial demand, but deflation (CPI -0.1%) caps gains.
Technical Factors: Bullish flag breakout and RSI easing from overbought levels validate upside potential.
Trend: Bullish, post-descending trend channel breakout. RSI supports upside but signals caution.
Resistance: $37.00, then $37.30-$37.35 (multi-year high) and $38.00.
Support: $36.55 (50-period SMA, 4H chart), then $36.30 (channel breakpoint) and $36.15.
Forecast: Silver may test $36.55 if USD strengthens. Dovish central bank signals could lift to $37.30; escalation may drive $38.00.
Market Sentiment: X posts show silver at $36.75, with bullish bias. CoinCodex sees $37.79 in 2025.
Catalysts: ECB speeches, BoE decision, SNB rate decision, Middle East developments.
EUR/USD trades at 1.1465, down slightly, pressured by USD strength and Middle East tensions, awaiting ECB speeches.
ECB Policy: Hawkish ECB, with Lagarde signaling end of rate cuts, supports EUR.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) soften USD, but Fed’s hawkish pause (DXY at 98.90) limits EUR/USD upside.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s two-cut projection for 2025 and Powell’s inflation concerns bolster USD.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran conflict and potential US strikes boost USD safe-haven flows, capping EUR/USD.
Trade Policy: Trump’s pharma tariffs add volatility, pressuring EUR.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. Positive oscillators favor upside.
Resistance: 1.1500, then 1.1570 and 1.1600.
Support: 1.1450-1.1445, then 1.1435-1.1430.
Forecast: EUR/USD may test 1.1435 if USD strength persists. Dovish ECB speeches could push to 1.1430; hawkish ECB may lift to 1.1600.
Market Sentiment: X posts show EUR/USD at 1.1465, with cautious optimism. J.P. Morgan sees 1.08 by December 2025.
Catalysts: ECB speeches (Lagarde, Nagel, de Guindos), BoE decision, SNB rate decision, Middle East developments.
GBP/USD trades at 1.3410, subdued ahead of the BoE’s expected rate hold at 4.25%.
BoE Policy: Expected rate hold and dovish outlook (48 bps cuts by year-end) pressure GBP. UK CPI at 3.4% YoY (vs. 2% target) supports caution.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) soften USD, but Fed’s hawkish stance supports DXY at 98.90.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran tensions and potential US involvement boost USD safe-haven flows, capping GBP/USD.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariffs and July 9 deadline weigh on GBP sentiment.
Trend: Bullish, near three-year highs. Positive oscillators suggest consolidation.
Resistance: 1.3460, then 1.3730 (August 2025 forecast high) and 1.3860 (LongForecast September target).
Support: 1.3400, then 1.3350 and 1.3300.
Forecast: GBP/USD may test 1.3350 if BoE is dovish. Hawkish BoE could lift to 1.3730; USD strength may push to 1.3300.
Market Sentiment: X posts show GBP/USD at 1.3410, with focus on BoE decision. LongForecast sees 1.3650 by June’s end.
Catalysts: BoE decision, ECB speeches, SNB rate decision, Middle East developments.
AUD/USD trades at 0.6470, slightly lower amid risk-off sentiment and USD strength.
Middle East Tensions: Israel-Iran conflict and potential US strikes dampen risk appetite, pressuring AUD. Iran’s ceasefire requests via Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia offer limited support.
Australian Data: Upcoming Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data will shape RBA outlook. Weak trade balance (5,413M vs. 6,100M) caps AUD.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) soften USD, but Fed’s hawkish pause limits AUD/USD upside.
Trade Policy: Canada-US trade deal optimism and China’s Retail Sales (6.4% YoY) support AUD, but Trump’s tariffs add uncertainty.
RBA Policy: Dovish RBA (3.85% cash rate) caps AUD gains.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. RSI above 50, but below 9-day EMA signals weakening momentum.
Resistance: 0.6495 (9-day EMA), then 0.6552 (seven-month high) and 0.6687.
Support: 0.6450 (channel lower boundary), then 0.6431 (50-day EMA).
Forecast: AUD/USD may test 0.6431 if USD strength persists. Dovish central bank signals could lift to 0.6552; ceasefire progress may drive 0.6687.
Market Sentiment: X posts note AUD/USD at 0.6470, with limited upside. CoinCodex sees 0.67 by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: Australian labor data, ECB speeches, BoE decision, SNB rate decision, Middle East developments.
USD/JPY trades at 145.10, steady near monthly highs, supported by USD strength post-Fed’s hawkish pause.
BoJ Policy: Reduced bets for a 2025 rate hike (delayed to Q1 2026) weaken JPY.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran tensions and potential US strikes revive JPY safe-haven demand, capping USD/JPY.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) soften USD, but Fed’s hawkish outlook (two cuts by 2025) supports DXY at 98.90.
Trade Policy: Failed US-Japan trade talks and Trump’s 25% tariffs on Japanese vehicles (July 9 deadline) pressure JPY.
Japanese Economy: Weak Machinery Orders (-9.1% in April) and Reuters Tankan poll signal caution, undermining JPY.
Trend: Bullish, post-145.00 breakout. Positive oscillators suggest upside potential.
Resistance: 145.45 (monthly high), then 146.00 and 146.25-146.30 (May 29 peak).
Support: 144.50-144.45, then 144.00 and 143.55-143.50.
Forecast: USD/JPY may test 145.45 if USD strength persists. Dovish central bank signals could push to 144.00; escalation may drive 143.50.
Market Sentiment: X posts show USD/JPY at 145.10, with bullish bias. LongForecast sees 147 by June’s end.
Catalysts: ECB speeches, BoE decision, SNB rate decision, Middle East developments.
On June 19, 2025, markets digest the Fed’s hawkish pause, with gold ($3,370.20) and silver ($36.75) supported by Middle East tensions but capped by USD strength (DXY at 98.90). EUR/USD (1.1465), GBP/USD (1.3410), and AUD/USD (0.6470) face USD pressure, while USD/JPY (145.10) and USD/CHF (0.8210) gain. USD/CAD (1.3650) softens, and WTI ($76.40) holds firm. SNB’s expected rate cut, ECB speeches, BoE’s decision, and Israel-Iran developments drive volatility, with Trump’s tariffs adding uncertainty.
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On June 18, 2025, markets are cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision, expected to hold rates at 4.25%-4.50%. Escalating Israel-Iran tensions, now in their sixth day, with Trump demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” boost safe-haven assets. Gold (XAU/USD) flatlines below $3,400 at $3,378.94, supported by geopolitical risks and Fed rate-cut bets (80% for September). Silver (XAG/USD) consolidates above $37.00 at $37.15. EUR/USD holds near 1.1500, lifted by ECB hawkishness, while GBP/USD steadies at 1.3400 awaiting UK CPI. AUD/USD rebounds to 0.6480 despite risk-off sentiment, and USD/JPY tests 144.50 amid JPY weakness post-BoJ’s steady 0.5% rate. USD/CAD edges lower to 1.3660. Weak US Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM vs. -0.7% expected) and Industrial Production (-0.2% vs. 0.1% expected) reaffirm economic softening. Key catalysts include FOMC’s “dot plot,” UK CPI, Australian labor data, and Middle East developments, with Trump’s tariff threats (pharma sector next) adding volatility. Posts on X show DXY at 98.73, reflecting cautious sentiment.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,378.94, flat below $3,400, as markets await the FOMC decision.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran conflict, with Trump’s call for Iran’s surrender, fuels safe-haven demand.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM vs. -0.7% expected) and Industrial Production (-0.2% vs. 0.1% expected) reinforce 80% Fed rate-cut odds for September, supporting gold.
FOMC Outlook: Expected rate hold at 4.25%-4.50%, with focus on Powell’s comments and the “dot plot” for rate-cut signals.
Trade Policy: Trump’s looming pharma tariffs and July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs add uncertainty, bolstering gold.
Monetary Policy: Fed’s dovish stance aids non-yielding gold, despite USD strength (DXY at 98.73).
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. Positive oscillators favor dip-buying.
Resistance: $3,400, then $3,434-$3,435 and $3,451-$3,452 (multi-week high).
Support: $3,340-$3,335 (trend-channel lower boundary), then $3,300.
Forecast: Gold may test $3,340 if FOMC is hawkish. Dovish signals could lift to $3,451; escalation may drive $3,500.
Market Sentiment: X posts show gold at $3,378.94, with cautious optimism. LongForecast sees $3,600 by Q4 2025.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, UK CPI, Middle East developments.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $37.15, consolidating above $37.00, near its highest level since February 2012.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran tensions limit silver’s downside.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) bolster Fed rate-cut bets (80%), supporting silver.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariff threats sustain uncertainty, aiding silver as a hedge.
China’s Economy: Retail Sales at 6.4% YoY support industrial demand, but deflation (CPI -0.1%) caps gains.
Technical Factors: Overbought RSI suggests caution, but bullish flag breakout supports upside.
Trend: Bullish, post-descending trend channel breakout. Slightly overbought RSI warrants caution.
Resistance: $37.50 (February 2012 high), then $38.00 and $38.50-$38.55.
Support: $36.90-$36.85 (channel resistance breakpoint), then $36.40-$36.35 and $36.00.
Forecast: Silver may test $36.85 if FOMC is hawkish. Dovish FOMC could lift to $38.00; escalation may drive $38.50.
Market Sentiment: X posts show silver at $37.15, with bullish bias. CoinCodex sees $37.79 in 2025.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, UK CPI, Middle East developments.
EUR/USD trades at 1.1500, up slightly, supported by ECB hawkishness ahead of the FOMC decision.
ECB Policy: Hawkish ECB, with Lagarde signaling end of rate cuts, supports EUR.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) pressure USD, with DXY at 98.73.
FOMC Outlook: Expected rate hold, with 80% odds of a September cut, limits USD upside.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran tensions boost USD safe-haven flows, capping EUR/USD.
Trade Policy: Trump’s pharma tariff threats add volatility.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. Positive oscillators favor upside.
Resistance: 1.1570, then 1.1600 and 1.1630 (multi-year peak).
Support: 1.1500, then 1.1450-1.1445 and 1.1435-1.1430.
Forecast: EUR/USD may test 1.1450 if FOMC is hawkish. Dovish FOMC could lift to 1.1630; escalation may push to 1.1435.
Market Sentiment: X posts show EUR/USD at 1.1500, with cautious optimism. J.P. Morgan sees 1.08 by December 2025.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, UK CPI, Middle East developments.
GBP/USD trades at 1.3400, steady near a three-year high, awaiting UK CPI and FOMC/BoE decisions.
UK Economic Data: April’s economic contraction boosts BoE rate-cut bets (three 25 bps cuts in 2025), pressuring GBP. UK CPI is critical.
BoE Policy: Dovish expectations for Thursday’s meeting cap GBP upside.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) support Fed rate-cut bets (80%), limiting GBP/USD downside.
Geopolitical Risks: Middle East tensions bolster USD safe-haven flows, capping GBP/USD.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariffs and G7 Summit uncertainties weigh on GBP.
Trend: Bullish, near three-year highs. Positive oscillators suggest consolidation.
Resistance: 1.3460, then 1.3730 (August 2025 forecast high) and 1.3860 (LongForecast September target).
Support: 1.3400, then 1.3350 and 1.3300.
Forecast: GBP/USD may test 1.3350 if UK CPI softens. Dovish FOMC could lift to 1.3730; hawkish BoE may drive 1.3860.
Market Sentiment: X posts show GBP/USD at 1.3400, with focus on central bank meetings. LongForecast sees 1.3650 by June’s end.
Catalysts: UK CPI, FOMC decision, BoE decision, Middle East developments.
AUD/USD trades at 0.6480, rebounding despite risk-off sentiment from Middle East tensions.
Middle East Tensions: Iran’s ceasefire requests via Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia boost risk sentiment, supporting AUD, but ongoing conflict limits gains.
Australian Data: Upcoming Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data will shape RBA outlook. Weak trade balance (5,413M vs. 6,100M) caps AUD.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) pressure USD, supporting AUD/USD. FOMC decision is key.
Trade Policy: Canada-US trade deal optimism and China’s Retail Sales (6.4% YoY) support AUD, but Trump’s tariffs add uncertainty.
RBA Policy: Dovish RBA (3.85% cash rate) limits AUD upside.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. RSI above 50 supports upside, but below 9-day EMA signals weakening momentum.
Resistance: 0.6495 (9-day EMA), then 0.6552 (seven-month high) and 0.6687.
Support: 0.6480 (channel lower boundary), then 0.6431 (50-day EMA).
Forecast: AUD/USD may test 0.6431 if FOMC is hawkish. Dovish FOMC could lift to 0.6552; ceasefire progress may drive 0.6687.
Market Sentiment: X posts note AUD/USD at 0.6480, with upside potential. CoinCodex sees 0.67 by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, Australian labor data, Middle East developments.
USD/JPY trades at 144.50, testing monthly lows as JPY weakens post-BoJ’s steady 0.5% rate.
BoJ Policy: BoJ’s cautious stance, delaying rate hikes to Q1 2026, undermines JPY.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran tensions bolster JPY safe-haven demand, limiting USD/JPY upside.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) pressure USD, with FOMC decision critical.
Trade Policy: Failed US-Japan trade talks at G7 Summit and Trump’s tariffs (July 9 deadline) weaken JPY.
Japanese Economy: Weak Machinery Orders (-9.1% in April) and Reuters Tankan poll signal caution, pressuring JPY.
Trend: Bullish, post-145.00 breakout. Positive oscillators suggest upside potential.
Resistance: 145.45 (monthly high), then 146.00 and 146.25-146.30 (May 29 peak).
Support: 144.50-144.45, then 144.00 and 143.55-143.50.
Forecast: USD/JPY may test 145.45 if FOMC is hawkish. Dovish FOMC could push to 144.00; escalation may drive 143.50.
Market Sentiment: X posts show USD/JPY at 144.50, with bearish bias. LongForecast sees 147 by June’s end.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, Middle East developments.
On June 18, 2025, markets are on edge awaiting the FOMC decision, with gold ($3,378.94) and silver ($37.15) steady, and WTI crude ($76.40) surging on Israel-Iran tensions. EUR/USD (1.1500), GBP/USD (1.3400), and AUD/USD (0.6480) hold firm, while USD/JPY (144.50) and USD/CAD (1.3660) soften. Weak US Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Trump’s tariff threats (pharma sector next) fuel volatility, with FOMC’s “dot plot,” UK CPI, and Middle East developments critical.
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On June 17, 2025, global markets remain volatile as Israel-Iran tensions escalate into a fifth day of conflict, with Iran threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, boosting WTI crude to $70.60. Gold (XAU/USD) retreats below $3,400 to $3,390, pressured by USD strength (DXY at 98.20) but supported by safe-haven demand. Silver (XAG/USD) holds at $36.20 amid similar dynamics. GBP/USD consolidates at 1.3570, awaiting UK CPI, Fed, and BoE decisions. AUD/USD rebounds to 0.6510 as ceasefire hopes ease tensions, while USD/JPY drops to 144.50 after the BoJ maintains rates at 0.5%. EUR/USD steadies at 1.1530, supported by ECB hawkishness. Key catalysts include US Retail Sales (forecast unavailable), FOMC and BoE meetings, UK CPI, and Middle East developments, with Trump’s tariff threats and trade talks adding uncertainty. Posts on X reflect bearish DXY sentiment near 98.20 and focus on Fed-driven volatility.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,390, down from $3,400, pressured by USD strength but supported by safe-haven demand.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran conflict, including attacks on Iran’s uranium facility, bolsters gold’s safe-haven appeal.
US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Sentiment (60.5) supports USD, but softer PPI (0.1% MoM) and 68% Fed rate-cut odds lift gold. Retail Sales data is critical.
FOMC Outlook: Expected rate hold at 4.25%-4.50% keeps focus on Powell’s comments.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariffs and G7 Summit tensions add uncertainty, supporting gold.
Monetary Policy: Fed’s dovish stance aids non-yielding gold.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. Positive oscillators favor dip-buying.
Resistance: $3,400, then $3,434-$3,435 and $3,451-$3,452 (multi-week high).
Support: $3,340-$3,335 (trend-channel lower boundary), then $3,300.
Forecast: Gold may test $3,340 if Retail Sales are strong. Dovish FOMC could lift to $3,451; escalation may drive $3,500.
Market Sentiment: X posts highlight gold’s resilience at $3,390, with $3,600 possible by Q4 2025 per Long Forecast.
Catalysts: US Retail Sales, FOMC decision, Middle East developments.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $36.20, steady despite USD uptick, supported by geopolitical risks.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran conflict limits silver’s downside.
US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Sentiment (60.5) pressures silver, but softer PPI and Fed rate-cut bets (68%) provide support.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariffs sustain uncertainty, aiding silver as a hedge.
China’s Economy: Retail Sales at 6.4% YoY support industrial demand, but deflation (CPI -0.1%) caps gains.
Monetary Policy: Fed’s dovish outlook lifts non-yielding silver.
Trend: Bullish, near 13-year highs. RSI above 50 supports upside.
Resistance: $36.89 (13-year high), then $37.00 and $37.79 (2025 forecast).
Support: $36.00, then $33.10 (50-day EMA) and $32.80.
Forecast: Silver may test $36.00 if Retail Sales are strong. Dovish FOMC could lift to $36.89; escalation may drive $37.00.
Market Sentiment: X posts show silver at $36.20, with $37.79 possible in 2025 per CoinCodex.
Catalysts: US Retail Sales, FOMC decision, Middle East developments.
AUD/USD trades at 0.6510, rebounding as ceasefire hopes ease Middle East tensions.
Middle East Tensions: Iran’s ceasefire requests via Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia boost risk sentiment, supporting AUD.
Australian Data: Upcoming Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data will shape RBA outlook. Weak trade balance (5,413M vs. 6,100M) limits gains.
US Economic Data: Strong Retail Sales could strengthen USD, pressuring AUD/USD. FOMC decision is key.
Trade Policy: Canada-US trade deal optimism at G7 Summit and China’s Retail Sales (6.4% YoY) support AUD.
RBA Policy: Dovish RBA (3.85% cash rate) caps AUD upside.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. RSI above 50 supports upside.
Resistance: 0.6552 (seven-month high), then 0.6687 and 0.6730 (channel upper boundary).
Support: 0.6506 (9-day EMA), then 0.6470 (channel lower boundary) and 0.6431 (50-day EMA).
Forecast: AUD/USD may test 0.6552 if ceasefire hopes grow. Strong Retail Sales could push to 0.6470; dovish FOMC may drive 0.6687.
Market Sentiment: X posts note AUD/USD at 0.6510, with upside potential. CoinCodex sees 0.67 by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: US Retail Sales, FOMC decision, Australian labor data, Middle East developments.
USD/JPY trades at 144.50, down after BoJ maintains rates at 0.5%, with focus on Governor Ueda’s presser.
BoJ Policy: BoJ’s unchanged 0.5% rate and bond taper plan (¥2T by Q1 2027) strengthen JPY. Ueda’s comments are critical.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran conflict bolsters JPY safe-haven demand, pressuring USD/JPY.
US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Sentiment (60.5) supports USD, but softer PPI and Fed rate-cut bets (68%) cap gains.
Trade Policy: Failed US-Japan trade talks at G7 Summit and Trump’s tariffs weaken USD/JPY.
Japanese Economy: Inflation at 3.6% YoY supports BoJ hawkishness, bolstering JPY.
Trend: Neutral, within multi-week range. Positive oscillators suggest limited downside.
Resistance: 145.00, then 145.45 (monthly high) and 146.00.
Support: 144.50-144.45, then 144.00 and 143.55-143.50.
Forecast: USD/JPY may test 144.00 if Ueda signals tightening. Dovish FOMC could push to 143.50; escalation may drive 142.75.
Market Sentiment: X posts show USD/JPY at 144.72, with bearish bias. LongForecast sees 147 by June’s end.
Catalysts: BoJ presser, US Retail Sales, FOMC decision, Middle East developments.
EUR/USD trades at 1.1530, steady as ECB hawkishness balances USD strength.
ECB Policy: ECB’s hawkish signals (end of rate cuts nearing) support EUR, with de Guindos noting EUR/USD at 1.15 poses no inflation hurdle.
US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Sentiment (60.5) bolsters USD, but Fed rate-cut bets (68%) limit EUR/USD downside.
Geopolitical Risks: Middle East tensions boost USD safe-haven flows, capping EUR/USD.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariffs and G7 Summit uncertainties add volatility.
Eurozone Economy: ECB’s 2% inflation target for 2025 supports EUR.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. Positive oscillators favor upside.
Resistance: 1.1570, then 1.1600 and 1.1630 (multi-year peak).
Support: 1.1500, then 1.1450-1.1445 and 1.1435-1.1430.
Forecast: EUR/USD may test 1.1500 if Retail Sales are strong. Dovish FOMC could lift to 1.1630; escalation may push to 1.1450.
Market Sentiment: X posts show EUR/USD at 1.1511, with cautious optimism. J.P. Morgan sees 1.08 by December 2025.
Catalysts: US Retail Sales, FOMC decision, Middle East developments.
WTI crude trades at $70.60, extending gains amid Middle East tensions, with focus on US Retail Sales and API data.
Middle East Tensions: Israel’s strike on Iran’s broadcaster and Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz (20% of global oil supply) fuel supply disruption fears, lifting WTI.
US Oil Inventories: EIA’s -3.644M barrel drop supports WTI; API data awaited.
US Economic Data: Strong Retail Sales could boost USD, pressuring WTI. FOMC’s demand signals are key.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariff threats and stalled US-China/Japan trade talks could weaken demand, capping WTI upside.
OPEC+ Output: July hike of 411,000 bpd limits gains due to oversupply concerns.
Trend: Bullish, above $70.00. RSI near 60 suggests upside potential.
Resistance: $71.18, then $72.50 and $74.00 (five-month high).
Support: $70.00, then $66.00 and $62.70 (yearly low-day close).
Forecast: WTI may test $71.18 if tensions escalate. Strong Retail Sales could push to $66.00; Strait closure fears may drive $74.00.
Market Sentiment: X posts show WTI bullishness, with $80 possible if tensions persist. LongForecast sees $73.52 by June.
Catalysts: US Retail Sales, API data, FOMC decision, Middle East developments, OPEC+ updates.
On June 17, 2025, Israel-Iran tensions, with Iran’s Strait of Hormuz threat, drive WTI crude ($70.60) and gold ($3,390), while silver ($36.20) holds steady. GBP/USD (1.3570) awaits UK CPI and central bank decisions, AUD/USD (0.6510) rebounds on ceasefire hopes, and USD/JPY (144.50) dips post-BoJ. EUR/USD (1.1530) remains resilient, with DXY (98.20) bearish. US Retail Sales, FOMC, BoE, and Middle East developments are key, with Trump’s tariffs fueling volatility.
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On June 16, 2025, global markets are dominated by escalating Israel-Iran tensions, with Iran launching missile barrages on Israel, boosting safe-haven assets. Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates at $3,425 after hitting a two-month high, supported by Middle East risks and Fed rate-cut bets (68% for September). Silver (XAG/USD) dips to $36.20, pressured by USD recovery (DXY at 98.25) but supported by geopolitical tensions. EUR/USD softens to 1.1530, despite ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stating that EUR/USD at 1.15 poses no obstacle to the ECB’s 2% inflation target. USD/JPY rises to 144.75, limited by JPY safe-haven demand and BoJ tightening expectations. AUD/USD holds at 0.6460, while USD/CAD rebounds to 1.3600 as WTI crude corrects to $71.90. Key catalysts include the FOMC and BoJ decisions, G7 Summit trade talks, and Middle East developments, with Trump’s tariff threats adding uncertainty.
Current Price and Context
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,425, consolidating near a two-month high of $3,452-$3,453, driven by geopolitical risks.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Iran’s missile barrages on Israel and Israel’s intensified strikes on Iran fuel safe-haven demand.
US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Sentiment (60.5) supports USD, but softer PPI (0.1% MoM) and 68% Fed rate-cut odds bolster gold. FOMC decision is key.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s tariff threats (50% on appliances) add uncertainty, supporting gold as a hedge.
US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s tariff policy and $4T bill fuel volatility, aiding gold.
Monetary Policy: Fed’s dovish outlook supports non-yielding gold, while ECB’s hawkish stance limits USD upside.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bullish, above $3,400 with an ascending trend channel. Positive oscillators favor dip-buying.
Resistance: $3,452-$3,453, then $3,500 (April peak).
Support: $3,400, then $3,360 (trend-channel lower boundary).
Forecast: Gold may test $3,452 if tensions escalate. Hawkish FOMC could push to $3,400; further strikes may drive $3,500.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts highlight gold at $3,425, with $3,600 possible by Q4 2025 per Long Forecast.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, BoJ policy, G7 Summit, Middle East developments.
Current Price and Context
Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $36.20, down slightly, pressured by USD recovery but supported by geopolitical risks.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran conflict escalation boosts safe-haven demand, limiting silver’s downside.
US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Sentiment (60.5) bolsters USD, pressuring silver. Softer PPI (0.1% MoM) and Fed rate-cut bets (68%) provide support.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s tariff threats sustain uncertainty, aiding silver as a hedge.
China’s Economy: Trade surplus (CNY743.56B) supports industrial demand, but deflation (CPI -0.1%) caps gains.
Monetary Policy: Fed’s dovish outlook lifts non-yielding silver.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bullish, near 13-year highs. RSI above 50 supports upside.
Resistance: $36.89 (13-year high), then $37.00 and $37.79 (2025 forecast).
Support: $36.00, then $33.10 (50-day EMA) and $32.80.
Forecast: Silver may test $36.00 if FOMC is hawkish. Dovish FOMC could lift to $36.89; escalation may drive $37.00.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show silver at $36.20, with $37.79 possible in 2025 per CoinCodex.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, BoJ policy, G7 Summit, Middle East developments.
Current Price and Context
EUR/USD trades at 1.1530, down slightly below mid-1.1500s, amid a modest USD uptick and anticipation for the FOMC decision.
Key Drivers
ECB Policy: ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that EUR/USD at 1.15 is “no big obstacle” to the 2% inflation target, with balanced risks and limited undershooting concerns. Hawkish ECB signals (nearing end of rate cuts) support EUR.
US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Consumer Sentiment (60.5 vs. 53.5 expected) supports USD, but 68% Fed rate-cut odds for September limit gains. FOMC’s Wednesday decision is critical.
Geopolitical Risks: Iran’s missile attacks on Israel and ongoing strikes boost safe-haven USD flows, pressuring EUR/USD.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s tariff threats (50% on steel derivatives) and G7 Summit talks with Canada add USD uncertainty, supporting EUR/USD.
Eurozone Economy: ECB projects 2% inflation in 2025, falling to 1.6% in 2026, with 0.9% GDP growth, reinforcing hawkish stance.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bullish, within an ascending channel. Positive daily oscillators favor upside.
Resistance: 1.1570, then 1.1600 and 1.1630 (multi-year peak).
Support: 1.1500, then 1.1450-1.1445 and 1.1435-1.1430 (trend-channel support).
Forecast: EUR/USD may test 1.1500 if FOMC signals no rate cuts. Dovish FOMC could lift to 1.1630; escalation in Middle East may push to 1.1450.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show EUR/USD at 1.1511, with cautious optimism. J.P. Morgan sees 1.08 by December 2025.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, BoJ policy, G7 Summit, Middle East developments.
Current Price and Context
USD/JPY trades at 144.75, up slightly, but capped by JPY safe-haven demand and BoJ expectations.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Iran’s missile attacks and Israel’s strikes bolster JPY safe-haven status, limiting USD/JPY upside.
Monetary Policy: BoJ’s expected steady rate (0.5%) and potential JGB purchase reduction signal tightening, supporting JPY. Fed’s 68% rate-cut odds weaken USD.
US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Sentiment (60.5) supports USD, but softer PPI (0.1% MoM) caps gains. FOMC decision is critical.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s tariff threats add USD uncertainty, aiding JPY.
Japanese Economy: Inflation at 3.6% YoY supports BoJ hawkishness, bolstering JPY.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Neutral, within a multi-week range. Oscillators suggest limited upside.
Resistance: 144.75, then 145.00 and 145.45 (monthly high).
Support: 144.00, then 143.55-143.50 and 142.80-142.75.
Forecast: USD/JPY may test 145.00 if FOMC is hawkish. Dovish FOMC could push to 143.50; escalation may drive 142.75.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show USD/JPY at 144.50, with bearish bias. LongForecast sees 147 by June’s end.
Catalysts: BoJ decision, FOMC decision, G7 Summit, Middle East developments.
Current Price and Context
AUD/USD trades at 0.6460, steady despite risk-off sentiment from Middle East tensions.
Key Drivers
Middle East Tensions: Iran-Israel conflict dampens risk appetite, pressuring AUD.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s trade deal awaits Xi’s approval, but 50% tariffs and G7 Summit talks with Canada impact AUD.
Australian Data: Consumer Inflation Expectations at 5% signal RBA caution, but weak trade balance (5,413M vs. 6,100M) limits AUD gains.
US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Sentiment (60.5) bolsters USD, but Fed rate-cut bets (68%) cap AUD downside. FOMC decision is key.
RBA Policy: Dovish RBA (3.85% cash rate) caps AUD upside.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bearish, below ascending channel. RSI near 50 suggests neutral momentum.
Resistance: 0.6495 (9-day EMA), then 0.6538 and 0.6687.
Support: 0.6423 (50-day EMA), then 0.5914 (March 2020 low).
Forecast: AUD/USD may test 0.6423 if FOMC is hawkish. Dovish FOMC could lift to 0.6495; trade deal progress may drive 0.6538.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts note AUD/USD at 0.6452, with downside risks. CoinCodex sees 0.67 by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, BoJ policy, G7 Summit, Middle East developments.
Current Price and Context
WTI crude trades at $71.90, down from $74.74, but supported by Middle East supply disruption fears.
Key Drivers
Middle East Tensions: Iran’s missile attacks and Israel’s strikes raise supply concerns, supporting WTI.
US Oil Inventories: EIA’s -3.644M barrel drop (vs. +100K expected) bolsters WTI.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s tariff threats and trade deal uncertainty could drag WTI if demand weakens.
OPEC+ Output: July hike of 411,000 bpd caps gains due to oversupply fears.
US Economic Data: FOMC decision could signal demand trends, impacting WTI.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bullish, above $70.00. RSI near 60 suggests upside potential.
Resistance: $72.50, then $74.00 (five-month high) and $76.00.
Support: $70.00, then $66.00 and $63.20-$63.30.
Forecast: WTI may test $72.50 if tensions persist. Hawkish FOMC could push to $66.00; further escalation may drive $74.00.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show WTI at $71.90, with $80 possible if tensions escalate per Long Forecast.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, BoJ policy, G7 Summit, Middle East developments, OPEC+ updates.
On June 16, 2025, Iran-Israel tensions drive gold ($3,425) and silver ($36.20), while WTI crude ($71.90) corrects but holds firm. EUR/USD (1.1530) softens, USD/JPY (144.75) rises, AUD/USD (0.6460) steadies, and USD/CAD (1.3600) rebounds. ECB’s de Guindos sees EUR/USD at 1.15 as no inflation hurdle, while FOMC and BoJ decisions, G7 Summit trade talks, and Middle East developments are key. Trump’s tariff threats add volatility.
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On June 13, 2025, global markets are gripped by heightened geopolitical tensions following Israel’s preemptive airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, boosting safe-haven assets and oil prices. Gold (XAU/USD) surges to $3,428, nearing five-month highs, driven by Middle East risks and Fed rate-cut bets (68% for September). Silver (XAG/USD) climbs to $36.50, supported by similar dynamics. WTI crude soars to $72.05, a four-month high, as fears of supply disruptions mount. The Japanese Yen strengthens, pushing USD/JPY to 143.00, fueled by safe-haven demand and BoJ tightening expectations. AUD/USD falls to 0.6460, hit by risk-off sentiment, while EUR/USD retreats to 1.1530 amid USD safe-haven flows. EUR/JPY holds at 165.80, balancing JPY strength and ECB hawkishness. Key catalysts include US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (forecast unavailable), US-China trade updates, and Middle East developments, with Trump’s tariff threats and Iran nuclear talks adding volatility.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,428, up 1.26%, nearing five-month highs after Israel’s airstrikes on Iran.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $36.50, up from $36.30, supported by geopolitical risks and USD weakness.
AUD/USD trades at 0.6460, down 1%, testing the 50-day EMA amid risk-off sentiment from Middle East tensions.
USD/JPY trades at 143.00, down from 144.00, as JPY gains on safe-haven demand despite USD recovery.
EUR/USD trades at 1.1530, down from 1.1631, as USD gains safe-haven flows amid Middle East tensions.
WTI crude trades at $72.05, up 6.20%, hitting a four-month high after Israel’s airstrikes on Iran.
On June 13, 2025, Israel’s airstrikes on Iran drive WTI crude ($72.05), gold ($3,428), and silver ($36.50) higher, while AUD/USD (0.6460) falls amid risk-off sentiment. USD/JPY (143.00) drops on JPY strength, EUR/USD (1.1530) softens, and EUR/JPY (165.80) holds steady. US Michigan Consumer Sentiment, US-China trade updates, and Middle East developments are critical, with Trump’s tariff threats and Iran nuclear talks (set for Sunday) fueling volatility.
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On June 12, 2025, global markets are navigating a complex landscape of escalating Middle East tensions, US-China trade deal developments, and heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September (68% probability). EUR/JPY pulls back to 165.80 from an eight-month high, reflecting USD weakness (DXY at 98.30) and safe-haven JPY demand. AUD/USD tests 0.6500, declining amid Israel-Iran tensions despite softer US CPI (2.4% YoY vs. 2.5% expected). EUR/USD surges to 1.1530, a two-month high, driven by USD selling and ECB hawkishness. USD/JPY drops below 144.00, pressured by JPY strength and Fed rate-cut bets. Gold (XAU/USD) holds near $3,340, while silver (XAG/USD) rises to $36.30, both supported by geopolitical risks. WTI crude jumps to $67.00, fueled by Middle East tensions and an EIA stockpile drop (-3.644M barrels). Key catalysts include US PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, and US-China trade updates, with tariff uncertainties and Iran nuclear talks in focus.
Current Price and Context
EUR/JPY trades at 165.80, pulling back from an eight-month high of 166.43, driven by JPY safe-haven demand and USD weakness.
Key Drivers
Technical Outlook
Sentiment and Catalysts
Current Price and Context
AUD/USD trades at 0.6500, testing support amid Middle East tensions, despite USD weakness from softer CPI.
Key Drivers
Middle East Tensions: Israel-Iran escalation and US evacuation plans dampen risk sentiment, pressuring risk-sensitive AUD.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s trade deal (pending Xi’s approval) and China’s rare-earth restrictions impact AUD, given Australia’s trade ties with China (CNY743.56B surplus).
Australian Data: Consumer Inflation Expectations at 5% (vs. 4.1% prior) signal RBA caution, but trade balance surplus (5,413M vs. 6,100M expected) limits AUD gains.
US Economic Data: Softer CPI (2.4% YoY) boosts Fed rate-cut odds (68% for September), weakening USD and supporting AUD. PPI data is key.
RBA Policy: Dovish RBA (3.85% cash rate, projected 3.20% by 2027) caps AUD upside.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bullish bias weakening, testing channel’s lower boundary. RSI above 50 but near 9-day EMA (0.6492).
Resistance: 0.6538 (seven-month high), then 0.6687 (eight-month high) and 0.6720 (channel’s upper boundary).
Support: 0.6492 (9-day EMA), then 0.6490 (channel’s lower boundary) and 0.6419 (50-day EMA).
Forecast: AUD/USD may hold 0.6490 if CPI-driven USD weakness persists. Middle East escalation could push to 0.6419; trade deal approval may drive 0.6538.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts note AUD/USD at 0.6492, with downside risk from geopolitical tensions. CoinCodex sees 0.67 by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: US PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, US-China trade updates, Middle East developments.
Current Price and Context
EUR/USD trades at 1.1530, a two-month high, driven by USD selling and ECB hawkishness.
Key Drivers
US Economic Data: Softer CPI (2.4% YoY vs. 2.5% expected) and 68% Fed rate-cut odds for September weaken USD, boosting EUR/USD. PPI data awaited.
ECB Policy: Hawkish signals (end of rate cuts nearing) support EUR, contrasting with Fed’s dovish outlook.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s tariff threats (unilateral rates in two weeks) add USD uncertainty, supporting EUR/USD.
Geopolitical Risks: Middle East tensions indirectly bolster EUR as a safe-haven relative to USD.
US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s tariff policy and $4T bill fuel USD volatility, aiding EUR/USD.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bullish, above 1.15. RSI nearing overbought levels suggests caution.
Resistance: 1.1530 (current high), then 1.1550 and 1.1600.
Support: 1.1450, then 1.1400 and 1.1300.
Forecast: EUR/USD may test 1.1550 if PPI is soft. Strong PPI could push to 1.1450; trade uncertainty may drive 1.1600.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show EUR/USD at 1.1511, with bullish momentum. J.P. Morgan sees 1.08 by December 2025.
Catalysts: US PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, US-China trade updates, Middle East developments.
Current Price and Context
USD/JPY trades near 144.00, down 0.35%, pressured by JPY safe-haven demand and USD weakness.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran tensions and US evacuations in Iraq bolster JPY, pressuring USD/JPY.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s tariff threats and China’s rare-earth restrictions add USD uncertainty, supporting JPY.
Monetary Policy: BoJ’s tightening expectations (3.6% inflation) contrast with Fed’s 68% rate-cut odds for September, weakening USD/JPY.
US Economic Data: Softer CPI (2.4% YoY) and falling Treasury yields (2-year at 4.01%) drag USD lower. PPI data is critical.
Japanese Economy: Stable GDP (0% Q1) and inflation (3.6% YoY) support JPY.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bearish, below 144.55-144.50. Negative oscillators favor downside.
Resistance: 144.55 (Asian session peak), then 145.00 and 145.45 (two-week high).
Support: 143.70 (Asian session low), then 143.00 and 142.62-142.60.
Forecast: USD/JPY may test 143.70 if PPI is strong. Weak PPI could push to 143.00; Middle East escalation may drive 142.60.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show USD/JPY at 143.96, with bearish momentum. LongForecast sees 147 by June’s end.
Catalysts: US PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, US-China trade updates, Middle East developments, BoJ signals.
Current Price and Context
Gold (XAU/USD) trades near $3,340, supported by geopolitical risks and USD weakness.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran tensions and US evacuations in Iraq drive safe-haven demand, supporting gold.
US Economic Data: Softer CPI (2.4% YoY) and 68% Fed rate-cut odds weaken USD, boosting gold. PPI data is key.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s tariff threats add uncertainty, supporting gold as a hedge.
US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s $4T bill and tariff policy fuel volatility, aiding gold.
Monetary Policy: Fed’s dovish outlook contrasts with ECB/BoJ tightening, supporting non-yielding gold.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bullish, near weekly highs. RSI above 50 supports upside.
Resistance: $3,352-$3,353, then $3,377-$3,378 and $3,400.
Support: $3,323-$3,322, then $3,300 and $3,288-$3,287 (200-period SMA).
Forecast: Gold may test $3,352 if PPI is soft. Strong PPI could push to $3,300; Middle East escalation may drive $3,400.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts suggest gold resilience at $3,340, with $3,500 possible if risks escalate. Long Forecast projects $3,600 by Q4 2025.
Catalysts: US PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, US-China trade updates, Middle East developments.
Current Price and Context
WTI crude trades at $67.00, near two-month highs, driven by Middle East tensions and an EIA stockpile decline.
Key Drivers
Middle East Tensions: Israel-Iran escalation and US evacuations in Iraq raise supply concerns, boosting WTI.
US Oil Inventories: EIA reports a -3.644M barrel drop, tighter than the +100K expected, supporting WTI.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s “done” deal awaits confirmation, but tariff uncertainty could drag WTI if demand falters.
OPEC+ Output: July hike of 411,000 bpd caps gains due to oversupply fears.
US Economic Data: PPI could signal demand trends, impacting WTI.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bullish, above $63.50. RSI near 60 suggests further upside.
Resistance: $67.50, then $68.00 and $70.00.
Support: $66.00, then $63.20-$63.30 and $60.00.
Forecast: WTI may test $67.50 if tensions persist. Strong PPI could push to $63.20; trade deal approval may drive $68.00.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show WTI at $67.00, with $70 possible by Q4 2025 per Long Forecast.
Catalysts: US PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, US-China trade updates, Middle East developments, OPEC+ updates.
On June 12, 2025, markets are driven by Middle East tensions, lifting WTI crude ($67.00), gold ($3,340), and silver ($36.30), while pressuring AUD/USD (0.6500). EUR/JPY (165.80) pulls back, EUR/USD (1.1530) surges, and USD/JPY (144.00) dips amid USD weakness (DXY at 98.30). US PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, and US-China trade updates are critical, with Israel-Iran risks and Fed rate-cut bets (68% for September) adding volatility.
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