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Oil Slips as OPEC+ Output Plans Weigh on Markets | 29th October 2025

OPEC+ Pressure Mounts

Global markets opened on a cautious note today as OPEC+ output plans weighed on oil prices and broader risk sentiment. Crude slipped back toward the $60 mark after reports indicated the alliance may raise production quotas at its upcoming meeting, sparking renewed supply concerns.

Meanwhile, traders remain on edge ahead of the FOMC rate decision, with the US Dollar steadying and commodity currencies facing mild pressure. Precious metals held near recent ranges, supported by lingering rate-cut expectations, while equity markets hovered in consolidation as investors awaited policy clarity from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada.


Gold Price Forecast (XAU/USD)

Current Price and Context

Gold is trading around $4,250, recovering modestly from its three-week low as traders position ahead of the FOMC rate decision. The metal’s rebound remains capped by a firm US Dollar, while investors balance rate-cut hopes against improving global trade sentiment.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Diminished safe-haven demand amid easing global tensions has tempered Gold’s upside momentum.

  • US Economic Data: Mixed inflation data and stable consumer spending suggest moderate economic resilience, limiting aggressive rate-cut bets.

  • FOMC Outcome: A dovish tone could lift bullion, while a hawkish surprise may pressure prices back toward recent lows.

  • Trade Policy: Optimism over trade progress between the US and China reduces hedging demand for Gold.

  • Monetary Policy: Central banks maintaining accommodative stances continue to offer underlying support to the metal.

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Neutral to slightly bullish ahead of the Fed decision.

  • Resistance: $4,280, followed by $4,320.

  • Support: $4,210 and $4,150.

  • Forecast: Gold is likely to trade sideways within $4,200–$4,300 before direction emerges post-FOMC.

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Cautious optimism prevails as traders await policy clarity.

  • Catalysts: The Fed’s tone and any Dollar volatility post-announcement could trigger sharp moves.

USD/CAD Forecast

Current Price and Context

The pair trades near 1.3940, maintaining weakness ahead of simultaneous Fed and Bank of Canada decisions. A firmer oil market and expectations of a slightly dovish BoC stance have limited upside for the greenback.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Stable North American trade relations keep volatility contained.

  • US Economic Data: Mixed CPI and labor data support a cautious Fed approach.

  • FOMC Outcome: A dovish Fed could further pressure the USD.

  • Trade Policy: Steady US-Canada trade ties offer limited directional impact.

  • Monetary Policy: Divergent expectations between the BoC and Fed will guide short-term moves.

     

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Sideways-to-bearish bias below 1.3950.

  • Resistance: 1.3980 and 1.4020.

  • Support: 1.3900 and 1.3850.

  • Forecast: Range-bound within 1.3880–1.3980 pending dual central bank updates.

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Traders adopt a neutral stance ahead of back-to-back rate decisions.

  • Catalysts: Fed and BoC policy statements will dictate near-term trend direction.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast

Current Price and Context

WTI is hovering near $60.00, slipping as traders digest reports that OPEC+ may increase production quotas in its upcoming meeting. The move sparked concerns about oversupply, offsetting optimism from stronger demand expectations in Asia.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Middle East tensions remain subdued, allowing supply dynamics to dominate market direction.

  • US Economic Data: Slightly higher inventories and mixed refinery runs add pressure to near-term prices.

  • FOMC Outcome: Any dovish stance may boost global growth sentiment and indirectly support oil.

  • Trade Policy: Easing US-China tensions could stabilize demand outlooks, limiting further downside.

  • Monetary Policy: Expectations of slower rate cuts keep the growth outlook moderate.

     

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Mildly bearish with downside bias near $60.00.

  • Resistance: $60.80 and $61.50.

  • Support: $59.40 and $58.70.

  • Forecast: Oil may trade within $59–$61 pending OPEC+ confirmation; a production hike could deepen losses.

     

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Traders remain cautious amid oversupply fears.

  • Catalysts: OPEC+ announcements and EIA inventory data will be the immediate drivers.

EUR/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

EUR/USD trades just below 1.1650, slipping modestly as investors await the Fed’s tone on future rate moves. The euro remains range-bound amid uncertainty over US inflation and cautious ECB commentary.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Easing European political tensions offer limited market impact.

  • US Economic Data: Stable core inflation keeps Dollar demand intact pre-FOMC.

  • FOMC Outcome: A dovish tone could lift EUR/USD toward resistance.

  • Trade Policy: Positive trade developments support the eurozone’s growth sentiment.

  • Monetary Policy: ECB remains aligned with gradual easing expectations.

     

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Neutral to slightly bearish.

  • Resistance:1.1680 and 1.1720.

  • Support: 1.1620 and 1.1580.

  • Forecast: Likely range between 1.1600–1.1700 before Fed clarity.

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Mixed as traders weigh divergent monetary paths

  • Catalysts: Fed’s policy statement and ECB commentary.

NZD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

NZD/USD trades near 0.5780, holding close to recent highs as optimism around trade progress and a softer USD supports the Kiwi. However, gains remain capped by cautious sentiment ahead of the Fed decision.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Improving US-China relations boost export outlook for New Zealand.

  • US Economic Data: Stable inflation and moderate job growth anchor USD demand.

  • FOMC Outcome: A dovish tilt could fuel further upside in NZD/USD.

  • Trade Policy: Continued easing in trade restrictions favors the Kiwi’s export-driven economy.

  • Monetary Policy: The RBNZ’s neutral tone limits aggressive rate speculation.

     

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Bullish bias within consolidation.

  • Resistance: 0.5800 and 0.5835.

  • Support: 0.5740 and 0.5700.

  • Forecast: Potential breakout above 0.5800 if Fed signals easing bias.

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Mildly positive on trade optimism.

  • Catalysts: Fed decision and US-China trade updates.

Wrap-up

Markets are set for a pivotal midweek session as traders navigate a double dose of catalysts from OPEC+ and the Fed. Oil’s retracement highlights the tension between supply-side expansion and lingering demand uncertainty, while currency pairs reflect pre-Fed caution across major economies.

As the day unfolds, attention will turn to how central bank statements and OPEC’s final production stance shape near-term momentum in energy, commodities, and the US Dollar — setting the tone for the next phase of global market direction.

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USD/JPY Forecast

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